An Adaptive Semi-Parametric and Context-Based Approach to Unsupervised Change Detection in Multitemporal Remote-Sensing Images

In this paper, a novel automatic approach to the unsupervised identification of changes in multitemporal remote-sensing images is proposed. This approach, unlike classical ones, is based on the formulation of the unsupervised change-detection problem in terms of the Bayesian decision theory. In this context, an adaptive semi-parametric technique for the unsupervised estimation of the statistical terms associated with the gray levels of changed and unchanged pixels in a difference image is presented. Such a technique exploits the effectivenesses of two theoretically well-founded estimation procedures: the reduced Parzen estimate (RPE) procedure and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Then, thanks to the resulting estimates and to a Markov Random Field (MRF) approach used to model the spatial-contextual information contained in the multitemporal images considered, a change detection map is generated. The adaptive semi-parametric nature of the proposed technique allows its application to different kinds of remote-sensing images. Experimental results, obtained on two sets of multitemporal remote-sensing images acquired by two different sensors, confirm the validity of the proposed approach

Change-Point Testing and Estimation for Risk Measures in Time Series

We investigate methods of change-point testing and confidence interval construction for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. A key aspect of our work is the ability to detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of time series marginal distributions. Unlike extant approaches for detecting tail structural changes using quantities such as tail index, our approach does not require parametric modeling of the tail and detects more general changes in the tail. Additionally, our methods are based on the recently introduced self-normalization technique for time series, allowing for statistical analysis without the issues of consistent standard error estimation. The theoretical foundation for our methods are functional central limit theorems, which we develop under weak assumptions. An empirical study of S&P 500 returns and US 30-Year Treasury bonds illustrates the practical use of our methods in detecting and quantifying market instability via the tails of financial time series during times of financial crisis