An Online Learning and Optimization Approach for Competitor-Aware Management of Shared Mobility Systems

An important trend in mobility is the consumption of mobility as-a-service heralding in the age of freefloating vehicle sharing (FFVS) systems. In many markets such fleets compete. We investigate how realtime competitor information can create value for operators in this context. We focus on the vehicle supply decision which is a large operational concern. We show empirically that local market shares directly depend on the share of available vehicles in a location, which underlines the value potential of competitor awareness. We leverage this insight by proposing a novel decision support system for optimal management of FFVS systems under competition. We proceed in two phases, (1) a predictive phase and (2) a prescriptive phase. In phase (1), we compile a spatio-temporal dataset based on Car2Go and DriveNow transactions in Berlin, which we supplement with temporal, geographical and weather data. We partition the city into hexagonal tiles and observe vehicle supply per tile at the start of each period. We train machine learning models to predict vehicle inflows and vehicle outflows during the next period to derive total supply and demand. We find that inflows and outflows can be predicted with high accuracy using similar models. We test different temporal and spatial resolutions and find that spatial resolution incurs larger performance penalties. In phase (2), we formulate a myopic mixed integer non-linear programming model with a margin-maximizing objective function. The model trades off additional market share gains against the cost of re-locating vehicles, which enables operators to assign vehicles optimally across the service network. Our numerical studies on the case of Car2Go and DriveNow demonstrate that this competitor-aware model is capable of profitably improving market share by up to 1.4% or 3.4% for human-based and autonomous relocation respectively in a prefect foresight scenario and by up to 0.8% and 1.8% respectively when using predicted values

Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement

Harnessing the power of the general public for crowdsourced business intelligence: a survey

International audienceCrowdsourced business intelligence (CrowdBI), which leverages the crowdsourced user-generated data to extract useful knowledge about business and create marketing intelligence to excel in the business environment, has become a surging research topic in recent years. Compared with the traditional business intelligence that is based on the firm-owned data and survey data, CrowdBI faces numerous unique issues, such as customer behavior analysis, brand tracking, and product improvement, demand forecasting and trend analysis, competitive intelligence, business popularity analysis and site recommendation, and urban commercial analysis. This paper first characterizes the concept model and unique features and presents a generic framework for CrowdBI. It also investigates novel application areas as well as the key challenges and techniques of CrowdBI. Furthermore, we make discussions about the future research directions of CrowdBI