Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates

Despite the important role transmission line outages play in power system reliability analysis, it remains a challenge to estimate individual line outage rates accurately enough from limited data. Recent work using a Bayesian hierarchical model shows how to combine together line outage data by exploiting how the lines partially share some common features in order to obtain more accurate estimates of line outage rates. Lower variance estimates from fewer years of data can be obtained. In this paper, we explore what can be achieved with this new Bayesian hierarchical approach using real utility data. In particular, we assess the capability to detect increases in line outage rates over time, quantify the influence of bad weather on outage rates, and discuss the effect of outage rate uncertainty on a simple availability calculation

Active power sharing and frequency regulation in inverter-based islanded microgrids subject to clock drifts, damage in power links and loss of communications

Tesi en modalitat de compendi de publicacions; hi ha diferents seccions retallades per drets de l'editorMicrogrids (MGs) are small-scale power systems containing storage elements, loads and distributed generators that are interfaced with the electric network via power electronic inverters. When an MG is in islanded mode, its dynamics are no longer dominated by the main grid. Then, inverters, driven by digital processors that may exchange data over digital communication, must act as voltage source inverters (VSIs) to take coordinated actions to ensure power quality and supply. The scope of this thesis is bounded to control strategies for active power sharing and frequency regulation in islanded MGs. The focus is on the analysis of prototype control policies when operating conditions are no longer ideal. In particular, the thesis covers the effect that a) clock drifts of digital processors, b) damage in power transmission lines, and c) failures in digital communications have in control performance. The work is submitted as a compendium of publications, including journal and international conference papers, where two main areas of research can be distinguished. The first area refers to the analysis of the effect that clock drifts have on frequency regulation and active power sharing. VSIs digital processors are equipped with oscillators, which run at not necessarily identical frequencies. As consequence, the local clocks in the physically distributed VSIs may differ. This part, reported in two conference papers and one journal paper, investigates state-of-the-art control policies when clocks of the computational devices drift. The contributions related to this part are a) the reformulation of existing control policies in terms of clock drifts, b) the steady-state analysis of these policies that offers analytical expressions to quantify the impact that drifts have on frequency and active power equilibrium points, c) the closed-loop model capable of accommodating all the policies, d) the stability analysis of the equilibrium points, and e) the experimental results. The second area copes with the analysis of the effect that electrical and communication failures have on frequency regulation and active power sharing. This investigation focuses on distributed/cooperative control policies where each inverter control action is computed using both local measures and data received from other inverters within the MG. This part, reported in one conference paper and two journal papers, investigates two control policies when the considered failures in terms of damage in power links and/or loss of communication between inverters provoke partitions within the MG. The contributions related to this part are a) the formulation of the MG as two connected graphs corresponding to the electrical and communication networks where both type of failures lead to disconnected electrical/communication sub-graphs, named partitions, that co-exist within the MG, b) the closed-loop model integrating the two graph Laplacian matrices, c) the stability analysis that identifies which type of partitions may lead to MG instability, d) the steady-state analysis that indicates how to compute the equilibrium points for the case of stable dynamics, e) a new control strategy based on switched control principles that permits avoiding the instability scenario, and f) the experimental results. For the purpose of verifying the operational performance of the analytical results, diverse experiments on a laboratory MG have been performed. The outcomes obtained are discussed and analyzed in terms of the objectives sought. Finally, conclusions and future research lines complete the thesis.Las microredes (MG) son sistemas de energía a pequeña escala que contienen elementos de almacenamiento, cargas y generadores distribuidos que están conectados con la red eléctrica a través de inversores de potencia. Cuando una MG está en modo aislado, su dinámica no está dominada por la red principal. Así, los inversores, comandados por procesadores digitales que pueden intercambiar información a través de comunicaciones digitales, deben actuar como fuentes de voltaje para ejecutar acciones coordinadas que garanticen el suministro de energía. Esta tesis se enmarca dentro de estrategias de control de última generación para compartir potencia activa y regular frecuencia en MG aisladas basadas en inversores. Su enfoque se centra en analizar estas políticas cuando las condiciones de operación no son ideales. En particular, la tesis cubre el efecto que a) desviaciones del reloj de los procesadores digitales, b) daños en las líneas de transmisión de energía, y c) fallas en las comunicaciones digitales, provocan en el rendimiento de control. El trabajo se presenta como un compendio que incluye publicaciones de revistas y de conferencias internacionales, donde se pueden distinguir dos temas principales de investigación. El primer tema comprende el análisis del efecto que tienen las desviaciones de reloj sobre la regulación de frecuencia y la compartición de potencia activa. Los procesadores de los inversores están equipados con osciladores que funcionan a frecuencias no necesariamente idénticas. Como consecuencia, los relojes locales en los inversores distribuidos físicamente, pueden diferir. Esta parte, descrita a través de dos artículos de conferencia y uno de revista, analiza el comportamiento de las políticas de control cuando los relojes de los dispositivos computacionales se desvían. Las contribuciones relacionadas con este tema son a) reformulación de las políticas de control de última generación en términos de desviaciones de reloj, b) análisis de estado estacionario de estas estrategias que ofrece expresiones analíticas para cuantificar el impacto que las desviaciones de reloj tienen sobre los puntos de equilibrio de frecuencia y potencia activa, c) modelo de lazo cerrado adaptable a todas las políticas, d) análisis de estabilidad de los puntos de equilibrio, y e) resultados experimentales. El segundo tema hace frente al análisis del efecto que las fallas eléctricas y de comunicaciones tienen sobre la regulación de frecuencia y el uso compartido de potencia activa. Esta parte se centra en políticas de control distribuido/cooperativo donde cada acción de control del inversor se calcula utilizando medidas locales y datos recibidos de otros inversores de la MG. Esta parte, descrita a través de un artículo de conferencia y dos de revista, investiga dos políticas de control cuando particiones en la MG son provocadas por daños en los enlaces de alimentación y/o por pérdida de comunicación entre inversores. Las contribuciones relacionadas con este tema son a) formulación de la MG como dos grafos correspondientes a las redes eléctrica y de comunicación donde ambos tipos de fallas conducen a sub-grafos eléctricos/comunicacionales desconectados, llamados particiones, que coexisten dentro de la MG, b) modelo de lazo cerrado que integra las matrices Laplacianas de los dos grafos, c) análisis de estabilidad que identifica las particiones que pueden conducir a inestabilidad en la MG, d) análisis de estado estacionario para calcular puntos de equilibrio cuando la dinámica es estable, e) nueva estrategia basada en principios de control conmutado para evitar el escenario de inestabilidad, y f) resultados experimentales. Con el fin de verificar el rendimiento operativo de los resultados analíticos, se han realizado diversos experimentos sobre una microred de laboratorio, los mismos que se discuten en términos de los objetivos de la tesis. El trabajo finaliza con las conclusionesPostprint (published version

