Incorporating Helpful Behavior into Collaborative Planning

This paper considers the design of agent strategies for deciding whether to help other members of a group with whom an agent is engaged in a collaborative activity. Three characteristics of collaborative planning must be addressed by these decision-making strategies: agents may have only partial information about their partners' plans for sub-tasks of the collaborative activity; the effectiveness of helping may not be known a priori; and, helping actions have some associated cost. The paper proposes a novel probabilistic representation of other agents' beliefs about the recipes selected for their own or for the group activity, given partial information. This representation is compact, and thus makes reasoning about helpful behavior tractable. The paper presents a decision-theoretic mechanism that uses this representation to make decisions about two kinds of helpful actions: communicating information relevant to a partner's plans for some sub-action, and adding domain actions that are helpful to other agent(s) into the collaborative plan. This mechanism includes a set of rules for reasoning about the utility of helpful actions and the cost incurred by doing them. It was tested using a multi-agent test-bed with configurations that varied agents' uncertainty about the world, their uncertainty about each others' capabilities or resources, and the cost of helpful behavior. In all cases, agents using the decision-theoretic mechanism to decide whether to help outperformed agents using purely axiomatic rules.Engineering and Applied Science

Behavioral game theory: Plausible formal models that predict accurately

Many weaknesses of game theory are cured by new models that embody simple cognitive principles, while maintaining the formalism and generality that makes game theory useful. Social preference models can generate team reasoning by combining reciprocation and correlated equilibrium. Models of limited iterated thinking explain data better than equilibrium models do; and they self-repair problems of implausibility and multiplicity of equilibria

Robust Control in Global Warming Management: An Analytical Dynamic Integrated Assessment

Imperfect measurement of uncertainty (deeper uncertainty) in climate sensitivity is introduced in a two-sectoral integrated assessment model (IAM) with endogenous growth, based on an extension of DICE. The household expresses ambiguity aversion and can use robust control via a `shadow ambiguity premium' on social carbon cost to identify robust climate policy feedback rules that work well over a range such as the IPCC climate sensitivity range (IPCC, 2007a). Ambiguity aversion, in combination with linear damage, increases carbon cost in a similar way as a low pure rate of time preference. However, ambiguity aversion in combination with non-linear damage would also make policy more responsive to changes in climate data observations. Perfect ambiguity aversion results in an infinite expected shadow carbon cost and a zero carbon consumption path. Dynamic programming identifies an analytically tractable solution to the IAM.climate policy, carbon cost, robust control, Knightian uncertainty, ambiguity aversion, integrated asssessment

An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

Propositional semantics for default logic

We present new semantics for propositional default logic based on the notion of meta-interpretations - truth functions that assign truth values to clauses rather than letters. This leads to a propositional characterization of default theories: for each such finite theory, we show a classical propositional theory such that there is a one-to-one correspondence between models for the latter and extensions of the former. This means that computing an extension and answering questions about coherence, set-membership, and set-entailment are reducible to propositional satisfiability. The general transformation is exponential but tractable for a subset which we call 2-DT which is a superset of network default theories and disjunction-free default theories. This leads to the observation that coherence and membership for the class 2-DT is NP-complete and entailment is co-NP-complete.Since propositional satisfiability can be regarded as a constraint satisfaction problem (CSP), this work also paves the way for applying CSP techniques to default reasoning. In particular, we use the taxonomy of tractable CSP to identify new tractable subsets for Reiter's default logic. Our procedures allow also for computing stable models of extended logic programs

Optimising ITS behaviour with Bayesian networks and decision theory

We propose and demonstrate a methodology for building tractable normative intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs). A normative ITS uses a Bayesian network for long-term student modelling and decision theory to select the next tutorial action. Because normative theories are a general framework for rational behaviour, they can be used to both define and apply learning theories in a rational, and therefore optimal, way. This contrasts to the more traditional approach of using an ad-hoc scheme to implement the learning theory. A key step of the methodology is the induction and the continual adaptation of the Bayesian network student model from student performance data, a step that is distinct from other recent Bayesian net approaches in which the network structure and probabilities are either chosen beforehand by an expert, or by efficiency considerations. The methodology is demonstrated by a description and evaluation of CAPIT, a normative constraint-based tutor for English capitalisation and punctuation. Our evaluation results show that a class using the full normative version of CAPIT learned the domain rules at a faster rate than the class that used a non-normative version of the same system