Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons

Forecasting Energy Consumption using Sequence to Sequence Attention models

To combat negative environmental conditions, reduce operating costs, and identify energy savings opportunities, it is essential to efficiently manage energy consumption. Internet of Things (IoT) devices, including widely-used smart meters, have created possibilities for sensor based energy forecasting. Machine learning algorithms commonly used for energy forecasting, such as FeedForward Neural Networks, are not well-suited for interpreting the time dimensionality of a signal. Consequently, this thesis applies Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with attention for electrical load forecasting. The S2S and S2S attention architectures commonly used for neural machine translation are adapted for energy forecasting. An RNN enables capturing time dependencies present in the load data, while the S2S RNN model strengthens consecutive sequence prediction by combining two RNNs: encoder and decoder. Adding the attention mechanism to these S2S RNNs alleviates the burden of connecting the encoder and decoder. Presented experiments compare a regular S2S model and four S2S attention models with two baseline models, the conventional Non-S2S RNN and a Deep Neural Network (DNN). Furthermore, each RNN model was evaluated with three different RNN-cells: Vanilla RNN, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cell. All models were trained and tested on one building-level electrical load dataset, with five-minute incremental data. Results showed that the S2S Bahdanau et al. attention model was the dominant model as it outperformed all other models for nearly all forecasting lengths

Energy-Efficient and Fresh Data Collection in IoT Networks by Machine Learning

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) is rapidly changing our lives in almost every field, such as smart agriculture, environmental monitoring, intelligent manufacturing system, etc. How to improve the efficiency of data collection in IoT networks has attracted increasing attention. Clustering-based algorithms are the most common methods used to improve the efficiency of data collection. They group devices into distinct clusters, where each device belongs to one cluster only. All member devices sense their surrounding environment and transmit the results to the cluster heads (CHs). The CHs then send the received data to a control center via single-hop or multi-hops transmission. Using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to collect data in IoT networks is another effective method for improving the efficiency of data collection. This is because UAVs can be flexibly deployed to communicate with ground devices via reliable air-to-ground communication links. Given that energy-efficient data collection and freshness of the collected data are two important factors in IoT networks, this thesis is concerned with designing algorithms to improve the energy efficiency of data collection and guarantee the freshness of the collected data. Our first contribution is an improved soft-k-means (IS-k-means) clustering algorithm that balances the energy consumption of nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The techniques of “clustering by fast search and find of density peaks” (CFSFDP) and kernel density estimation (KDE) are used to improve the selection of the initial cluster centers of the soft k-means clustering algorithm. Then, we utilize the flexibility of the soft-k-means and reassign member nodes by considering their membership probabilities at the boundary of clusters to balance the number of nodes per cluster. Furthermore, we use multi-CHs to balance the energy consumption within clusters. Extensive simulation results show that, on average, the proposed algorithm can postpone the first node death, the half of nodes death, and the last node death when compared to various clustering algorithms from the literature. The second contribution tackles the problem of minimizing the total energy consumption of the UAV-IoT network. Specifically, we formulate and solve the optimization problem that jointly finds the UAV’s trajectory and selects CHs in the IoT network. The formulated problem is a constrained combinatorial optimization and we develop a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with a sequential model strategy to solve it. The proposed method can effectively learn the policy represented by a sequence-to-sequence neural network for designing the UAV’s trajectory in an unsupervised manner. Extensive simulation results show that the proposed DRL method can find the UAV’s trajectory with much less energy consumption when compared to other baseline algorithms and achieves close-to-optimal performance. In addition, simulation results show that the model trained by our proposed DRL algorithm has an excellent generalization ability, i.e., it can be used for larger-size problems without the need to retrain the model. The third contribution is also concerned with minimizing the total energy consumption of the UAV-aided IoT networks. A novel DRL technique, namely the pointer network-A* (Ptr-A*), is proposed, which can efficiently learn the UAV trajectory policy for minimizing the energy consumption. The UAV’s start point and the ground network with a set of pre-determined clusters are fed to the Ptr-A*, and the Ptr-A* outputs a group of CHs and the visiting order of CHs, i.e., the UAV’s trajectory. The parameters of the Ptr-A* are trained on problem instances having small-scale clusters by using the actor-critic algorithm in an unsupervised manner. Simulation results show that the models trained based on 20- clusters and 40-clusters have a good generalization ability to solve the UAV’s trajectory planning problem with different numbers of clusters, without the need to retrain the models. Furthermore, the results show that our proposed DRL algorithm outperforms two baseline techniques. In the last contribution, the new concept, age-of-information (AoI), is used to quantify the freshness of collected data in IoT networks. An optimization problem is formulated to minimize the total AoI of the collected data by the UAV from the ground IoT network. Since the total AoI of the IoT network depends on the flight time of the UAV and the data collection time at hovering points, we jointly optimize the selection of the hovering points and the visiting order to these points. We exploit the state-of-the-art transformer and the weighted A* to design a machine learning algorithm to solve the formulated problem. The whole UAV-IoT system, including all ground clusters and potential hovering points of the UAV, is fed to the encoder network of the proposed algorithm, and the algorithm’s decoder network outputs the visiting order to ground clusters. Then, the weighted A* is used to find the hovering point for each cluster in the ground IoT network. Simulation results show that the model trained by the proposed algorithm has a good generalization ability to generate solutions for IoT networks with different numbers of ground clusters, without the need to retrain the model. Furthermore, results show that our proposed algorithm can find better UAV trajectories with the minimum total AoI when compared to other algorithms