Exact simulation pricing with Gamma processes and their extensions

Exact path simulation of the underlying state variable is of great practical importance in simulating prices of financial derivatives or their sensitivities when there are no analytical solutions for their pricing formulas. However, in general, the complex dependence structure inherent in most nontrivial stochastic volatility (SV) models makes exact simulation difficult. In this paper, we present a nontrivial SV model that parallels the notable Heston SV model in the sense of admitting exact path simulation as studied by Broadie and Kaya. The instantaneous volatility process of the proposed model is driven by a Gamma process. Extensions to the model including superposition of independent instantaneous volatility processes are studied. Numerical results show that the proposed model outperforms the Heston model and two other L\'evy driven SV models in terms of model fit to the real option data. The ability to exactly simulate some of the path-dependent derivative prices is emphasized. Moreover, this is the first instance where an infinite-activity volatility process can be applied exactly in such pricing contexts.Comment: Forthcoming The Journal of Computational Financ

Appendix to "Approximating perpetuities"

An algorithm for perfect simulation from the unique solution of the distributional fixed point equation $Y=_d UY + U(1-U)$ is constructed, where $Y$ and $U$ are independent and $U$ is uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$. This distribution comes up as a limit distribution in the probabilistic analysis of the Quickselect algorithm. Our simulation algorithm is based on coupling from the past with a multigamma coupler. It has four lines of code

A statistical view on exchanges in Quickselect

In this paper we study the number of key exchanges required by Hoare's FIND algorithm (also called Quickselect) when operating on a uniformly distributed random permutation and selecting an independent uniformly distributed rank. After normalization we give a limit theorem where the limit law is a perpetuity characterized by a recursive distributional equation. To make the limit theorem usable for statistical methods and statistical experiments we provide an explicit rate of convergence in the Kolmogorov--Smirnov metric, a numerical table of the limit law's distribution function and an algorithm for exact simulation from the limit distribution. We also investigate the limit law's density. This case study provides a program applicable to other cost measures, alternative models for the rank selected and more balanced choices of the pivot element such as median-of-$2t+1$ versions of Quickselect as well as further variations of the algorithm.Comment: Theorem 4.4 revised; accepted for publication in Analytic Algorithmics and Combinatorics (ANALCO14

Quantile clocks

Quantile clocks are defined as convolutions of subordinators $L$, with quantile functions of positive random variables. We show that quantile clocks can be chosen to be strictly increasing and continuous and discuss their practical modeling advantages as business activity times in models for asset prices. We show that the marginal distributions of a quantile clock, at each fixed time, equate with the marginal distribution of a single subordinator. Moreover, we show that there are many quantile clocks where one can specify $L$, such that their marginal distributions have a desired law in the class of generalized $s$-self decomposable distributions, and in particular the class of self-decomposable distributions. The development of these results involves elements of distribution theory for specific classes of infinitely divisible random variables and also decompositions of a gamma subordinator, that is of independent interest. As applications, we construct many price models that have continuous trajectories, exhibit volatility clustering and have marginal distributions that are equivalent to those of quite general exponential L\'{e}vy price models. In particular, we provide explicit details for continuous processes whose marginals equate with the popular VG, CGMY and NIG price models. We also show how to perfectly sample the marginal distributions of more general classes of convoluted subordinators when $L$ is in a sub-class of generalized gamma convolutions, which is relevant for pricing of European style options.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP752 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Exact Simulation of the Extrema of Stable Processes

We exhibit an exact simulation algorithm for the supremum of a stable process over a finite time interval using dominated coupling from the past (DCFTP). We establish a novel perpetuity equation for the supremum (via the representation of the concave majorants of L\'evy processes) and apply it to construct a Markov chain in the DCFTP algorithm. We prove that the number of steps taken backwards in time before the coalescence is detected is finite. We analyse numerically the performance of the algorithm (the code, written in Julia 1.0, is available on GitHub).Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures, Julia implementation of the exact simulation algorithm is in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/jorgeignaciogc/StableSupremum.j

The Double CFTP method

Abstract. We consider the problem of the exact simulation of random variables Z that satisfy the distributional identity Z L = V Y + (1 − V)Z, where V ∈ [0, 1] and Y are independent, and L = denotes equality in distribution. Equivalently, Z is the limit of a Markov chain driven by that map. We give an algorithm that can be automated under the condition that we have a source capable of generating independent copies of Y, and that V has a density that can be evaluated in a black box format. The method uses a doubling trick for inducing coalescence in coupling from the past. Applications include exact samplers for many Dirichlet means, some two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet means, and a host of other distributions related to occupation times of Bessel bridges that can be described by stochastic fixed point equations. Keywords and phrases. Random variate generation. Perpetuities. Coupling from the past. Random partitions. Stochastic recurrences. Stochastic fixed point equations. Distribution theory. Markov chain Monte Carlo. Simulation. Expected time analysis. Bessel bridge. Poisson-Dirichlet. Dirichlet means