Through-life NEC scenario development

Scenarios are an important planning tool used by individuals, businesses and governments (especially in the military domain), but many of the currently used approaches focus solely on acute probabilistic timeframes and specific metricated instances of possible future states. Using a mixed method research methodology, we develop a scenario approach in which multiple timeframes are accommodated by fitting vignettes within each other to represent different time levels. This has the advantage of presenting the end-to-end process of capability development and instantiation. We describe the methodology employed to generate such a scenario as a demonstration aid for a large, multidisciplinary research program in systems of systems engineering. The process of scenario generation was an effective integration tool within this program (that included twelve distributed research groups). The resultant scenario enabled engagement of multiple stakeholders in an integrated demonstration of systems related research outputs. We recommend a new class of scenario (a “research scenario”) for incorporation within the standard classifications of scenario types

Demonstrating through-life and NEC requirements for defence systems

There are two major transformations currently occurring that significantly impact acquisition and management of military systems. Network Enabled Capability (NEC) demands careful consideration of interoperability for delivered systems; new systems must be introduced such that they are interoperable with current systems and legacy systems must be managed (upgraded, modified etc.) such that interoperability is maintained and, preferably, enhanced. Eventually, NEC considerations should become ‘business as usual’, but for the time being special consideration is needed. The second transformation is the introduction of the concept of Through Life Capability Management (TLCM). Although new systems have always been planned with consideration of their maintenance etc., TLCM has a wider scope. It requires consideration not only of the individual systems’ life cycles, but of the management of the super system in which new systems will operate. The whole life costs, risks, and development must be considered by systems designers and owners. These transformations are linked; interoperability is a key requirement of TLCM. Through a concept mapping of TLCM, Yue & Henshaw (1) have shown that TLCM implies a need for new approaches (new thinking) in defence systems design and acquisition. Also TLCM requires the defence supply chain (industry) to have a changed engagement in the delivery and management of systems. This, in turn, requires changes to the industry-customer relationship, such that new approaches to collaboration are a vital ingredient necessary for adherence to TLCM principles. The NECTISE (Network Enabled Capability Through Innovative Systems Engineering: www.nectise.com) programme was a large academic-industry research programme (part sponsored by industry) to investigate the implications for systems engineering arising from NEC and TLCM considerations. The programme included ten UK universities, and industry technologists and systems engineers from land, sea, air, and C4I domains. NECTISE considered systems processes and approaches from all parts of the capability management process (planning, design, change, and realisation in military operations). A number of new tools and processes were developed and an important part of the programme was to demonstrate these in context and together. This demonstration was achieved through development of a scenario that considered the full systems acquisition and management process. By linking a set of vignettes with different timeframes it was possible to track an exemplar system through the planning to realisation and use stages. The scenario development drew heavily on the TTCP GUIDEx approach to defence experimentation; this enabled effective multi-disciplinary collaboration and integration of many different research threads. This paper will describe the scenario planning activity and outcome and illustrate the manner in which linked research outputs were integrated into a systems engineering demonstration. The importance of systems architecting, both to the demonstration and (more importantly) as a key underpinning skill for TLCM and NEC will be emphasised. The approach taken in this demonstration of research has implications for the approaches that should be taken for defence procurement decision making in a TLCM and NEC characterised acquisition environment. These are described and the implications of TLCM for decision making is also highlighted

Preventing disease and saving resources:the potential contribution of increasing breastfeeding rates in the UK

Two challenges stand out as we contemplate the future of health services in the United Kingdom. The first is the state of the public finances and therefore the pressure in real terms on health services funding. The second is the recurring and vexing problem of health inequalities. The state of health inequalities in Britain has been commented on by many, but we have seen precious little real change in the disproportionate burden of early death and illness among the most disadvantaged and indeed across the whole health gradient in recent years.This work was funded by UNICEF UK

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis in experimental necrotizing enterocolitis: alterations in inflammation, innate immune response, and the microbiota.