Deep Learning Techniques for Power System Operation: Modeling and Implementation

The fast development of the deep learning (DL) techniques in the most recent years has drawn attention from both academia and industry. And there have been increasing applications of the DL techniques in many complex real-world situations, including computer vision, medical diagnosis, and natural language processing. The great power and flexibility of DL can be attributed to its hierarchical learning structure that automatically extract features from mass amounts of data. In addition, DL applies an end-to-end solving mechanism, and directly generates the output from the input, where the traditional machine learning methods usually break down the problem and combine the results. The end-to-end mechanism considerably improve the computational efficiency of the DL.The power system is one of the most complex artificial infrastructures, and many power system control and operation problems share the same features as the above mentioned real-world applications, such as time variability and uncertainty, partial observability, which impedes the performance of the conventional model-based methods. On the other hand, with the wide spread implementation of Advanced Metering Infrastructures (AMI), the SCADA, the Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS), and many other measuring system providing massive data from the field, the data-driven deep learning technique is becoming an intriguing alternative method to enable the future development and success of the smart grid. This dissertation aims to explore the potential of utilizing the deep-learning-based approaches to solve a broad range of power system modeling and operation problems. First, a comprehensive literature review is conducted to summarize the existing applications of deep learning techniques in power system area. Second, the prospective application of deep learning techniques in several scenarios in power systems, including contingency screening, cascading outage search, multi-microgrid energy management, residential HVAC system control, and electricity market bidding are discussed in detail in the following 2-6 chapters. The problem formulation, the specific deep learning approaches in use, and the simulation results are all presented, and also compared with the currently used model-based method as a verification of the advantage of deep learning. Finally, the conclusions are provided in the last chapter, as well as the directions for future researches. It’s hoped that this dissertation can work as a single spark of fire to enlighten more innovative ideas and original studies, widening and deepening the application of deep learning technique in the field of power system, and eventually bring some positive impacts to the real-world bulk grid resilient and economic control and operation