Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Distributed situation awareness in dynamic systems: Theoretical development and application of an ergonomics methodology

The purpose of this paper is to propose foundations for a theory of situation awareness based on the analysis of interactions between agents (i.e., both human and non-human) in subsystems. This approach may help promote a better understanding of technology-mediated interaction in systems, as well as helping in the formulation of hypotheses and predictions concerning distributed situation awareness. It is proposed that agents within a system each hold their own situation awareness which may be very different from (although compatible with) other agents. It is argued that we should not always hope for, or indeed want, sharing of this awareness, as different system agents have different purposes. This view marks situation awareness as a 1 dynamic and collaborative process that binds agents together on tasks on a moment-by-moment basis. Implications of this viewpoint for development of a new theory of, and accompanying methodology for, distributed situation awareness are offered

Command-and-control (C2) theory : a challenge to control science

by Michael Athans

Implications of Service Cyberspace Component Commands for Army Cyberspace Operations

The first 7 years of U.S. Cyber Command operations are paved with milestones that mark the steady operationalization of modern cyberspace as the newest domain of military conflict as well as a realm of international power. The creation of the Cyber Mission Force and Joint Force Headquarters-Cyber are significant steps toward improving the timeliness and effectiveness of cyberspace operations that directly support combatant commands and the whole-of-government responses to cyberspace threats. It focuses on the central question: “What is the context in which different military services approach cyberspace component operations internally as well as with the Department of Defense?”https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1381/thumbnail.jp

Implication of FORCEnet on coalition forces

The coalition navies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States (AUSCANNZUKUS) are in a period of transformation. They are stepping out of the Industrial Age of warfare and into the Informational Age of warfare. Network Centric Warfare (NCW) is the emerging theory to accomplish this undertaking. NCW describes "the combination of strategies, emerging tactics, techniques, and procedures, and organizations that a fully or even partially networked force can employ to create a decisive war fighting advantage." 1 This theory is turned into a concept through Network Centric Operations (NCO) and implemented through the FORCEnet operational construct and architectural framework. The coalition navies are moving in a direction to develop and leverage information more effectively and efficiently. This will lead to an informational advantage that can be used as a combat multiplier to shape and control the environment, so as to dissuade, deter, and decisively defeat any enemy. This analysis was comprised of defining three TTCP AG-6 provided vignettes into ARENA model that captured Coalition ESG configurations at various FORCEnet levels. The results of the analysis demonstrated that enhanced FORCEnet capabilities such as FORCEnet Levels 2 and 4 would satisfy the capability gap for a needed network-centric ESG force that can effectively counter insurgency operations in Maritime warfare. Furthermore, the participating allied navies in the Coalition ESG should pursue acquisition strategies to upgrade their ship platforms in accordance with our recommendation which indicates that FORCEnet Level 2 is the best value.http://archive.org/details/implicationoffor109456926N

Research Naval Postgraduate School, v.12, no.3, October 2002

NPS Research is published by the Research and Sponsored Programs, Office of the Vice President and Dean of Research, in accordance with NAVSOP-35. Views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of the Navy.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

21st Century Simulation: Exploiting High Performance Computing and Data Analysis

This paper identifies, defines, and analyzes the limitations imposed on Modeling and Simulation by outmoded paradigms in computer utilization and data analysis. The authors then discuss two emerging capabilities to overcome these limitations: High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis. First, parallel computing, in supercomputers and Linux clusters, has proven effective by providing users an advantage in computing power. This has been characterized as a ten-year lead over the use of single-processor computers. Second, advanced data analysis techniques are both necessitated and enabled by this leap in computing power. JFCOM's JESPP project is one of the few simulation initiatives to effectively embrace these concepts. The challenges facing the defense analyst today have grown to include the need to consider operations among non-combatant populations, to focus on impacts to civilian infrastructure, to differentiate combatants from non-combatants, and to understand non-linear, asymmetric warfare. These requirements stretch both current computational techniques and data analysis methodologies. In this paper, documented examples and potential solutions will be advanced. The authors discuss the paths to successful implementation based on their experience. Reviewed technologies include parallel computing, cluster computing, grid computing, data logging, OpsResearch, database advances, data mining, evolutionary computing, genetic algorithms, and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses. The modeling and simulation community has significant potential to provide more opportunities for training and analysis. Simulations must include increasingly sophisticated environments, better emulations of foes, and more realistic civilian populations. Overcoming the implementation challenges will produce dramatically better insights, for trainees and analysts. High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis promise increased understanding of future vulnerabilities to help avoid unneeded mission failures and unacceptable personnel losses. The authors set forth road maps for rapid prototyping and adoption of advanced capabilities. They discuss the beneficial impact of embracing these technologies, as well as risk mitigation required to ensure success

