The Relative Contributions of Private Information Sharing and Public Information Releases to Information Aggregation

We calculate learning rates when agents are informed through both public and private observation of other agents’ actions. We provide an explicit solution for the evolution of the distribution of posterior beliefs. When the private learning channel is present, we show that convergence of the distribution of beliefs to the perfect-information limit is exponential at a rate equal to the sum of the mean arrival rate of public information and the mean rate at which individual agents are randomly matched with other agents. If, however, there is no private information sharing, then convergence is exponential at a rate strictly lower than the mean arrival rate of public information

Transparent government, not transparent citizens: a report on privacy and transparency for the Cabinet Office

1. Privacy is extremely important to transparency. The political legitimacy of a transparency programme will depend crucially on its ability to retain public confidence. Privacy protection should therefore be embedded in any transparency programme, rather than bolted on as an afterthought. 2. Privacy and transparency are compatible, as long as the former is carefully protected and considered at every stage. 3. Under the current transparency regime, in which public data is specifically understood not to include personal data, most data releases will not raise privacy concerns. However, some will, especially as we move toward a more demand-driven scheme. 4. Discussion about deanonymisation has been driven largely by legal considerations, with a consequent neglect of the input of the technical community. 5. There are no complete legal or technical fixes to the deanonymisation problem. We should continue to anonymise sensitive data, being initially cautious about releasing such data under the Open Government Licence while we continue to take steps to manage and research the risks of deanonymisation. Further investigation to determine the level of risk would be very welcome. 6. There should be a focus on procedures to output an auditable debate trail. Transparency about transparency – metatransparency – is essential for preserving trust and confidence. Fourteen recommendations are made to address these conclusions

The Microstructure of Currency Markets

This article summarizes exchange-rate research using microstructure models. It first lays out the key features of the foreign exchange market and describes how they are incorporated into a canonical model of currency trading. The empirical implications of the model are then examined. The article also discusses how currency trading links spot rate dynamics to macroeconomic conditions, and how this link sheds light on some long standing puzzles concerning the behavior of exchange rates.Currency Trading, Exchange Rates, Exchange Rate Puzzles, Exchange Rate Fundamentals, Foreign Exchange Market, Microstructure, Order Flow, Risk Premium

Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model

We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et al. (2005), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting together with cross-equation accounting identities. A pseudo real-time forecasting exercise indicates that the model outperforms various benchmarks, such as quarterly time series models and bridge equations in forecasting growth in quarterly GDP and its components. JEL Classification: E37, C53Dynamic Factor Models, Interpolation, nowcasting

An Economic Analysis of Privacy Protection and Statistical Accuracy as Social Choices

Statistical agencies face a dual mandate to publish accurate statistics while protecting respondent privacy. Increasing privacy protection requires decreased accuracy. Recognizing this as a resource allocation problem, we propose an economic solution: operate where the marginal cost of increasing privacy equals the marginal benefit. Our model of production, from computer science, assumes data are published using an efficient differentially private algorithm. Optimal choice weighs the demand for accurate statistics against the demand for privacy. Examples from U.S. statistical programs show how our framework can guide decision-making. Further progress requires a better understanding of willingness-to-pay for privacy and statistical accuracy

Final Report:Health sector Public Expenditure Review(PER) update financial year (FY) 06

The Public Expenditure Review update for FY2005/06 (FY06) takes a slightly different form from previous years. A summary briefing paper was provided for discussion at the Annual Joint Heath Sector Review, while this later report has been provided as input to the Cluster PER and the budget process for FY2007/08. The change in timing had some negative consequences in that it overlapped with the final stages of the budgetary process for FY2006/07, making it more difficult than usual to access key individuals and data. Review of the PER findings and recommendations for FY05 found that there had been some progress in the area of lobbying for additional funds for that year’s budget, that it had been agreed to review the allocation formula for drugs and medical supplies, and that a tracking study on all drugs and supplies within the sector had been initiated. However, other recommendations had not been followed up, in part due to human resource constraints within the Department of Policy and Planning. Notable was the failure of the High Level committee on health financing, established during FY2003/04, to meet regularly and take forward the many issues in this area.\u

Inadequacies in the water reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic: an institutional analysis

Water resource management / Analysis / Irrigation management / Participatory management / Water users’ associations / Research methods / Agrarian reform / Irrigation programs / Operations / Maintenance / Conflict / Rivers / Kyrgyzstan

International Collaboration in Crop Improvement Research: Current Status and Future Prospects

Investments over the past 35 years have created a system of national and international research centers that has revolutionized the supply of improved cereal varieties to developing country farmers. The newly created scientific ability to exploit genetic resources has been the engine of productivity growth in much of world agriculture. But the success that has been attained in building research institutions has not touched all countries or farmers, nor can it be considered permanent. The financial and political environment of the past decade has halted the expansion of agricultural research capacity and the scarcity of research resources and evolving world intellectual property rights (IPR) regimes complicates the search for stable arrangements for cooperation. This paper examines the current structure and institutional capacity of the international crop breeding systems for rice and wheat. Discussions are presented within the context of a system composed of research functions spanning the basic to applied research spectrum. The model emphasizes that an efficient and stable international system may be comprised of many partner institutions, each with a limited breadth of research activities, particularly when research budgets are fixed or declining. The paper concludes with a review of some of the trends that will influence the future direction of research cooperation.Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Environmental Risk Management and the Business Firm

This chapter considers three matters that business firms whose activities can be dangerous for human health and the environment increasingly have to deal with: public disclosure of all health and environmental risks, direct involvement of stakeholders in the management of operations, and integration of health and environmental risk management with the management of other business risks. It summarizes recent managerial economics research on those matters and suggests some promising research areas. Ce chapitre considère trois questions qui préoccupent de plus en plus les firmes dont les activités font peser certains risques sur la santé humaine et l'environnement, soit la révélation au public de ces risques, l'implication directe de parties externes (assureurs, banquiers, représentants du public, etc.) dans la gestion des opérations, voire la planification stratégique, et la gestion intégrée de tous les risques d'affaires. On résume les récentes percées de l'économie managériale sur ces sujets, et l'on indique certaines pistes de recherche particulièrement prometteuses.Environmental risk disclosures, extended liability, integrated risk management, Bilan environnemental, responsabilité étendue, gestion intégrée des risques