Polyhedral Predictive Regions For Power System Applications

Despite substantial improvement in the development of forecasting approaches, conditional and dynamic uncertainty estimates ought to be accommodated in decision-making in power system operation and market, in order to yield either cost-optimal decisions in expectation, or decision with probabilistic guarantees. The representation of uncertainty serves as an interface between forecasting and decision-making problems, with different approaches handling various objects and their parameterization as input. Following substantial developments based on scenario-based stochastic methods, robust and chance-constrained optimization approaches have gained increasing attention. These often rely on polyhedra as a representation of the convex envelope of uncertainty. In the work, we aim to bridge the gap between the probabilistic forecasting literature and such optimization approaches by generating forecasts in the form of polyhedra with probabilistic guarantees. For that, we see polyhedra as parameterized objects under alternative definitions (under $L_1$ and $L_\infty$ norms), the parameters of which may be modelled and predicted. We additionally discuss assessing the predictive skill of such multivariate probabilistic forecasts. An application and related empirical investigation results allow us to verify probabilistic calibration and predictive skills of our polyhedra.Comment: 8 page

Convex Hulls of Random Walks in Higher Dimensions: A Large Deviation Study

The distribution of the hypervolume $V$ and surface $\partial V$ of convex hulls of (multiple) random walks in higher dimensions are determined numerically, especially containing probabilities far smaller than $P = 10^{-1000}$ to estimate large deviation properties. For arbitrary dimensions and large walk lengths $T$, we suggest a scaling behavior of the distribution with the length of the walk $T$ similar to the two-dimensional case, and behavior of the distributions in the tails. We underpin both with numerical data in $d=3$ and $d=4$ dimensions. Further, we confirm the analytically known means of those distributions and calculate their variances for large $T$.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, 3 table

Finding Convex Hulls Using Quickhull on the GPU

We present a convex hull algorithm that is accelerated on commodity graphics hardware. We analyze and identify the hurdles of writing a recursive divide and conquer algorithm on the GPU and divise a framework for representing this class of problems. Our framework transforms the recursive splitting step into a permutation step that is well-suited for graphics hardware. Our convex hull algorithm of choice is Quickhull. Our parallel Quickhull implementation (for both 2D and 3D cases) achieves an order of magnitude speedup over standard computational geometry libraries.Comment: 11 page