BackgroundProbiotics decrease the risk of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). We sought to determine the impact of Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis (B. infantis) in the established rat model of NEC.MethodsRat pups delivered 1 d prior to term gestation were assigned to one of three groups: dam fed (DF), formula fed (FF), or fed with formula supplemented with 5 × 10(6) CFU B. infantis per day (FF+Binf). Experimental pups were exposed to hypoxia and cold stress. Ileal tissue was examined for pathology and expression of inflammatory mediators, antimicrobial peptides, and goblet-cell products. Ceca were assessed for bacterial composition by analysis of the 16S rRNA sequence.ResultsAdministration of B. infantis significantly reduced the incidence of NEC, decreased expression of Il6, Cxcl1, Tnfa, Il23, and iNOS, and decreased expression of the antimicrobial peptides Reg3b and Reg3g. There was significant microbial heterogeneity both within groups and between experiments. The cecal microbiota was not significantly different between the FF and FF+Binf groups. Bifidobacteria were not detected in the cecum in significant numbers.ConclusionIn the rat model, the inflammation associated with NEC was attenuated by administration of probiotic B. infantis. Dysbiosis was highly variable, precluding determination of the precise role of the microbiota in experimental NEC

An architecture for organisational decision support

The Decision Support (DS) topic of the Network Enabled Capability for Through Life Systems Engineering (NECTISE) project aims to provide organisational through-life decision support for the products and services that BAE Systems deliver. The topic consists of five streams that cover resource capability management, decision management, collaboration, change prediction and integration. A proposed architecture is presented for an Integrated Decision Support Environment (IDSE) that combines the streams to provide a structured approach to addressing a number of issues that have been identified by BAE Systems business units as being relevant to DS: uncertainty and risk, shared situational awareness, types of decision making, decision tempo, triggering of decisions, and support for autonomous decision making. The proposed architecture will identify how either individuals or groups of decision makers (including autonomous agents) would be utilised on the basis of their capability within the requirements of the scenario to collaboratively solve the decision problem. Features of the scenario such as time criticality, required experience level, the need for justification, and conflict management, will be addressed within the architecture to ensure that the most appropriate decision management support (system/naturalistic/hybrid) is provided. In addition to being reliant on a number of human factors issues, the decision making process is also reliant on a number of information issues: overload, consistency, completeness, uncertainty and evolution, which will be discussed within the context of the architecture

Modeling Economic, Social and Environmental Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and The Russian Federation

The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which entered into force in 1997 foresees the possible establishment of a free trade area (FTA) between the parties. The aim of our study is to evaluate the possible economic, social and environmental impact of such a free trade agreement between the European Union and Russia. The results of the analysis indicate that an EU-Russia FTA will be beneficial to the Russian Federation and the EU27. Some sectors are expected to contract in the medium term, but their importance in total output is small. Over the long run, the majority of sectors in Russia are expected to expand, while only a few sectors in the EU27 are expected to register negligible decreases in output. We estimate that welfare losses from the environmental damages would be very small for Russia (possibly even smaller due to the implementation of greener technologies), and negligible for the EU. Despite some significant negative medium-term social implications in selected sectors in Russia, the overall increase in economic activity and wages, coupled with likely domestic policies aiming at easing the impact of transitional unemployment, are expected to allow for the overall reduction in poverty rates. Overall, the results show that significant welfare gains (2.24% of GDP for Russia) would accrue from the deep FTA scenario involving a significant reduction of NTBs along with additional flanking measures, particularly on competition, IPR protection and corruption, which would help re-branding of Russia as a safe and attractive investment location. Also a number of countries such as Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden are expected to see their welfare increase by around 0.5% of GDP.free trade agreement, WTO accession, European Union, Russian Federation, labor market, environment, NTBs, CGE

THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF BREASTFEEDING: A REVIEW AND ANALYSIS

A minimum of $3.6 billion would be saved if breastfeeding were increased from current levels (64 percent in-hospital, 29 percent at 6 months) to those recommended by the U.S. Surgeon General (75 and 50 percent). This figure is likely an underestimation of the total savings because it represents cost savings from the treatment of only three childhood illnesses: otitis media, gastroenteritis, and necrotizing enterocolitis. This report reviews breastfeeding trends and previous studies that assessed the economic benefits of breastfeeding.Breastfeeding, economic benefits, otitis media, gastroenteritis, necrotizing enterocolitis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,