THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION, INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND THE 6TH KONDRATIEFF CYCLE

This theoretical paper critically assesses existing long wave discourse which classifies the current set of innovation surges as part of a 5th Kondratieff cycle, with the 6th likely to be based on nanotechnologies or bio-medical technologies. Kondratieff long wave theory provides a strong cognitive tool to examine such innovation surges. This paper argues that the existing discourse is incorrect: the 5th Kondratieff cycle should be classed as the age of computing while the 6th should be classed as the age of the information superhighway. The 5th Kondratieff wave was about computing and basic communication technologies, while the 6th is about ubiquitous access to the Internet as an information superhighway and conduit for social and technological innovation

The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRICtechnologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologie

Kondratieff Waves, Technological Modes, and the Theory of Production Revolutions

In the present article Kondratieff waves theory is considered in comparison with the theory of production revolutions which analyzes the regularities of the major technological breakthroughs in history. Both theories analyze the processes of cyclic nature related to the innovative technological development of the World-System. The mutual comparison of both theories allows the author to make important clarifications in understanding of the long-wave dynamics as a whole, as well as to give relevant explanations of the peculiarities of the unfolding of each of the five waves and their phases, to make forecasts about the sixth wave and the development of technologies of the sixth technological mode. The special attention is paid to the analysis of aspects and limitations of the theory of technological modes, as it is used by many researchers to explain the causes of the long-wave dynamics

The Inflationary and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy in the Light of the Long Cycles' Theory

The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euros, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from 'the Japanese disease', and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, albeit to a lesser extent, has signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on our analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we suppose that the new crisis will begin in 2020-2021. We also suppose that in the next 5-10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The paper also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020 - the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations

Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook

In the period from the 1920s to 1930s the theory of economic cycles underwent dramatic changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed. The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to the interconnections between various economic cycles. As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important ones for the present-day economic dynamics. Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon, the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff waves is the subject of several articles in the second section. The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985). This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization

Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by breakthroughs in medical technologies which will manage to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some predictions concerning the development of these technologies

Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future

The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will not we find ourselves at some point again in an edifice spanning across the globe, but divided into national apartments, separated by walls of high tariffs and mutual suspicion? Of course, some setbacks are always possible, because the process of globalization cannot develop smoothly. It is a process which is itself emerging from contradictions and is shaped by a new contradiction. They often go much further than underlying systemic changes allow. They break forward, as the vanguard of a victorious army, and then often meet resistance of various social and political forces and may suddenly start to roll back just at the moment when everyone expects their further offensive. We believe that this is what is happening with globalization at present. The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues

Technological Dimension of Big History and the Cybernetic Revolution

The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of the human history. A new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution is introduced. We also describe the direction of technological transformations, discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. Our analysis of technological evolution mainly focuses on the second half of the 20th century. We present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution which we denote as 'Сybernetic', and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the 21st century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano-, bio-, robotic, IT and cognitive technologies). Today we are at the threshold of post-human revolution, the era of an intensive impact on the human body. The authors consider the directions of this revolution such as considerable life extension, organ replacement, BCIs, robotics, genome editing, etc. It is very important to understand the mechanisms of technological development and to measure the possible risks arising from them

Innovation Technology

Comprise definition of 1500 terms. Innovation from A to Z presents a glossary, including: Terms, older terms whose meanings have changed, acronyms, synonyms, famous names, selected abbreviations, and cross-references. A highly interdisciplinary approach incorporating strategy and entrepreneurship with technology and engineering sciences, economics, marketing, organizational behavior and theory. Ideal for engineers, managers, sales people and economists. Innovation Technology from A to Z Glossary of terms, including acronyms, synonyms, abbreviations, cross-references 1500 terms supplemented by figures and tables that clearly demonstrate the state-of-the-art in Innovation Technolog

Foresight Playback: Mapping the Future of Industrial Regions by Learning from Historical Cycles of Innovation

This paper explores how mapping historical cycles of innovation and finance can inform the future of innovation for industrial clusters. This method is discussed in combination with strategic frameworks for increased cluster survival — such as the GEMS model for cluster adaptation — and the Three Horizons foresight methodology that can complement the historical cycles method. Three stages of cluster development are described and charted for five regional clusters , detailing factors contributing to their rise and fall which can help firms and clusters understand their place along a life cycle. Beneficial agglomeration externalities are also detailed for the case studies. Kondratieff, Schumpeter, Elliot waves and the Fourth Turning generational cycles are brought together to show how cycles of innovation and decline can be mapped over long periods, adding to the insights that other foresight methodologies can bring to cluster planning