Hedging predictions in machine learning

Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to design efficient prediction algorithms for data sets with huge numbers of parameters. This paper describes a new technique for "hedging" the predictions output by many such algorithms, including support vector machines, kernel ridge regression, kernel nearest neighbours, and by many other state-of-the-art methods. The hedged predictions for the labels of new objects include quantitative measures of their own accuracy and reliability. These measures are provably valid under the assumption of randomness, traditional in machine learning: the objects and their labels are assumed to be generated independently from the same probability distribution. In particular, it becomes possible to control (up to statistical fluctuations) the number of erroneous predictions by selecting a suitable confidence level. Validity being achieved automatically, the remaining goal of hedged prediction is efficiency: taking full account of the new objects' features and other available information to produce as accurate predictions as possible. This can be done successfully using the powerful machinery of modern machine learning.Comment: 24 pages; 9 figures; 2 tables; a version of this paper (with discussion and rejoinder) is to appear in "The Computer Journal

Distribution matching for transduction

Many transductive inference algorithms assume that distributions over training and test estimates should be related, e.g. by providing a large margin of separation on both sets. We use this idea to design a transduction algorithm which can be used without modification for classification, regression, and structured estimation. At its heart we exploit the fact that for a good learner the distributions over the outputs on training and test sets should match. This is a classical two-sample problem which can be solved efficiently in its most general form by using distance measures in Hilbert Space. It turns out that a number of existing heuristics can be viewed as special cases of our approach.

Gaussian process domain experts for model adaptation in facial behavior analysis

We present a novel approach for supervised domain adaptation that is based upon the probabilistic framework of Gaussian processes (GPs). Specifically, we introduce domain-specific GPs as local experts for facial expression classification from face images. The adaptation of the classifier is facilitated in probabilistic fashion by conditioning the target expert on multiple source experts. Furthermore, in contrast to existing adaptation approaches, we also learn a target expert from available target data solely. Then, a single and confident classifier is obtained by combining the predictions from multiple experts based on their confidence. Learning of the model is efficient and requires no retraining/reweighting of the source classifiers. We evaluate the proposed approach on two publicly available datasets for multi-class (MultiPIE) and multi-label (DISFA) facial expression classification. To this end, we perform adaptation of two contextual factors: where (view) and who (subject). We show in our experiments that the proposed approach consistently outperforms both source and target classifiers, while using as few as 30 target examples. It also outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches for supervised domain adaptation