Proceedings of the 2004 ONR Decision-Support Workshop Series: Interoperability

In August of 1998 the Collaborative Agent Design Research Center (CADRC) of the California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly), approached Dr. Phillip Abraham of the Office of Naval Research (ONR) with the proposal for an annual workshop focusing on emerging concepts in decision-support systems for military applications. The proposal was considered timely by the ONR Logistics Program Office for at least two reasons. First, rapid advances in information systems technology over the past decade had produced distributed collaborative computer-assistance capabilities with profound potential for providing meaningful support to military decision makers. Indeed, some systems based on these new capabilities such as the Integrated Marine Multi-Agent Command and Control System (IMMACCS) and the Integrated Computerized Deployment System (ICODES) had already reached the field-testing and final product stages, respectively. Second, over the past two decades the US Navy and Marine Corps had been increasingly challenged by missions demanding the rapid deployment of forces into hostile or devastate dterritories with minimum or non-existent indigenous support capabilities. Under these conditions Marine Corps forces had to rely mostly, if not entirely, on sea-based support and sustainment operations. Particularly today, operational strategies such as Operational Maneuver From The Sea (OMFTS) and Sea To Objective Maneuver (STOM) are very much in need of intelligent, near real-time and adaptive decision-support tools to assist military commanders and their staff under conditions of rapid change and overwhelming data loads. In the light of these developments the Logistics Program Office of ONR considered it timely to provide an annual forum for the interchange of ideas, needs and concepts that would address the decision-support requirements and opportunities in combined Navy and Marine Corps sea-based warfare and humanitarian relief operations. The first ONR Workshop was held April 20-22, 1999 at the Embassy Suites Hotel in San Luis Obispo, California. It focused on advances in technology with particular emphasis on an emerging family of powerful computer-based tools, and concluded that the most able members of this family of tools appear to be computer-based agents that are capable of communicating within a virtual environment of the real world. From 2001 onward the venue of the Workshop moved from the West Coast to Washington, and in 2003 the sponsorship was taken over by ONR’s Littoral Combat/Power Projection (FNC) Program Office (Program Manager: Mr. Barry Blumenthal). Themes and keynote speakers of past Workshops have included: 1999: ‘Collaborative Decision Making Tools’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); LtGen Paul Van Riper (USMC Ret.);Radm Leland Kollmorgen (USN Ret.); and, Dr. Gary Klein (KleinAssociates) 2000: ‘The Human-Computer Partnership in Decision-Support’ Dr. Ronald DeMarco (Associate Technical Director, ONR); Radm CharlesMunns; Col Robert Schmidle; and, Col Ray Cole (USMC Ret.) 2001: ‘Continuing the Revolution in Military Affairs’ Mr. Andrew Marshall (Director, Office of Net Assessment, OSD); and,Radm Jay M. Cohen (Chief of Naval Research, ONR) 2002: ‘Transformation ... ’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); and, Steve Cooper (CIO, Office ofHomeland Security) 2003: ‘Developing the New Infostructure’ Richard P. Lee (Assistant Deputy Under Secretary, OSD); and, MichaelO’Neil (Boeing) 2004: ‘Interoperability’ MajGen Bradley M. Lott (USMC), Deputy Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Donald Diggs, Director, C2 Policy, OASD (NII

IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES TO ALIGN U.S. AIR FORCE AND U.S. ARMY MULTI-DOMAIN OPERATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATED DETERRENCE: AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF DETERRENCE AND MULTI-DOMAIN OPERATIONS

The objective of this capstone is to identify readings that can suggest doctrinal changes to better align U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force concepts of multi-domain operations. Currently, there is no joint consensus on how to conceptualize multi-domain operations, nor how they should support the 2022 National Security Strategy. This capstone identifies readings related to two areas of potential alignment between U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force doctrine: Deterrence Theories, and Multi-Domain Operations. It also suggests designating service leads for long-range fires and command and control, and furthering development of common technological standards. Future research could study the readings identified in this capstone to refine and develop multi-domain operations doctrine.Captain, United States Air ForceApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

AEGIS: A MILITARY INNOVATION CASE STUDY

The threat of hypersonic missiles being employed against U.S. naval forces by adversaries like China and Russia has forced current civilian and naval leaders to reexamine fleet defense to a degree similar to efforts at the end of World War II. When confronted with the threat of kamikazes and early anti-ship cruise missiles, the Navy launched a series of programs to close the capabilities gap between adversary weapons and the lack of a credible defense. The Navy’s eventual solution, the AEGIS Weapon System, was a revolutionary synthesis of system engineering integration with novel fleet defense tactics that have served as the backbone of the Navy surface forces for over 40 years. Why did AEGIS succeed at innovating while other programs failed? This thesis will answer this question by analyzing the development of AEGIS, from program inception to the introduction of AEGIS ships in the fleet, through the four paradigms of military innovation studies. Examination of AEGIS through each paradigm found that intraservice competition and culture were instrumental in AEGIS's success, with significant implications for policymakers. This thesis concludes with recommendations on how to best orient the Navy's approach toward hypersonic missile defense in the future.Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited