2,861 research outputs found
Adaptive control of large space structures using recursive lattice filters
The use of recursive lattice filters for identification and adaptive control of large space structures is studied. Lattice filters were used to identify the structural dynamics model of the flexible structures. This identification model is then used for adaptive control. Before the identified model and control laws are integrated, the identified model is passed through a series of validation procedures and only when the model passes these validation procedures is control engaged. This type of validation scheme prevents instability when the overall loop is closed. Another important area of research, namely that of robust controller synthesis, was investigated using frequency domain multivariable controller synthesis methods. The method uses the Linear Quadratic Guassian/Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR) approach to ensure stability against unmodeled higher frequency modes and achieves the desired performance
Real-time flutter analysis
The important algorithm issues necessary to achieve a real time flutter monitoring system; namely, the guidelines for choosing appropriate model forms, reduction of the parameter convergence transient, handling multiple modes, the effect of over parameterization, and estimate accuracy predictions, both online and for experiment design are addressed. An approach for efficiently computing continuous-time flutter parameter Cramer-Rao estimate error bounds were developed. This enables a convincing comparison of theoretical and simulation results, as well as offline studies in preparation for a flight test. Theoretical predictions, simulation and flight test results from the NASA Drones for Aerodynamic and Structural Test (DAST) Program are compared
Recursive Estimation in Econometrics
An account is given of recursive regression and of Kalman filtering which gathers the important results and the ideas that lie behind them within a small compass. It emphasises the areas in which econometricians have made contributions, which include the methods for handling the initial-value problem associated with nonstationary processes and the algorithms of fixed-interval smoothing.Recursive regression, Kalman filtering, Fixed-interval smoothing, The initial-value problem
Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage
Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its
generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a
certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have
recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that
the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time
estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market
inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building
on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread
processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First,
we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick
adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an
on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being
computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building
aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a
monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides
informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental
results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are
discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two
exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte
Filtering Random Graph Processes Over Random Time-Varying Graphs
Graph filters play a key role in processing the graph spectra of signals
supported on the vertices of a graph. However, despite their widespread use,
graph filters have been analyzed only in the deterministic setting, ignoring
the impact of stochastic- ity in both the graph topology as well as the signal
itself. To bridge this gap, we examine the statistical behavior of the two key
filter types, finite impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive moving average
(ARMA) graph filters, when operating on random time- varying graph signals (or
random graph processes) over random time-varying graphs. Our analysis shows
that (i) in expectation, the filters behave as the same deterministic filters
operating on a deterministic graph, being the expected graph, having as input
signal a deterministic signal, being the expected signal, and (ii) there are
meaningful upper bounds for the variance of the filter output. We conclude the
paper by proposing two novel ways of exploiting randomness to improve (joint
graph-time) noise cancellation, as well as to reduce the computational
complexity of graph filtering. As demonstrated by numerical results, these
methods outperform the disjoint average and denoise algorithm, and yield a (up
to) four times complexity redution, with very little difference from the
optimal solution
Combining long memory and level shifts in modeling and forecasting the volatility of asset returns
We propose a parametric state space model of asset return volatility with an accompanying estimation and forecasting framework that allows for ARFIMA dynamics, random level shifts and measurement errors. The Kalman filter is used to construct the state-augmented likelihood function and subsequently to generate forecasts, which are mean- and path-corrected. We apply our model to eight daily volatility series constructed from both high-frequency and daily returns. Full sample parameter estimates reveal that random level shifts are present in all series. Genuine long memory is present in high-frequency measures of volatility whereas there is little remaining dynamics in the volatility measures constructed using daily returns. From extensive forecast evaluations, we find that our ARFIMA model with random level shifts consistently belongs to the 10% Model Confidence Set across a variety of forecast horizons, asset classes, and volatility measures. The gains in forecast accuracy can be very pronounced, especially at longer horizons
Convergence Rate of Stochastic Gradient Search in the Case of Multiple and Non-Isolated Minima
The convergence rate of stochastic gradient search is analyzed in this paper.
Using arguments based on differential geometry and Lojasiewicz inequalities,
tight bounds on the convergence rate of general stochastic gradient algorithms
are derived. As opposed to the existing results, the results presented in this
paper allow the objective function to have multiple, non-isolated minima,
impose no restriction on the values of the Hessian (of the objective function)
and do not require the algorithm estimates to have a single limit point.
Applying these new results, the convergence rate of recursive prediction error
identification algorithms is studied. The convergence rate of supervised and
temporal-difference learning algorithms is also analyzed using the results
derived in the paper
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