A critical assessment of imbalanced class distribution problem: the case of predicting freshmen student attrition

Predicting student attrition is an intriguing yet challenging problem for any academic institution. Class-imbalanced data is a common in the field of student retention, mainly because a lot of students register but fewer students drop out. Classification techniques for imbalanced dataset can yield deceivingly high prediction accuracy where the overall predictive accuracy is usually driven by the majority class at the expense of having very poor performance on the crucial minority class. In this study, we compared different data balancing techniques to improve the predictive accuracy in minority class while maintaining satisfactory overall classification performance. Specifically, we tested three balancing techniques—oversampling, under-sampling and synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE)—along with four popular classification methods—logistic regression, decision trees, neuron networks and support vector machines. We used a large and feature rich institutional student data (between the years 2005 and 2011) to assess the efficacy of both balancing techniques as well as prediction methods. The results indicated that the support vector machine combined with SMOTE data-balancing technique achieved the best classification performance with a 90.24% overall accuracy on the 10-fold holdout sample. All three data-balancing techniques improved the prediction accuracy for the minority class. Applying sensitivity analyses on developed models, we also identified the most important variables for accurate prediction of student attrition. Application of these models has the potential to accurately predict at-risk students and help reduce student dropout rates

Stability and sensitivity of Learning Analytics based prediction models

Learning analytics seek to enhance the learning processes through systematic measurements of learning related data and to provide informative feedback to learners and educators. Track data from Learning Management Systems (LMS) constitute a main data source for learning analytics. This empirical contribution provides an application of Buckingham Shum and Deakin Crick’s theoretical framework of dispositional learning analytics: an infrastructure that combines learning dispositions data with data extracted from computer-assisted, formative assessments and LMSs. In two cohorts of a large introductory quantitative methods module, 2049 students were enrolled in a module based on principles of blended learning, combining face-to-face Problem-Based Learning sessions with e-tutorials. We investigated the predictive power of learning dispositions, outcomes of continuous formative assessments and other system generated data in modelling student performance and their potential to generate informative feedback. Using a dynamic, longitudinal perspective, computer-assisted formative assessments seem to be the best predictor for detecting underperforming students and academic performance, while basic LMS data did not substantially predict learning. If timely feedback is crucial, both use-intensity related track data from e-tutorial systems, and learning dispositions, are valuable sources for feedback generation

The Role of Gender in Social Network Organization

The digital traces we leave behind when engaging with the modern world offer an interesting lens through which we study behavioral patterns as expression of gender. Although gender differentiation has been observed in a number of settings, the majority of studies focus on a single data stream in isolation. Here we use a dataset of high resolution data collected using mobile phones, as well as detailed questionnaires, to study gender differences in a large cohort. We consider mobility behavior and individual personality traits among a group of more than $800$ university students. We also investigate interactions among them expressed via person-to-person contacts, interactions on online social networks, and telecommunication. Thus, we are able to study the differences between male and female behavior captured through a multitude of channels for a single cohort. We find that while the two genders are similar in a number of aspects, there are robust deviations that include multiple facets of social interactions, suggesting the existence of inherent behavioral differences. Finally, we quantify how aspects of an individual's characteristics and social behavior reveals their gender by posing it as a classification problem. We ask: How well can we distinguish between male and female study participants based on behavior alone? Which behavioral features are most predictive

A study of the relationship between certain tests and grades at Boston University School of Education

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

The Cowl - v. 72 - n. n/a - Oct 11, 2007

The Cowl - student newspaper of Providence College. Volume 72 - Number n/a - Winter Sports Preview - October 11, 2007. 8 pages

Quest for Knowledge and Pursuit of Grades: Information, Course Selection, and Grade Inflation at an Ivy League School

This paper exploits a unique natural experiment — Cornell University’s 1996 decision to publish course median grades online - to examine the effect of grade information on course selection and grade inflation. We model students’ course selection as dependent on their tastes, abilities, and expected grades. The model yields three testable hypotheses: (1) students will tend to be drawn to leniently graded courses once exposed to grade information; (2) the most talented students will be less drawn to leniently graded courses than their peers; (3) the change in students’ behavior will contribute to grade inflation. Examining a large dataset that covers the period 1990-2004 our study provides evidence consistent with these predictions

Spartan Daily, March 4, 1940

Volume 28, Issue 100https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/spartandaily/3047/thumbnail.jp