Towards Scientific Incident Response

A scientific incident analysis is one with a methodical, justifiable approach to the human decision-making process. Incident analysis is a good target for additional rigor because it is the most human-intensive part of incident response. Our goal is to provide the tools necessary for specifying precisely the reasoning process in incident analysis. Such tools are lacking, and are a necessary (though not sufficient) component of a more scientific analysis process. To reach this goal, we adapt tools from program verification that can capture and test abductive reasoning. As Charles Peirce coined the term in 1900, “Abduction is the process of forming an explanatory hypothesis. It is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea.” We reference canonical examples as paradigms of decision-making during analysis. With these examples in mind, we design a logic capable of expressing decision-making during incident analysis. The result is that we can express, in machine-readable and precise language, the abductive hypotheses than an analyst makes, and the results of evaluating them. This result is beneficial because it opens up the opportunity of genuinely comparing analyst processes without revealing sensitive system details, as well as opening an opportunity towards improved decision-support via limited automation

Inducing Strong Non-Linearities in a Phonon Trapping Quartz Bulk Acoustic Wave Resonator Coupled to a Superconducting Quantum Interference Device

A quartz Bulk Acoustic Wave resonator is designed to coherently trap phonons in a way that they are well confined and immune to suspension losses so they exhibit extremely high acoustic $Q$-factors at low temperature, with $Q\times f$ products of order $10^{18}$ Hz. In this work we couple such a resonator to a SQUID amplifier and investigate effects in the strong signal regime. Both parallel and series connection topologies of the system are investigated. The study reveals significant non-Duffing response that is associated with the nonlinear characteristics of Josephson junctions. The nonlinearity provides quasi-periodic structure of the spectrum in both incident power and frequency. The result gives an insight into the open loop behaviour of a future Cryogenic Quartz Oscillator in the strong signal regime

The causes and circumstances of drinking water incidents impact consumer behaviour:Comparison of a routine versus a natural disaster incident

When public health is endangered, the general public can only protect themselves if timely messages are received and understood. Previous research has shown that the cause of threats to public health can affect risk perception and behaviours. This study compares compliance to public health advice and consumer behaviour during two "Boil Water" notices issued in the UK due to a routine incident versus a natural disaster incident. A postal questionnaire was sent to 1000 randomly selected households issued a routine "Boil Water" notice. Findings were then compared to a previous study that explored drinking water behaviour during a "Boil Water" notice issued after serious floods. Consumers affected by the routine incident showed a significant preference for official water company information, whereas consumers affected by the natural disaster preferred local information sources. Confusion over which notice was in place was found for both incidents. Non-compliance was significantly higher for the natural disaster (48.3%) than the routine incident (35.4%). For the routine incident, compliance with advice on drinking as well as preparing/cooking food and brushing teeth was positively associated with receiving advice from the local radio, while the opposite was true for those receiving advice from the water company/leaflet through the post; we suggest this may largely be due to confusion over needing boiled tap water for brushing teeth. No associations were found for demographic factors. We conclude that information dissemination plans should be tailored to the circumstances under which the advice is issued. Water companies should seek to educate the general public about water notices and which actions are safe and unsafe during which notice, as well as construct and disseminate clearer advice on brushing teeth and preparing/cooking food

The DArk Matter Particle Explorer mission

The DArk Matter Particle Explorer (DAMPE), one of the four scientific space science missions within the framework of the Strategic Pioneer Program on Space Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is a general purpose high energy cosmic-ray and gamma-ray observatory, which was successfully launched on December 17th, 2015 from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The DAMPE scientific objectives include the study of galactic cosmic rays up to $\sim 10$ TeV and hundreds of TeV for electrons/gammas and nuclei respectively, and the search for dark matter signatures in their spectra. In this paper we illustrate the layout of the DAMPE instrument, and discuss the results of beam tests and calibrations performed on ground. Finally we present the expected performance in space and give an overview of the mission key scientific goals.Comment: 45 pages, including 29 figures and 6 tables. Published in Astropart. Phy

Dielectric Metamaterials with Toroidal Dipolar Response

Toroidal multipoles are the terms missing in the standard multipole expansion; they are usually overlooked due to their relatively weak coupling to the electromagnetic fields. Here we propose and theoretically study all-dielectric metamaterials of a special class that represent a simple electromagnetic system supporting toroidal dipolar excitations in the THz part of the spectrum. We show that resonant transmission and reflection of such metamaterials is dominated by toroidal dipole scattering, the neglect of which would result in a misunderstanding interpretation of the metamaterials macroscopic response. Due to the unique field configuration of the toroidal mode the proposed metamaterials could serve as a platform for sensing, or enhancement of light absorption and optical nonlinearities

Strategies for the treatment of Hepatitis C in an era of interferon-free therapies: what public health outcomes do we value most?

Objective: The expense of new therapies for HCV infection may force health systems to prioritise the treatment of certain patient groups over others. Our objective was to forecast the population impact of possible prioritisation strategies for the resource-rich setting of Scotland. Design: We created a dynamic Markov simulation model to reflect the HCV-infected population in Scotland. We determined trends in key outcomes (e.g. incident cases of chronic infection and severe liver morbidity (SLM)) until the year 2030, according to treatment strategies involving prioritising, either: (A) persons with moderate/advanced fibrosis or (B) persons who inject drugs (PWID). Results: Continuing to treat the same number of patients with the same characteristics will give rise to a fall in incident infection (from 600 cases in 2015 to 440 in 2030) and a fall in SLM (from 195 cases in 2015 to 145 in 2030). Doubling treatment-uptake and prioritising PWID will reduce incident infection to negligible levels (<50 cases per year) by 2025, while SLM will stabilise (at 70–75 cases per year) in 2028. Alternatively, doubling the number of patients treated, but, instead, prioritising persons with moderate/advanced fibrosis will reduce incident infection less favourably (only to 280 cases in 2030), but SLM will stabilise by 2023 (i.e. earlier than any competing strategy). Conclusions: Prioritising treatment uptake among PWID will substantially impact incident transmission, however, this approach foregoes the optimal impact on SLM. Conversely, targeting those with moderate/advanced fibrosis has the greatest impact on SLM but is suboptimal in terms of averting incident infection