The phase relation between sunspot numbers and soft X-ray flares

To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008. It is found that the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of 13, 8, and 8 months in cycle 21 respectively with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. There is no time lag between the sunspot numbers and M-class flares in cycle 22. However, there is a one-month time lag for C-class flares and a one-month time lead for X-class flares with regard to sunspot numbers in cycle 22. For cycle 23, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of one month, 5 months, and 21 months respectively with respect to sunspot numbers. If we take the three types of flares together, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of soft X-ray flares have a time lag of 9 months in cycle 21, no time lag in cycle 22 and a characteristic time lag of 5 months in cycle 23 with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients of the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of M-class and X-class flares and the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers are higher in cycle 22 than those in cycles 21 and 23. The correlation coefficients between the three kinds of soft X-ray flares in cycle 22 are higher than those in cycles 21 and 23. These findings may be instructive in predicting C-class, M-class, and X-class flares regarding sunspot numbers in the next cycle and the physical processes of energy storage and dissipation in the corona.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

Modelling distributed lag effects in epidemiological time series studies

The paper argues that much of the existing literature on air pollution and mortality deals only with the transient effects of air pollution. Policy, on the other hand, needs to know when, whether and to what extent pollution-induced increases in mortality are reversed. This involves modelling the entire distributed lag effects of air pollution. Borrowing from econometrics this paper presents a method by which distributed lag effects can be estimated parsimoniously but plausibly estimated. The paper presents a time series study into the relationship between ambient levels of air pollution and daily mortality counts for Manchester employing this technique. Black Smoke is shown to have a highly significant effect on mortality counts in the short term. Nevertheless we find that 80 percent of the deaths attributable to BS would have occurred anyway within one week whereas the remaining 20 percent of individuals would otherwise have enjoyed a normal life expectancy

Delay time modulation induced oscillating synchronization and intermittent anticipatory/lag and complete synchronizations in time-delay nonlinear dynamical systems

Existence of a new type of oscillating synchronization that oscillates between three different types of synchronizations (anticipatory, complete and lag synchronizations) is identified in unidirectionally coupled nonlinear time-delay systems having two different time-delays, that is feedback delay with a periodic delay time modulation and a constant coupling delay. Intermittent anticipatory, intermittent lag and complete synchronizations are shown to exist in the same system with identical delay time modulations in both the delays. The transition from anticipatory to complete synchronization and from complete to lag synchronization as a function of coupling delay with suitable stability condition is discussed. The intermittent anticipatory and lag synchronizations are characterized by the minimum of similarity functions and the intermittent behavior is characterized by a universal asymptotic $-{3/2}$ power law distribution. It is also shown that the delay time carved out of the trajectories of the time-delay system with periodic delay time modulation cannot be estimated using conventional methods, thereby reducing the possibility of decoding the message by phase space reconstruction.Comment: accepted for publication in CHAOS, revised in response to referees comment

The variability of optical \feii emission in PG QSO 1700+518

It is found that \feii emission contributes significantly to the optical and ultraviolet spectra of most active galactic nuclei. The origin of the optical/UV \feii emission is still a question open to debate. The variability of \feii would give clues to this origin. Using 7.5 yr spectroscopic monitoring data of one Palomer-Green (PG) quasi-stellar object (QSO), PG 1700+518, with strong optical \feii emission, we obtain the light curves of the continuum \lv, \feii, the broad component of \hb, and the narrow component of \hb by the spectral decomposition. Through the interpolation cross-correlation method, we calculate the time lags for light curves of \feii, the total \hb, the broad component of \hb, and the narrow component of \hb with respect to the continuum light curve. We find that the \feii time lag in PG1700+518 is $209^{+100}_{-147}$ days, and the \hb time lag cannot be determined. Assuming that \feii and \hb emission regions follow the virial relation between the time lag and the FWHM for the \hb and \feii emission lines, we can derive that the \hb time lag is $148^{+72}_{-104}$ days. The \hb time lag calculated from the empirical luminosity--size relation is 222 days, which is consistent with our measured \feii time lag. Considering the optical \feii contribution, PG 1700+518 shares the same characteristic on the spectral slope variability as other 15 PG QSOs in our previous work, i.e., harder spectrum during brighter phase.Comment: 6 apges, ApJ, in pres

Inner Size of a Dust Torus in the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 4151

The most intense monitoring observations yet made were carried out on the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4151 in the optical and near-infrared wave-bands. A lag from the optical light curve to the near-infrared light curve was measured. The lag-time between the V and K light curves at the flux minimum in 2001 was precisely 48+2-3 days, as determined by a cross-correlation analysis. The correlation between the optical luminosity of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and the lag-time between the UV/optical and the near-infrared light curves is presented for NGC 4151 in combination with previous lag-time measurements of NGC 4151 and other AGNs in the literature. This correlation is interpreted as thermal dust reverberation in an AGN, where the near-infrared emission from an AGN is expected to be the thermal re-radiation from hot dust surrounding the central engine at a radius where the temperature equals to that of the dust sublimation temperature. We find that the inner radius of the dust torus in NGC 4151 is $\sim$ 0.04 pc corresponding to the measured lag-time, well outside the broad line region (BLR) determined by other reverberation studies of the emission lines.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, 13 pages, 3 figures; Corrected typo

The time-lag -- photon-index correlation in GX 339--4

Black-hole transients exhibit a correlation between the time lag of hard photons with respect to softer ones and the photon index of the hard X-ray power law. The correlation is not very tight and therefore it is necessary to examine it source by source. The objective of the present work is to investigate in detail the time-lag -- photon-index correlation in GX 339-4. We have obtained RXTE energy spectra and light curves and have computed the photon index and the time lag of the $9 - 15$ keV photons with respect to the $2 - 6$ keV ones. The observations cover the first stages of the hard state, the pure hard state, and the hard-intermediate state. At low $\Gamma$, the correlation is positive and it becomes negative at large $\Gamma$. By assuming that the hard X-ray power law index $\Gamma$ is produced by inverse Compton scattering of soft disk photons in the jet, we have reproduced the entire correlation by varying two parameters in the jet: the radius of the jet at its base $R_0$ and the Thomson optical depth along the jet $\tau_\parallel$. We have found that, as the luminosity of the source increases, $R_0$ initially increases and then decreases. This behavior is expected in the context of the Cosmic Battery. As a further test of our model, we predict the break frequency in the radio spectrum as a function of the photon index during the rising part of an outburst