Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

Personalizing Session-based Recommendations with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks

Session-based recommendations are highly relevant in many modern on-line services (e.g. e-commerce, video streaming) and recommendation settings. Recently, Recurrent Neural Networks have been shown to perform very well in session-based settings. While in many session-based recommendation domains user identifiers are hard to come by, there are also domains in which user profiles are readily available. We propose a seamless way to personalize RNN models with cross-session information transfer and devise a Hierarchical RNN model that relays end evolves latent hidden states of the RNNs across user sessions. Results on two industry datasets show large improvements over the session-only RNNs

Recommender systems in industrial contexts

This thesis consists of four parts: - An analysis of the core functions and the prerequisites for recommender systems in an industrial context: we identify four core functions for recommendation systems: Help do Decide, Help to Compare, Help to Explore, Help to Discover. The implementation of these functions has implications for the choices at the heart of algorithmic recommender systems. - A state of the art, which deals with the main techniques used in automated recommendation system: the two most commonly used algorithmic methods, the K-Nearest-Neighbor methods (KNN) and the fast factorization methods are detailed. The state of the art presents also purely content-based methods, hybridization techniques, and the classical performance metrics used to evaluate the recommender systems. This state of the art then gives an overview of several systems, both from academia and industry (Amazon, Google ...). - An analysis of the performances and implications of a recommendation system developed during this thesis: this system, Reperio, is a hybrid recommender engine using KNN methods. We study the performance of the KNN methods, including the impact of similarity functions used. Then we study the performance of the KNN method in critical uses cases in cold start situation. - A methodology for analyzing the performance of recommender systems in industrial context: this methodology assesses the added value of algorithmic strategies and recommendation systems according to its core functions.Comment: version 3.30, May 201

A framework for automated anomaly detection in high frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors

River water-quality monitoring is increasingly conducted using automated in situ sensors, enabling timelier identification of unexpected values. However, anomalies caused by technical issues confound these data, while the volume and velocity of data prevent manual detection. We present a framework for automated anomaly detection in high-frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors, using turbidity, conductivity and river level data. After identifying end-user needs and defining anomalies, we ranked their importance and selected suitable detection methods. High priority anomalies included sudden isolated spikes and level shifts, most of which were classified correctly by regression-based methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average models. However, using other water-quality variables as covariates reduced performance due to complex relationships among variables. Classification of drift and periods of anomalously low or high variability improved when we applied replaced anomalous measurements with forecasts, but this inflated false positive rates. Feature-based methods also performed well on high priority anomalies, but were also less proficient at detecting lower priority anomalies, resulting in high false negative rates. Unlike regression-based methods, all feature-based methods produced low false positive rates, but did not and require training or optimization. Rule-based methods successfully detected impossible values and missing observations. Thus, we recommend using a combination of methods to improve anomaly detection performance, whilst minimizing false detection rates. Furthermore, our framework emphasizes the importance of communication between end-users and analysts for optimal outcomes with respect to both detection performance and end-user needs. Our framework is applicable to other types of high frequency time-series data and anomaly detection applications