Maximal Information Coefficient Based Residential Photovoltaic Power Generation Disaggregation

Due to policy support, low cost and easy applicability, distribution photovoltaic systems (DPVSs) are increasingly popular among residential community. However, small-scale DPVSs of less than 10 kWp are always installed behind the meter (BTM), which results in the invisible of the photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Only access of composite power data can result in non-optimal distribution network control and optimization, leading to a series of energy management problems. In order to solve the aforementioned problems, this paper proposes a BTM composite power disaggregation method focusing on small-scale DPVSs, with only composite power data of residential users in a community, without relying on weather data and models assumption. Considering that community users’ DPVSs usually exhibit approximate output characteristics, neighboring composite power is used to extract PV power generation information as mutual proxies. After obtaining approximate PV proxy data by subtracting composite power of inter-users, a grid search algorithm guided by Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) is performed to obtain final PV power generation disaggregation results. The proposed method is evaluated using data gathered from residential customers located in Ithaca, New York and Austin, Texas in real-life scenarios. Testing results show that our proposed method achieve considerable disaggregation accuracy in the absence of solar radiation and temperature data as compared to other state-of-art methods

Smart Metering System: Developing New Designs to Improve Privacy and Functionality

This PhD project aims to develop a novel smart metering system that plays a dual role: Fulfil basic functions (metering, billing, management of demand for energy in grids) and protect households from privacy intrusions whilst enabling them a degree of freedom. The first two chapters of the thesis will introduce the research background and a detailed literature review on state-of-the-art works for protecting smart meter data. Chapter 3 discusses theory foundations for smart meter data analytics, including machine learning, deep learning, and information theory foundations. The rest of the thesis is split into two parts, ‘Privacy’ and ‘Functionality’, respectively. In the ‘Privacy’ part, the overall smart metering system, as well as privacy configurations, are presented. A threat/adversary model is developed at first. Then a multi-channel smart metering system is designed to reduce the privacy risks of the adversary. Each channel of the system is responsible for one functionality by transmitting different granular smart meter data. In addition, the privacy boundary of the smart meter data in the proposed system is also discovered by introducing a data mining algorithm. By employing the algorithm, a three-level privacy boundary is concluded. Furthermore, a differentially private federated learning-based value-added service platform is designed to provide flexible privacy guarantees to consumers and balance the trade-off between privacy loss and service accuracy. In the ‘Functionality’ part, three feeder-level functionalities: load forecasting, solar energy separation, and energy disaggregation are evaluated. These functionalities will increase thepredictability, visibility, and controllability of the distributed network without utilizing household smart meter data. Finally, the thesis will conclude and summarize the overall system and highlight the contributions and novelties of this project

Model based forecasting for demand response strategies

The incremental deployment of decentralized renewable energy sources in the distribution grid is triggering a paradigm change for the power sector. This shift from a centralized structure with big power plants to a decentralized scenario of distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind, calls for a more active management of the distribution grid. Conventional distribution grids were passive systems, in which the power was flowing unidirectionally from upstream to downstream. Nowadays, and increasingly in the future, the penetration of distributed generation (DG), with its stochastic nature and lack of controllability, represents a major challenge for the stability of the network, especially at the distribution level. In particular, the power flow reversals produced by DG cause voltage excursions, which must be compensated. This poses an obstacle to the energy transition towards a more sustainable energy mix, which can however be mitigated by using a more active approach towards the control of the distribution networks. Demand side management (DSM) offers a possible solution to the problem, allowing to actively control the balance between generation, consumption and storage, close to the point of generation. An active energy management implies not only the capability to react promptly in case of disturbances, but also to ability to anticipate future events and take control actions accordingly. This is usually achieved through model predictive control (MPC), which requires a prediction of the future disturbances acting on the system. This thesis treat challenges of distributed DSM, with a particular focus on the case of a high penetration of PV power plants. The first subject of the thesis is the evaluation of the performance of models for forecasting and control with low computational requirements, of distributed electrical batteries. The proposed methods are compared by means of closed loop deterministic and stochastic MPC performance. The second subject of the thesis is the development of model based forecasting for PV power plants, and methods to estimate these models without the use of dedicated sensors. The third subject of the thesis concerns strategies for increasing forecasting accuracy when dealing with multiple signals linked by hierarchical relations. Hierarchical forecasting methods are introduced and a distributed algorithm for reconciling base forecasters is presented. At the same time, a new methodology for generating aggregate consistent probabilistic forecasts is proposed. This method can be applied to distributed stochastic DSM, in the presence of high penetration of rooftop installed PV systems. In this case, the forecasts' errors become mutually dependent, raising difficulties in the control problem due to the nontrivial summation of dependent random variables. The benefits of considering dependent forecasting errors over considering them as independent and uncorrelated, are investigated. The last part of the thesis concerns models for distributed energy markets, relying on hierarchical aggregators. To be effective, DSM requires a considerable amount of flexible load and storage to be controllable. This generates the need to be able to pool and coordinate several units, in order to reach a critical mass. In a real case scenario, flexible units will have different owners, who will have different and possibly conflicting interests. In order to recruit as much flexibility as possible, it is therefore importan