What are the driving factors behind the rise of spreads and CDSs of Euro-area sovereign bonds? A FAVAR model for Greece and Ireland

This paper examines the underlying dynamics of selected euro-area sovereign bonds by employing a factor-augmenting vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model for the first time in the literature. This methodology allows for identifying the underlying transmission mechanisms of several factors; in particular, market liquidity and credit risk. Departing from the classical structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, it allows us to relax limitations regarding the choice of variables that could drive spreads and credit default swaps (CDSs) of euro-area sovereign debts. The results show that liquidity, credit risk, and flight to quality drive both spreads and CDSs of five years’ maturity over swaps for Greece and Ireland in recent years. Greece, in particular, is facing an elastic demand for its sovereign bonds that further stretches liquidity. Moreover, in current illiquid market conditions spreads will continue to follow a steep upward trend, with certain adverse financial stability implications. In addition, we observe a negative feedback effect from counterparty credit risk

Major trends in the U.S. financial system: implications and issues

Bank supervision ; Financial institutions

Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets

We provide the impact on asset prices of search-and-bargaining frictions in over-the-counter markets. Under certain conditions, illiquidity discounts are higher when counterparties are harder to find, when sellers have less bargaining power, when the fraction of qualified owners is smaller, or when risk aversion, volatility, or hedging demand are larger. Supply shocks cause prices to jump, and then "recover" over time, with a time signature that is exaggerated by search frictions. We discuss a variety of empirical implications.

Technology, Information Production, and Market Efficiency

A well functioning securities market relies on the availability of accurate information, a broad base of investors who can process this information, legal protection of these investors’ rights, and a liquid secondary market unencumbered by excessive transaction costs or constraints. When these conditions are satisfied, securities markets are likely to be broader and more efficient, with felicitous consequences for investment and resource allocation. This paper explores the effect of technological advances on these features of the market, emphasizing the incentives facing the producers of financial information.

Controversial Orthodoxy: The Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis And Loss Causation

Since the Supreme Court’s landmark holding in Basic, Inc. v. Levinson, courts have incorporated the efficient capital markets hypothesis as an analytical tool in securities fraud cases. Nevertheless, recent turmoil in the financial markets and a growing chorus of scholarship challenging traditional notions of market efficiency have caused some courts to reconsider the role of the efficient capital markets hypothesis in securities fraud litigation. This Note analyzes a question that has split the circuits and marks the intersection of market efficiency and securities fraud: how quickly must an equity security depreciate in price following the publication of a corrective disclosure for a plaintiff to plead and prove loss causation? Part I introduces the efficient capital markets hypothesis, securities fraud actions, and the ways in which courts have traditionally employed concepts of market efficiency into their analyses. Part II analyzes the circuit split regarding the speed with which the market must incorporate information into price for a plaintiff to properly plead and prove loss causation. Finally, Part III argues that courts should resist the temptation to draw bright-line rules in the context of loss causation and should engage each case on its facts by analyzing the efficiency of the relevant market during each event giving rise to the fraud and economic loss

Simulating interbank payment and securities settlement mechanisms with the BoF-PSS2 simulator

The simulation technique provides a new means for analysing complex interdependencies in payment and securities settlement processing. The Bank of Finland has developed a payment and settlement system simulator (BoF-PSS2) that can be used for constructing simulation models of payment and securities settlement systems. This paper describes the main elements of payment and settlement systems (system structures, interdependencies, processing steps, liquidity consumption, cost and risk dimensions) and how these can be treated in simulation studies. It gives also examples on how these elements have been incorporated in the simulator, as well as an overview of the structure and the features of the BoF-PSS2 simulator.simulations; simulator; payment systems; clearing/settlement; liquidity

Three Liquidity Crises in Retrospective: Implications for Central Banking Today

Liquidity problems lie at the heart of crises on financial markets as demonstrated in this paper by detailed descriptions of the stock market crash in 1987, the LTCM-crisis in 1998 and the financial market consequences of 11 September 2001. The events also demonstrate that modern central banks, in particular the U.S. Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan, provided emergency liquidity to limit the negative effects of such crises. However, the anecdotal and empirical evidence from the three crises shows that such emergency liquidity assistance implies risks to goods price stability if it is not focused on the interbank market and quickly sterilised