Structured Prediction of Sequences and Trees using Infinite Contexts

Linguistic structures exhibit a rich array of global phenomena, however commonly used Markov models are unable to adequately describe these phenomena due to their strong locality assumptions. We propose a novel hierarchical model for structured prediction over sequences and trees which exploits global context by conditioning each generation decision on an unbounded context of prior decisions. This builds on the success of Markov models but without imposing a fixed bound in order to better represent global phenomena. To facilitate learning of this large and unbounded model, we use a hierarchical Pitman-Yor process prior which provides a recursive form of smoothing. We propose prediction algorithms based on A* and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Empirical results demonstrate the potential of our model compared to baseline finite-context Markov models on part-of-speech tagging and syntactic parsing

Hierarchical Bayesian Nonparametric Models for Power-Law Sequences

Sequence data that exhibits power-law behavior in its marginal and conditional distributions arises frequently from natural processes, with natural language text being a prominent example. We study probabilistic models for such sequences based on a hierarchical non-parametric Bayesian prior, develop inference and learning procedures for making these models useful in practice and applicable to large, real-world data sets, and empirically demonstrate their excellent predictive performance. In particular, we consider models based on the infinite-depth variant of the hierarchical Pitman-Yor process (HPYP) language model [Teh, 2006b] known as the Sequence Memoizer, as well as Sequence Memoizer-based cache language models and hybrid models combining the HPYP with neural language models. We empirically demonstrate that these models performwell on languagemodelling and data compression tasks

Mining International Political Norms from the GDELT Database

Researchers have long been interested in the role that norms can play in governing agent actions in multi-agent systems. Much work has been done on formalising normative concepts from human society and adapting them for the government of open software systems, and on the simulation of normative processes in human and artificial societies. However, there has been comparatively little work on applying normative MAS mechanisms to understanding the norms in human society. This work investigates this issue in the context of international politics. Using the GDELT dataset, containing machine-encoded records of international events extracted from news reports, we extracted bilateral sequences of inter-country events and applied a Bayesian norm mining mechanism to identify norms that best explained the observed behaviour. A statistical evaluation showed that the normative model fitted the data significantly better than a probabilistic discrete event model.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, pre-print for International Workshop on Coordination, Organizations, Institutions, Norms and Ethics for Governance of Multi-Agent Systems (COINE), co-located with AAMAS 202

Multiple Target Tracking with Recursive-RANSAC and Machine Learning

The Recursive-Random Sample Consensus (R-RANSAC) algorithm is a novel multiple target tracker designed to excel in tracking scenarios with high amounts of clutter measurements. R-RANSAC classifies each in-coming measurement as an inlier or an outlier; inliers are used to update existing tracks whereas are used to gen-erate new, hypothesis tracks using the standard RANSAC algorihtm. R-RANSAC is entirely autonomous in that it initiates, updates, and deletes tracks without user input. The tracking capabilities of R-RANSAC are extended by merging the algorithm with the Sequence Model (SM). The SM is a machine learner that learns sequences of identifiers. In the tracking context, the SM is used to learn sequences of target locations; in essence, it learns target trajectories and creates a probability distribution of future target locations. Simulation results demonstrate significant performance improvement when R-RANSAC is augmented with the SM, most noticeably in situation with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and infrequent measurement update

Comparing Probabilistic Models for Melodic Sequences

Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.Comment: in Proceedings of the ECML-PKDD 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 6913, pp. 289-304. Springer (2011

Fragment Grammars: Exploring Computation and Reuse in Language

Language relies on a division of labor between stored units and structure building operations which combine the stored units into larger structures. This division of labor leads to a tradeoff: more structure-building means less need to store while more storage means less need to compute structure. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model called fragment grammar to explore the optimum balance between structure-building and reuse. The model is developed in the context of stochastic functional programming (SFP) and in particular using a probabilistic variant of Lisp known as the Church programming language (Goodman, Mansinghka, Roy, Bonawitz, & Tenenbaum, 2008). We show how to formalize several probabilistic models of language structure using Church, and how fragment grammar generalizes one of them---adaptor grammars (Johnson, Griffiths, & Goldwater, 2007). We conclude with experimental data with adults and preliminary evaluations of the model on natural language corpus data