The power of prediction with social media

Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians – among others – new opportunities for research. Arguably, one of the most interesting lines of work is that of predicting future events and developments from social media data. However, current work is fragmented and lacks of widely accepted evaluation approaches. Moreover, since the first techniques emerged rather recently, little is known about their overall potential, limitations and general applicability to different domains. Therefore, better understanding the predictive power and limitations of social media is of utmost importanc

A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

Feature Investigation for Stock Returns Prediction Using XGBoost and Deep Learning Sentiment Classification

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify the impact features make on so-called “black box” models

Recommendations in Social Media Applications to Ensure Personification and Safety using Machine Learning

Myriads of social media utilization lead to various issues like personalization hacks, data security problems, and safety. A recommendation is of paramount importance to alleviate this problem when there is a huge amount of data and the number of participants on the platform is increasing exponentially. Unfortunately, modern social media research has enhanced the performance and personalization of recommendations in many fields, yet largely underutilizes the power of artificial intelligence to enable personalized recommendations system for social media platforms like WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, etc. With advancement inside the global of technology every hour and every day new features are delivered to the list.  In a manner, social platforms are merging into our actual existence, and to achieve personification and related safety, users can get any one safety factor from all 6 classes with this approach. This factor provides the basis for personification and the implementation of safety precautions. This research proposes recommendations for personification in social media applications. The proposed Modified Inception Resnet V4 Convolutional Neural Network (MInReCNN) outperforms embedded media persona analysis and classification through text, image, and video data. Using these prediction classes better decisions can be made in given social media domain