SOM-based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks' Real Effects

In some cases, currency crises are followed by strong recessions (e.g., recent Asian and Argentinean crises), but in other cases they are not. This paper uses Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to search for meaningful associations between speculative attacks' real effects and 28 variables that characterize the economic, financial, legal, and socio-political structure of the country at the onset of the attack. SOM is a neural network-based generalization of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that provides an efficient non-linear projection of the multidimensional data space on a curved surface. This paper finds a strong association of speculative attacks' real effects with fundamentals and the banking sector structureexploratory data analysis, self-organizing maps, neural networks, speculative attacks' real effects

Occupational Fraud Detection Through Visualization

Occupational fraud affects many companies worldwide causing them economic loss and liability issues towards their customers and other involved entities. Detecting internal fraud in a company requires significant effort and, unfortunately cannot be entirely prevented. The internal auditors have to process a huge amount of data produced by diverse systems, which are in most cases in textual form, with little automated support. In this paper, we exploit the advantages of information visualization and present a system that aims to detect occupational fraud in systems which involve a pair of entities (e.g., an employee and a client) and periodic activity. The main visualization is based on a spiral system on which the events are drawn appropriately according to their time-stamp. Suspicious events are considered those which appear along the same radius or on close radii of the spiral. Before producing the visualization, the system ranks both involved entities according to the specifications of the internal auditor and generates a video file of the activity such that events with strong evidence of fraud appear first in the video. The system is also equipped with several different visualizations and mechanisms in order to meet the requirements of an internal fraud detection system

Visualization of database structures for information retrieval

This paper describes the Book House system, which is designed to support children's information retrieval in libraries as part of their education. It is a shareware program available on CD‐ROM or floppy disks, and comprises functionality for database searching as well as for classifying and storing book information in the database. The system concept is based on an understanding of children's domain structures and their capabilities for categorization of information needs in connection with their activities in schools, in school libraries or in public libraries. These structures are visualized in the interface by using metaphors and multimedia technology. Through the use of text, images and animation, the Book House encourages children ‐ even at a very early age ‐ to learn by doing in an enjoyable way, which plays on their previous experiences with computer games. Both words and pictures can be used for searching; this makes the system suitable for all age groups. Even children who have not yet learned to read properly can, by selecting pictures, search for and find those books they would like to have read aloud. Thus, at the very beginning of their school life, they can learn to search for books on their own. For the library community, such a system will provide an extended service which will increase the number of children's own searches and also improve the relevance, quality and utilization of the book collections in the libraries. A market research report on the need for an annual indexing service for books in the Book House format is in preparation by the Danish Library Centre A/S

High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.Comment: The previous version of this article included an error. This is a revised versio

Ensemble Committees for Stock Return Classification and Prediction

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a non-linear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Neukom Institute Computational Undergraduate Research prize - second plac

Social media analytics: a survey of techniques, tools and platforms

This paper is written for (social science) researchers seeking to analyze the wealth of social media now available. It presents a comprehensive review of software tools for social networking media, wikis, really simple syndication feeds, blogs, newsgroups, chat and news feeds. For completeness, it also includes introductions to social media scraping, storage, data cleaning and sentiment analysis. Although principally a review, the paper also provides a methodology and a critique of social media tools. Analyzing social media, in particular Twitter feeds for sentiment analysis, has become a major research and business activity due to the availability of web-based application programming interfaces (APIs) provided by Twitter, Facebook and News services. This has led to an ‘explosion’ of data services, software tools for scraping and analysis and social media analytics platforms. It is also a research area undergoing rapid change and evolution due to commercial pressures and the potential for using social media data for computational (social science) research. Using a simple taxonomy, this paper provides a review of leading software tools and how to use them to scrape, cleanse and analyze the spectrum of social media. In addition, it discussed the requirement of an experimental computational environment for social media research and presents as an illustration the system architecture of a social media (analytics) platform built by University College London. The principal contribution of this paper is to provide an overview (including code fragments) for scientists seeking to utilize social media scraping and analytics either in their research or business. The data retrieval techniques that are presented in this paper are valid at the time of writing this paper (June 2014), but they are subject to change since social media data scraping APIs are rapidly changing