Upper tails for triangles

With $\xi$ the number of triangles in the usual (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi) random graph $G(m,p)$, $p>1/m$ and $\eta>0$, we show (for some $C_{\eta}>0$) \Pr(\xi> (1+\eta)\E \xi) < \exp[-C_{\eta}\min{m^2p^2\log(1/p),m^3p^3}]. This is tight up to the value of $C_{\eta}$.Comment: 10 page

The missing log in large deviations for triangle counts

This paper solves the problem of sharp large deviation estimates for the upper tail of the number of triangles in an Erdos-Renyi random graph, by establishing a logarithmic factor in the exponent that was missing till now. It is possible that the method of proof may extend to general subgraph counts.Comment: 15 pages. Title changed. To appear in Random Structures Algorithm

On the lower tail variational problem for random graphs

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail probability $\mathbb{P}(X_H \le (1-\delta) \mathbb{E} X_H)$ for fixed $0 < \delta < 1$. Thanks to the results of Chatterjee, Dembo, and Varadhan, this large deviation problem has been reduced to a natural variational problem over graphons, at least for $p \ge n^{-\alpha_H}$ (and conjecturally for a larger range of $p$). We study this variational problem and provide a partial characterization of the so-called "replica symmetric" phase. Informally, our main result says that for every $H$, and $0 < \delta < \delta_H$ for some $\delta_H > 0$, as $p \to 0$ slowly, the main contribution to the lower tail probability comes from Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs with a uniformly tilted edge density. On the other hand, this is false for non-bipartite $H$ and $\delta$ close to 1.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Upper tails and independence polynomials in random graphs

The upper tail problem in the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph $G\sim\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ asks to estimate the probability that the number of copies of a graph $H$ in $G$ exceeds its expectation by a factor $1+\delta$. Chatterjee and Dembo showed that in the sparse regime of $p\to 0$ as $n\to\infty$ with $p \geq n^{-\alpha}$ for an explicit $\alpha=\alpha_H>0$, this problem reduces to a natural variational problem on weighted graphs, which was thereafter asymptotically solved by two of the authors in the case where $H$ is a clique. Here we extend the latter work to any fixed graph $H$ and determine a function $c_H(\delta)$ such that, for $p$ as above and any fixed $\delta>0$, the upper tail probability is $\exp[-(c_H(\delta)+o(1))n^2 p^\Delta \log(1/p)]$, where $\Delta$ is the maximum degree of $H$. As it turns out, the leading order constant in the large deviation rate function, $c_H(\delta)$, is governed by the independence polynomial of $H$, defined as $P_H(x)=\sum i_H(k) x^k$ where $i_H(k)$ is the number of independent sets of size $k$ in $H$. For instance, if $H$ is a regular graph on $m$ vertices, then $c_H(\delta)$ is the minimum between $\frac12 \delta^{2/m}$ and the unique positive solution of $P_H(x) = 1+\delta$