Enhanced manufacturing storage management using data mining prediction techniques

Performing an efficient storage management is a key issue for reducing costs in the manufacturing process. And the first step to accomplish this task is to have good estimations of the consumption of every storage component. For making accurate consumption estimations two main approaches are possible: using past utilization values (time series); and/or considering other external factors affecting the spending rates. Time series forecasting is the most common approach due to the fact that not always is clear the causes affecting consumption. Several classical methods have extensively been used, mainly ARIMA models. As an alternative, in this paper it is proposed to use prediction techniques based on the data mining realm. The use of consumption prediction algorithms clearly increases the storage management efficiency. The predictors based on data mining can offer enhanced solutions in many cases.Telefónica, through the “Cátedra de Telefónica Inteligencia en la Red”Paloma Luna Garrid

Mining frequent biological sequences based on bitmap without candidate sequence generation

Biological sequences carry a lot of important genetic information of organisms. Furthermore, there is an inheritance law related to protein function and structure which is useful for applications such as disease prediction. Frequent sequence mining is a core technique for association rule discovery, but existing algorithms suffer from low efficiency or poor error rate because biological sequences differ from general sequences with more characteristics. In this paper, an algorithm for mining Frequent Biological Sequence based on Bitmap, FBSB, is proposed. FBSB uses bitmaps as the simple data structure and transforms each row into a quicksort list QS-list for sequence growth. For the continuity and accuracy requirement of biological sequence mining, tested sequences used during the mining process of FBSB are real ones instead of generated candidates, and all the frequent sequences can be mined without any errors. Comparing with other algorithms, the experimental results show that FBSB can achieve a better performance on both run time and scalability

Ensemble-based prediction of business processes bottlenecks with recurrent concept drifts

Bottleneck prediction is an important sub-task of process mining that aims at optimizing the discovered process models by avoiding such congestions. This paper discusses an ongoing work on incorporating recurrent concept drift in bottleneck prediction when applied to a real-world scenario. In the field of process mining, we develop a method of predicting whether and which bottlenecks will likely appear based on data known before a case starts. We next introduce GRAEC, a carefully-designed weighting mechanism to deal with concept drifts. The weighting decays over time and is extendable to adapt to seasonality in data. The methods are then applied to a simulation, and an invoicing process in the field of installation services in real-world settings. The results show an improvement to prediction accuracy compared to retraining a model on the most recent data.</p

"A Two-Stage Prediction Model for Web Page Transition"

Utilizing data from a log file, a two-stage model for step-ahead web page prediction that permits adaptive page customization in real-time is proposed. The first stage predicts the next page of a viewer based on a variant of a Markov transition matrix computed from page sequences of other visitors who read the same pages as that viewer did thus far. The second stage re-analyzes the incorrect exit/continuation predictions of the first stage through data mining, incorporating the visitor's viewing behavior observed from the log file. The two-stage process takes advantage of a robust, theory-driven nature of statistical modeling for extracting the overall feature of the data, and a flexible, data-driven nature of data mining to capture any idiosyncrasies and complications unresolved in the first stage. The empirical result with a test site implies that the first stage alone is sufficiently accurate (50.3%) in predicting page transitions. Prediction of site exit was even better with 100% of the exit and 90.8% of the continuation predictions being correct. The result was compared against other models for predictive accuracy.

Run-time prediction of business process indicators using evolutionary decision rules

Predictive monitoring of business processes is a challenging topic of process mining which is concerned with the prediction of process indicators of running process instances. The main value of predictive monitoring is to provide information in order to take proactive and corrective actions to improve process performance and mitigate risks in real time. In this paper, we present an approach for predictive monitoring based on the use of evolutionary algorithms. Our method provides a novel event window-based encoding and generates a set of decision rules for the run-time prediction of process indicators according to event log properties. These rules can be interpreted by users to extract further insight of the business processes while keeping a high level of accuracy. Furthermore, a full software stack consisting of a tool to support the training phase and a framework that enables the integration of run-time predictions with business process management systems, has been developed. Obtained results show the validity of our proposal for two large real-life datasets: BPI Challenge 2013 and IT Department of Andalusian Health Service (SAS).Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2015-70560-RJunta de Andalucía P12TIC-186

