Fair Resource Allocation in Macroscopic Evacuation Planning Using Mathematical Programming: Modeling and Optimization

Evacuation is essential in the case of natural and manmade disasters such as hurricanes, nuclear disasters, fire accidents, and terrorism epidemics. Random evacuation plans can increase risks and incur more losses. Hence, numerous simulation and mathematical programming models have been developed over the past few decades to help transportation planners make decisions to reduce costs and protect lives. However, the dynamic transportation process is inherently complex. Thus, modeling this process can be challenging and computationally demanding. The objective of this dissertation is to build a balanced model that reflects the realism of the dynamic transportation process and still be computationally tractable to be implemented in reality by the decision-makers. On the other hand, the users of the transportation network require reasonable travel time within the network to reach their destinations. This dissertation introduces a novel framework in the fields of fairness in network optimization and evacuation to provide better insight into the evacuation process and assist with decision making. The user of the transportation network is a critical element in this research. Thus, fairness and efficiency are the two primary objectives addressed in the work by considering the limited capacity of roads of the transportation network. Specifically, an approximation approach to the max-min fairness (MMF) problem is presented that provides lower computational time and high-quality output compared to the original algorithm. In addition, a new algorithm is developed to find the MMF resource allocation output in nonconvex structure problems. MMF is the fairness policy used in this research since it considers fairness and efficiency and gives priority to fairness. In addition, a new dynamic evacuation modeling approach is introduced that is capable of reporting more information about the evacuees compared to the conventional evacuation models such as their travel time, evacuation time, and departure time. Thus, the contribution of this dissertation is in the two areas of fairness and evacuation. The first part of the contribution of this dissertation is in the field of fairness. The objective in MMF is to allocate resources fairly among multiple demands given limited resources while utilizing the resources for higher efficiency. Fairness and efficiency are contradicting objectives, so they are translated into a bi-objective mathematical programming model and solved using the ϵ-constraint method, introduced by Vira and Haimes (1983). Although the solution is an approximation to the MMF, the model produces quality solutions, when ϵ is properly selected, in less computational time compared to the progressive-filling algorithm (PFA). In addition, a new algorithm is developed in this research called the θ progressive-filling algorithm that finds the MMF in resource allocation for general problems and works on problems with the nonconvex structure problems. The second part of the contribution is in evacuation modeling. The common dynamic evacuation models lack a piece of essential information for achieving fairness, which is the time each evacuee or group of evacuees spend in the network. Most evacuation models compute the total time for all evacuees to move from the endangered zone to the safe destination. Lack of information about the users of the transportation network is the motivation to develop a new optimization model that reports more information about the users of the network. The model finds the travel time, evacuation time, departure time, and the route selected for each group of evacuees. Given that the travel time function is a non-linear convex function of the traffic volume, the function is linearized through a piecewise linear approximation. The developed model is a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model with high complexity. Hence, the model is not capable of solving large scale problems. The complexity of the model was reduced by introducing a linear programming (LP) version of the full model. The complexity is significantly reduced while maintaining the exact output. In addition, the new θ-progressive-filling algorithm was implemented on the evacuation model to find a fair and efficient evacuation plan. The algorithm is also used to identify the optimal routes in the transportation network. Moreover, the robustness of the evacuation model was tested against demand uncertainty to observe the model behavior when the demand is uncertain. Finally, the robustness of the model is tested when the traffic flow is uncontrolled. In this case, the model's only decision is to distribute the evacuees on routes and has no control over the departure time

Rule Derivation for Agent-Based Models of Complex Systems: Nuclear Waste Management and Road Networks Case Studies

This thesis explores the relation between equation-based models (EBMs) and agent-based models (ABMs), in particular, the derivation of agent rules from equations such that agent collective behavior produces results that match or are close to those from EBMs. This allows studying phenomena using both approaches and obtaining an understanding of the aggregate behavior as well as the individual mechanisms that produce them. The use of ABMs allows the inclusion of more realistic features that would not be possible (or would be difficult to include) using EBMs. The first part of the thesis studies the derivation of molecule displacement probabilities from the diffusion equation using cellular automata. The derivation is extended to include reaction and advection terms. This procedure is later applied to estimate lifetimes of nuclear waste containers for various scenarios of interest and the inclusion of uncertainty. The second part is concerned with the derivation of a Bayesian state algorithm that consolidates collective real-time information about the state of a given system and outputs a probability density function of state domain, from which the most probable state can be computed at any given time. This estimation is provided to agents so that they can choose the best option for them. The algorithm includes a diffusion or diffusion-like term to account for the deterioration of information as time goes on. This algorithm is applied to a couple of road networks where drivers, prior to selecting a route, have access to current information about the traffic and are able to decide which path to follow. Both problems are complex due to heterogeneous components, nonlinearities, and stochastic behavior; which make them difficult to describe using classical equation models such as the diffusion equation or optimization models. The use of ABMs allowed for the inclusion of such complex features in the study of their respective systems