Technological breakthroughs and asset replacement

The authors analyze the optimal replacement of assets under continuous and discontinuous technological change. They investigate the variable lifetime of assets in an infinite-horizon replacement problem. Due to deterioration, the maintenance cost increases when the asset becomes older. Because of technological change, both maintenance and new capital costs decrease for a fixed asset age. The dynamics of the optimal lifetime is investigated analytically and numerically under technological change in the cases of one and several technological breakthroughs. It is shown that the breakthroughs cause irregularities (anticipation echoes) in the asset lifetime before the breakthrough time.asset replacement, technological change, optimal lifetime, anticipation echoes.

Investment, replacement and scrapping in a vintage capital model with embodied technological change

This paper analyzes and compares two alternative policies of determining the service life and replacement demand for vintage equipment under embodied technological change. The policies are the infinite-horizon replacement and the transitory replacement ending with scrapping. The corresponding vintage capital models are formulated in the dynamic optimization framework. These two approaches lead to different estimates of the duration of replacements and the impact of technological change on the equipment service life.vintage capital equipment; embodied technological change; service life; replacement; scrapping

Towards an integrated perspective on fleet asset management: engineering and governance considerations

The traditional engineering perspective on asset management concentrates on the operational performance the assets. This perspective aims at managing assets through their life-cycle, from technical specification, to acquisition, operation including maintenance, and disposal. However, the engineering perspective often takes for granted organizational-level factors. For example, a focus on performance at the asset level may lead to ignore performance measures at the business unit level. The governance perspective on asset management usually concentrates on organizational factors, and measures performance in financial terms. In doing so, the governance perspective tends to ignore the engineering considerations required for optimal asset performance. These two perspectives often take each other for granted. However experience demonstrates that an exclusive focus on one or the other may lead to sub-optimal performance. For example, the two perspectives have different time frames: engineering considers the long term asset life-cycle whereas the organizational time frame is based on a yearly financial calendar. Asset fleets provide a relevant and important context to investigate the interaction between engineering and governance views on asset management as fleets have distributed system characteristics. In this project we investigate how engineering and governance perspectives can be reconciled and integrated to enable optimal asset and organizational performance in the context of asset fleets

What Drives the Skill Premium: Technological Change or Demographic Variation?

This paper quantitatively examines the effects of two exogenous driving forces, investment-specific technological change (ISTC) and the demographic change known as “the baby boom and the baby bust,” on the evolution of the skill premium in the postwar U.S. economy. I develop an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with endogenous discrete schooling choice. The production technology features capital-skill complementarity as in Krusell et al. (2000). ISTC, through capital-skill complementarity, raises the relative demand for skilled labor, while demographic variation affects the skill premium through changing the age structure and hence relative supply of skilled labor. I find that demographic change is more important in shaping the skill premium before 1980. Since then, ISTC takes over to drive the dramatic increase in the skill premium.Skill Premium; Schooling Choice; Demographic and Technological Change; Capital-Skill Complementarity; Overlapping Generations

Discrete-continuous analysis of optimal equipment replacement

In Operations Research, the equipment replacement process is usually modeled in discrete time. The optimal replacement strategies are found from discrete (or integer) programming problems, well known for their analytic and computational complexity. An alternative approach is represented by continuous-time vintage capital models that explicitly involve the equipment lifetime and are described by nonlinear integral equations. Then the optimal replacement is determined via the optimal control of such equations. These two alternative techniques describe essentially the same controlled dynamic process. We introduce and analyze a model that unites both approaches. The obtained results allow us to explore such important effects in optimal asset replacement as the transition and long-term dynamics, clustering and splitting of replaced assets, and the impact of improving technology and discounting. In particular, we demonstrate that the cluster splitting is possible in our replacement model with given demand in the case of an increasinTheoretical findings are illustrated with numeric examples.vintage capital models, optimization, equipment lifetime, discrete-continuous models.

Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma

Notwithstanding the rosy short-term fiscal scenarios being advanced in Washington, the demographic transition presents the United States with a very serious fiscal crisis. In 30 years there will be twice the number of elderly, but only 15 percent more workers to help pay Social Security and Medicare benefits. A realistic reading of the government demographic projections suggests a two thirds increase in payroll tax rates over the next three to five decades. However, these forecasts ignore macroeconomic feedback effects. In particular, they ignore the possibility that the nation will have more capital per worker as the number of elderly wealth-holders rises relative to the number of young workers. More capital per worker would mean higher worker productivity, higher real wages, and the lower return to capital that worries Wall Street. It would also mean a bigger payroll tax base and a smaller rise in tax rates. On the other hand, a higher payroll tax will leave workers with less after-tax income out of which to save and, therefore, fewer retirement assets than would otherwise be the case. Thus capital deepening is not a foregone conclusion. This study develops a dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle simulation model to study these conflicting forces. The model is the first of its kind to admit realistic patterns of fertility and lifespan extension. It also features heterogeneity, within as well as across generations, and, thus, can be used to study both intra- and intergenerational equity. Unfortunately, our baseline demographic simulation, which assumes the continuation of current social security policy, shows deteriorating macroeconomic conditions that will exacerbate, rather than mitigate, our fiscal problems. Real wages per effective unit of labor fall 4 percent over the next 30 years and 10 percent over the century. For Wall Street, this bad news about real wages is good news about the real return on capital, which rises 100 basis points by 2030 and 300 basis points by 2100. The model's gradual capital shallowing reflects the concomitant major rise in tax rates. In 2030, payroll tax rates and average income-tax rates applied to wages are 77 and 9 percent higher, respectively, than in 2000. Together, these tax hikes raise

Trading Off Generations: Infinitely Lived Agent Versus OLG

The prevailing literature discusses intergenerational trade-offs in climate change predominantly in terms of the Ramsey equation relying on the infinitely lived agent model. We discuss these trade-offs in a continuous time OLG framework and relate our results to the infinitely lived agent setting. We identify three shortcomings of the latter: First, underlying normative assumptions about social preferences cannot be deduced unambiguously. Second, the distribution among generations living at the same time cannot be captured. Third, the optimal solution may not be implementable in overlapping generations market economies.climate change, discounting, infinitely lived agents, intergenerational equity, overlapping generations, time preference

Learning and excess volatility

We introduce adaptive learning behavior into a general equilibrium lifecycle economy with capital accumulation. Agents form forecasts of the rate of return to capital assets using least squares autoregressions on past data. We show that, in contrast to the perfect foresight dynamics, the dynamical system under learning possesses equilibria characterized by persistent excess volatility in returns to capital. We explore a quantitative case for these learning equilibria. We use an evolutionary search algorithm to calibrate a version of the system under learning and show that this system can generate data that matches some features of the time series data for U.S. stock returns and per capita consumption. We argue that this finding provides support for the hypothesis that the observed excess volatility of asset returns can by explained by changes in investor expectations against a background of relatively small changes in fundamental factors.Capital ; Stock - Prices

The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis

We analyze the optimal investment strategy of a monopolist which has subscribed a concession contract to provide a public utility, i.e. water service. We present a strategic model in which a monopolist chooses both the timing of the investment and the capacity. We focus not only on the value of the immediate investment, but rather on the value of the investment opportunity. We then extend the model to two interdependent projects, where investing in the first project provides the opportunity to acquire the benefits of the new investment by making a new outlay. We show that flexibility to defer an investment may generate, ceteris paribus, additional profits which may induce positive effects in terms of policy and consumers surplus.Irreversible investment, Flexibility to defer, Capacity expansion choice