Knowledge discovery techniques for transactional data model

In this work we give solutions to two key knowledge discovery problems for the Transactional Data model: Cluster analysis and Itemset mining. By knowledge discovery in context of these two problems, we specifically mean novel and useful ways of extracting clusters and itemsets from transactional data. Transactional Data model is widely used in a variety of applications. In cluster analysis the goal is to find clusters of similar transactions in the data with the collective properties of each cluster being unique. We propose the first clustering algorithm for transactional data which uses the latest model definition. All previously proposed algorithms did not use the important utility information in the data. Our novel technique effectively solves this problem. We also propose two new cluster validation metrics based on the criterion of high utility patterns. When comparing our technique with competing algorithms, we miss much fewer high utility patterns of importance than them. Itemset mining is the problem of searching for repeating patterns of high importance in the data. We show that the current model for itemset mining leads to information loss. It ignores the presence of clusters in the data. We propose a new itemset mining model which incorporates the cluster structure information. This allows the model to make predictions for future itemsets. We show that our model makes accurate predictions successfully, by discovering 30-40% future itemsets in most experiments on two benchmark datasets with negligible inaccuracies. There are no other present itemset prediction models, so accurate prediction is an accomplishment of ours. We provide further theoretical improvements in our model by making it capable of giving predictions for specific future windows by using time series forecasting. We also perform a detailed analysis of various clustering algorithms and study the effect of the Big Data phenomenon on them. This inspired us to further refine our model based on a classification problem design. This addition allows the mining of itemsets based on maximizing a customizable objective function made of different prediction metrics. The final framework design proposed by us is the first of its kind to make itemset predictions by using the cluster structure. It is capable of adapting the predictions to a specific future window and customizes the mining process to any specified prediction criterion. We create an implementation of the framework on a Web analytics data set, and notice that it successfully makes optimal prediction configuration choices with a high accuracy of 0.895

Software Defect Prediction Based on Classication Rule Mining

There has been rapid growth of software development. Due to various causes, the software comes with many defects. In Software development process, testing of software is the main phase which reduces the defects of the software. If a developer or a tester can predict the software defects properly then, it reduces the cost, time and eort. In this paper, we show a comparative analysis of software defect prediction based on classifcation rule mining. We propose a scheme for this process and we choose different classication algorithms. Showing the comparison of predictions in software defects analysis. This evaluation analyzes the prediction performance of competing learning schemes for given historical data sets(NASA MDP Data Set). The result of this scheme evaluation shows that we have to choose different classifer rule for different data set

An Investigation in Efficient Spatial Patterns Mining

The technical progress in computerized spatial data acquisition and storage results in the growth of vast spatial databases. Faced with large amounts of increasing spatial data, a terminal user has more difficulty in understanding them without the helpful knowledge from spatial databases. Thus, spatial data mining has been brought under the umbrella of data mining and is attracting more attention. Spatial data mining presents challenges. Differing from usual data, spatial data includes not only positional data and attribute data, but also spatial relationships among spatial events. Further, the instances of spatial events are embedded in a continuous space and share a variety of spatial relationships, so the mining of spatial patterns demands new techniques. In this thesis, several contributions were made. Some new techniques were proposed, i.e., fuzzy co-location mining, CPI-tree (Co-location Pattern Instance Tree), maximal co-location patterns mining, AOI-ags (Attribute-Oriented Induction based on Attributes’ Generalization Sequences), and fuzzy association prediction. Three algorithms were put forward on co-location patterns mining: the fuzzy co-location mining algorithm, the CPI-tree based co-location mining algorithm (CPI-tree algorithm) and the orderclique- based maximal prevalence co-location mining algorithm (order-clique-based algorithm). An attribute-oriented induction algorithm based on attributes’ generalization sequences (AOI-ags algorithm) is further given, which unified the attribute thresholds and the tuple thresholds. On the two real-world databases with time-series data, a fuzzy association prediction algorithm is designed. Also a cell-based spatial object fusion algorithm is proposed. Two fuzzy clustering methods using domain knowledge were proposed: Natural Method and Graph-Based Method, both of which were controlled by a threshold. The threshold was confirmed by polynomial regression. Finally, a prototype system on spatial co-location patterns’ mining was developed, and shows the relative efficiencies of the co-location techniques proposed The techniques presented in the thesis focus on improving the feasibility, usefulness, effectiveness, and scalability of related algorithm. In the design of fuzzy co-location Abstract mining algorithm, a new data structure, the binary partition tree, used to improve the process of fuzzy equivalence partitioning, was proposed. A prefix-based approach to partition the prevalent event set search space into subsets, where each sub-problem can be solved in main-memory, was also presented. The scalability of CPI-tree algorithm is guaranteed since it does not require expensive spatial joins or instance joins for identifying co-location table instances. In the order-clique-based algorithm, the co-location table instances do not need be stored after computing the Pi value of corresponding colocation, which dramatically reduces the executive time and space of mining maximal colocations. Some technologies, for example, partitions, equivalence partition trees, prune optimization strategies and interestingness, were used to improve the efficiency of the AOI-ags algorithm. To implement the fuzzy association prediction algorithm, the “growing window” and the proximity computation pruning were introduced to reduce both I/O and CPU costs in computing the fuzzy semantic proximity between time-series. For new techniques and algorithms, theoretical analysis and experimental results on synthetic data sets and real-world datasets were presented and discussed in the thesis