Inferning 2012

We consider the problem of inference in a graphical model with binary variables. While in theory it is arguably preferable to compute marginal probabilities, in practice researchers often use MAP inference due to the availability of efficient discrete optimization algorithms. We bridge the gap between the two approaches by introducing the Discrete Marginals technique in which approximate marginals are obtained by minimizing an objective function with unary and pairwise terms over a discretized domain. This allows the use of techniques originally developed for MAP-MRF inference and learning. We explore two ways to set up the objective function - by discretizing the Bethe free energy and by learning it from training data. Experimental results show that for certain types of graphs a learned function can outperform the Bethe approximation. We also establish a link between the Bethe free energy and submodular functions

IST Austria Technical Report

We consider the problem of inference in agraphical model with binary variables. While in theory it is arguably preferable to compute marginal probabilities, in practice researchers often use MAP inference due to the availability of efficient discrete optimization algorithms. We bridge the gap between the two approaches by introducing the Discrete Marginals technique in which approximate marginals are obtained by minimizing an objective function with unary and pair-wise terms over a discretized domain. This allows the use of techniques originally devel-oped for MAP-MRF inference and learning. We explore two ways to set up the objective function - by discretizing the Bethe free energy and by learning it from training data. Experimental results show that for certain types of graphs a learned function can out-perform the Bethe approximation. We also establish a link between the Bethe free energy and submodular functions

Methods for Inference in Graphical Models

Graphical models provide a flexible, powerful and compact way to model relationships between random variables, and have been applied with great success in many domains. Combining prior beliefs with observed evidence to form a prediction is called inference. Problems of great interest include finding a configuration with highest probability (MAP inference) or solving for the distribution over a subset of variables (marginal inference). Further, these methods are often critical subroutines for learning the relationships. However, inference is computationally intractable in general. Hence, much effort has focused on two themes: finding subdomains where exact inference is solvable efficiently, or identifying approximate methods that work well. We explore both these themes, restricting attention to undirected graphical models with discrete variables. First we address exact MAP inference by advancing the recent method of reducing the problem to finding a maximum weight stable set (MWSS) on a derived graph, which, if perfect, admits polynomial time inference. We derive new results for this approach, including a general decomposition theorem for models of any order and number of labels, extensions of results for binary pairwise models with submodular cost functions to higher order, and a characterization of which binary pairwise models can be efficiently solved with this method. This clarifies the power of the approach on this class of models, improves our toolbox and provides insight into the range of tractable models. Next we consider methods of approximate inference, with particular emphasis on the Bethe approximation, which is in widespread use and has proved remarkably effective, yet is still far from being completely understood. We derive new formulations and properties of the derivatives of the Bethe free energy, then use these to establish an algorithm to compute log of the optimum Bethe partition function to arbitrary epsilon-accuracy. Further, if the model is attractive, we demonstrate a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), which is an important theoretical result, and demonstrate its practical applications. Next we explore ways to tease apart the two aspects of the Bethe approximation, i.e. the polytope relaxation and the entropy approximation. We derive analytic results, show how optimization may be explored over various polytopes in practice, even for large models, and remark on the observed performance compared to the true distribution and the tree-reweighted (TRW) approximation. This reveals important novel observations and helps guide inference in practice. Finally, we present results related to clamping a selection of variables in a model. We derive novel lower bounds on an array of approximate partition functions based only on the model's topology. Further, we show that in an attractive binary pairwise model, clamping any variable and summing over the approximate sub-partition functions can only increase (hence improve) the Bethe approximation, then use this to provide a new, short proof that the Bethe partition function lower bounds the true value for this class of models. The bulk of this work focuses on the class of binary, pairwise models, but several results apply more generally

Structure in Machine Learning: Graphical Models and Monte Carlo Methods

This thesis is concerned with two main areas: approximate inference in discrete graphical models, and random embeddings for dimensionality reduction and approximate inference in kernel methods. Approximate inference is a fundamental problem in machine learning and statistics, with strong connections to other domains such as theoretical computer science. At the same time, there has often been a gap between the success of many algorithms in this area in practice, and what can be explained by theory; thus, an important research effort is to bridge this gap. Random embeddings for dimensionality reduction and approximate inference have led to great improvements in scalability of a wide variety of methods in machine learning. In recent years, there has been much work on how the stochasticity introduced by these approaches can be better controlled, and what further computational improvements can be made. In the first part of this thesis, we study approximate inference algorithms for discrete graphical models. Firstly, we consider linear programming methods for approximate MAP inference, and develop our understanding of conditions for exactness of these approximations. Such guarantees of exactness are typically based on either structural restrictions on the underlying graph corresponding to the model (such as low treewidth), or restrictions on the types of potential functions that may be present in the model (such as log-supermodularity). We contribute two new classes of exactness guarantees: the first of these takes the form of particular hybrid restrictions on a combination of graph structure and potential types, whilst the second is given by excluding particular substructures from the underlying graph, via graph minor theory. We also study a particular family of transformation methods of graphical models, uprooting and rerooting, and their effect on approximate MAP and marginal inference methods. We prove new theoretical results on the behaviour of particular approximate inference methods under these transformations, in particular showing that the triplet relaxation of the marginal polytope is unique in being universally rooted. We also introduce a heuristic which quickly picks a rerooting, and demonstrate benefits empirically on models over several graph topologies. In the second part of this thesis, we study Monte Carlo methods for both linear dimensionality reduction and approximate inference in kernel machines. We prove the statistical benefit of coupling Monte Carlo samples to be almost-surely orthogonal in a variety of contexts, and study fast approximate methods of inducing this coupling. A surprising result is that these approximate methods can simultaneously offer improved statistical benefits, time complexity, and space complexity over i.i.d. Monte Carlo samples. We evaluate our methods on a variety of datasets, directly studying their effects on approximate kernel evaluation, as well as on downstream tasks such as Gaussian process regression.EPSR

Uniqueness of Belief Propagation on Signed Graphs

While loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) has been utilized in a wide variety of applications with empirical success, it comes with few theoretical guarantees. Especially, if the interactions of random variables in a graphical model are strong, the behaviors of the algorithm can be difficult to analyze due to underlying phase transitions. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to the uniqueness problem of the LBP fixed point; our new “necessary and sufficient ” condition is stated in terms of graphs and signs, where the sign denotes the types (attractive/repulsive) of the interaction (i.e., compatibility function) on the edge. In all previous works, uniqueness is guaranteed only in the situations where the strength of the interactions are “sufficiently ” small in certain senses. In contrast, our condition covers arbitrary strong interactions on the specified class of signed graphs. The result of this paper is based on the recent theoretical advance in the LBP algorithm; the connection with the graph zeta function.