Making Consensus Tractable

We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some indication as to which action is optimal. To come to a common decision, the participants perform repeated rounds of voting. In each round, each agent casts a vote in favor of one of the two courses of action, reflecting his or her current belief, and observes the votes of the rest. We provide an efficient algorithm for the calculation the agents have to perform, and show that consensus is always reached and that the probability of reaching a wrong decision decays exponentially with the number of agents.Comment: 18 pages. To appear in Transactions on Economics and Computatio

Complexity of Bayesian Belief Exchange over a Network

Many important real-world decision making prob- lems involve group interactions among individuals with purely informational externalities, such situations arise for example in jury deliberations, expert committees, medical diagnosis, etc. In this paper, we will use the framework of iterated eliminations to model the decision problem as well as the thinking process of a Bayesian agent in a group decision/discussion scenario. We model the purely informational interactions of rational agents in a group, where they receive private information and act based upon that information while also observing other people’s beliefs. As the Bayesian agent attempts to infer the true state of the world from her sequence of observations which include her neighbors’ beliefs as well as her own private signal, she recursively refines her belief about the signals that other players could have observed and beliefs that they would have hold given the assumption that other players are also rational. We further analyze the computational complexity of the Bayesian belief formation in groups and show that it is NP -hard. We also investigate the factors underlying this computational complexity and show how belief calculations simplify in special network structures or cases with strong inherent symmetries. We finally give insights about the statistical efficiency (optimality) of the beliefs and its relations to computational efficiency.United States. Army Research Office (grant MURI W911NF-12- 1-0509)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Computing and Communication Foundation (grant CCF 1665252)United States. Department of Defense (ONR grant N00014-17-1-2598)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant DMS-1737944

Asynchronous Majority Dynamics in Preferential Attachment Trees

We study information aggregation in networks where agents make binary decisions (labeled incorrect or correct). Agents initially form independent private beliefs about the better decision, which is correct with probability $1/2+\delta$. The dynamics we consider are asynchronous (each round, a single agent updates their announced decision) and non-Bayesian (agents simply copy the majority announcements among their neighbors, tie-breaking in favor of their private signal). Our main result proves that when the network is a tree formed according to the preferential attachment model \cite{BarabasiA99}, with high probability, the process stabilizes in a correct majority within $O(n \log n/ \log\log n)$ rounds. We extend our results to other tree structures, including balanced $M$-ary trees for any $M$.Comment: ICALP 202

Dynamics of Social Networks: Multi-agent Information Fusion, Anticipatory Decision Making and Polling

This paper surveys mathematical models, structural results and algorithms in controlled sensing with social learning in social networks. Part 1, namely Bayesian Social Learning with Controlled Sensing addresses the following questions: How does risk averse behavior in social learning affect quickest change detection? How can information fusion be priced? How is the convergence rate of state estimation affected by social learning? The aim is to develop and extend structural results in stochastic control and Bayesian estimation to answer these questions. Such structural results yield fundamental bounds on the optimal performance, give insight into what parameters affect the optimal policies, and yield computationally efficient algorithms. Part 2, namely, Multi-agent Information Fusion with Behavioral Economics Constraints generalizes Part 1. The agents exhibit sophisticated decision making in a behavioral economics sense; namely the agents make anticipatory decisions (thus the decision strategies are time inconsistent and interpreted as subgame Bayesian Nash equilibria). Part 3, namely {\em Interactive Sensing in Large Networks}, addresses the following questions: How to track the degree distribution of an infinite random graph with dynamics (via a stochastic approximation on a Hilbert space)? How can the infected degree distribution of a Markov modulated power law network and its mean field dynamics be tracked via Bayesian filtering given incomplete information obtained by sampling the network? We also briefly discuss how the glass ceiling effect emerges in social networks. Part 4, namely \emph{Efficient Network Polling} deals with polling in large scale social networks. In such networks, only a fraction of nodes can be polled to determine their decisions. Which nodes should be polled to achieve a statistically accurate estimates

Asynchronous Majority Dynamics on Binomial Random Graphs

We study information aggregation in networks when agents interact to learn a binary state of the world. Initially each agent privately observes an independent signal which is "correct" with probability $\frac{1}{2}+\delta$ for some $\delta > 0$. At each round, a node is selected uniformly at random to update their public opinion to match the majority of their neighbours (breaking ties in favour of their initial private signal). Our main result shows that for sparse and connected binomial random graphs $\mathcal G(n,p)$ the process stabilizes in a "correct" consensus in $\mathcal O(n\log^2 n/\log\log n)$ steps with high probability. In fact, when $\log n/n \ll p = o(1)$ the process terminates at time $\hat T = (1+o(1))n\log n$, where $\hat T$ is the first time when all nodes have been selected at least once. However, in dense binomial random graphs with $p=\Omega(1)$, there is an information cascade where the process terminates in the "incorrect" consensus with probability bounded away from zero