The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

Business and financial services: new engine of economic growth?

Does unbalanced sectoral productivity growth inevitably lead to continuous shift of resources to the less productive sectors and stagnation in aggregate productivity? This paper attempts to integrate the traditional stagnationist and the modern optimist arguments within a numerical simulation framework. The simulation framework consists of an applied general equilibrium multi-sectoral growth model for a small open regional economy that incorporates unbalanced sectoral growth and the growing role of business and financial services as intermediate service providers. The simulation results lend support to the stagnationist view in the long run but reveal some unconventional comparative-static properties in the short- to medium run

Eco Global Evaluation: Cross Benefits of Economic and Ecological Evaluation

This paper highlights the complementarities of cost and environmental evaluation in a sustainable approach. Starting with the needs and limits for whole product lifecycle evaluation, this paper begins with the modeling, data capture and performance indicator aspects. In a second step, the information issue, regarding the whole lifecycle of the product is addressed. In order to go further than the economical evaluations/assessment, the value concept (for a product or a service) is discussed. Value could combine functional requirements, cost objectives and environmental impact. Finally, knowledge issues which address the complexity of integrating multi-disciplinary expertise to the whole lifecycle of a product are discussing.EcoSD NetworkEcoSD networ

Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

Semiconductor manufacturing simulation design and analysis with limited data

This paper discusses simulation design and analysis for Silicon Carbide (SiC) manufacturing operations management at New York Power Electronics Manufacturing Consortium (PEMC) facility. Prior work has addressed the development of manufacturing system simulation as the decision support to solve the strategic equipment portfolio selection problem for the SiC fab design [1]. As we move into the phase of collecting data from the equipment purchased for the PEMC facility, we discuss how to redesign our manufacturing simulations and analyze their outputs to overcome the challenges that naturally arise in the presence of limited fab data. We conclude with insights on how an approach aimed to reflect learning from data can enable our discrete-event stochastic simulation to accurately estimate the performance measures for SiC manufacturing at the PEMC facility

Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

Business and Financial Services: New Engine of Economic Growth

Original paper can be found at: http://www.ecomod.net/conferences/ecomod2006/ecomod2006.htmDoes the continuous shift of resources from the traditional sectors to the business and financial services sector imply inevitable stagnation in the aggregate productivity growth in the developed economies Economic inquiry into this issue has generated contradictory conclusions. This paper evaluates the traditional stagnationist and the modern optimist arguments and employs an applied general equilibrium multi-sectoral growth model to simulate the impact of unbalanced sectoral productivity growth on the overall productivity growth path. A particular focus is on the relationship between a sector s industrial linkages and its impact on overall growth. The simulation results suggest that the actual aggregate productivity growth path in the long-run deviates from either case