SOME REFLECTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GREEN GROWTH ILLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENT SPACE

Many economists and policy makers advocate a fundamental shift towards “green growth” as the new, qualitatively-different growth paradigm, based on enhanced material/resource/energy efficiency and drastic changes in the energy mix. “Green growth” may work well in creating new growth impulses with reduced environmental load and facilitating related technological and structural change. But can it also mitigate climate change at the required scale (i.e. significant, absolute and permanent decline of GHG emissions at global level) and pace? This paper argues that growth, technological, population-expansion and governance constraints as well as some key systemic issues cast a very long shadow on the “green growth” hopes. One should not deceive oneself into believing that such evolutionary (and often reductionist) approach will be sufficient to cope with the complexities of climate change. It may rather give much false hope and excuses to do nothing really fundamental that can bring about a U-turn of global GHG emissions. The proponents of a resource efficiency revolution and a drastic change in the energy mix need to scrutinize the historical evidence, in particular the arithmetic of economic and population growth. Furthermore, they need to realize that the required transformation goes beyond innovation and structural changes to include democratization of the economy and cultural change. Climate change calls into question the global equality of opportunity for prosperity (i.e. ecological justice and development space) and is thus a huge developmental challenge for the South and a question of life and death for some developing countries (who increasingly resist the framing of climate protection versus equity).

Efficient distribution of carbon emissions reduction targets at the city level: A case of Yangtze River Delta region

The Chinese central government has released detailed carbon emissions abatement targets at the provincial level, but provides no specific emissions reduction targets at the city level. Most provincial governments simply allocate carbon emissions reduction tasks to their cities based on the GDP of their cities. Allocation approaches, however, should emphasize the most effective distribution to reach overall targets that reflect actual reduction capacities of cities. This paper proposes an allocation method at the city level by combining a data envelop analysis method, an entropy weight method and a clustering analysis method using the Yangtze River Delta region as a case study. Results of our analysis indicate that cities with higher carbon emissions abatement potentials, financial abilities, a larger number of above-scaled industrial enterprises and higher GDP are better positioned to reduce carbon emissions and should be assigned proportionately higher reduction targets. The merits and policy implications of the proposed approach are discussed in comparison to simply using GDP to allocate emission reduction targets

Outsourced carbon mitigation efforts of Chinese cities from 2012 to 2017

Outsourced carbon mitigation between cities means that some cities benefit from the carbon mitigation efforts of other cities more than their own. This problem conceals the recognition of cities’ mitigation contributions. Here we quantify local and outsourced carbon mitigation levels from 2012 to 2017 and identified ‘outsourced mitigation beneficiaries’ relying on outsourced efforts more than their own among 309 Chinese cities by using a city-level input–output model. It found that the share of outsourced emissions rose from 78.6% to 81.9% during this period. In particular, 240 cities (77.7%) were outsourced mitigation beneficiaries, of which 65 were strong beneficiaries (their local carbon emissions still grew) and 175 cities were weak beneficiaries (with larger outsourced mitigation efforts than local mitigation efforts). Strong beneficiaries were often industrializing cities with more agriculture and light manufacturing, focusing on local economic growth. In contrast, weak beneficiaries were mainly at the downstream of supply chains with services and high-tech manufacturing, which have stronger connections with upstream heavy industry cities. The findings suggest the need for policies to manage outsourced mitigation of supply chains and encourage transformation, improving the fair acknowledgment of cities’ carbon mitigation efforts

Leveraging opportunity of low carbon transition by super-emitter cities in China

Chinese cities are core in the national carbon mitigation and largely affect global decarbonisation initiatives, yet disparities between cities challenge country-wide progress. Low-carbon transition should preferably lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets among cities. Inter-city supply chains that link the production and consumption of cities are a factor in shaping inequality and mitigation but less considered aggregately. Here, we modelled supply chains of 309 Chinese cities for 2012 to quantify carbon footprint inequality, as well as explored a leverage opportunity to achieve an inclusive low-carbon transition. We revealed significant carbon inequalities: the 10 richest cities in China have per capita carbon footprints comparable to the US level, while half of the Chinese cities sit below the global average. Inter-city supply chains in China, which are associated with 80% of carbon emissions, imply substantial carbon leakage risks and also contribute to socioeconomic disparities. However, the significant carbon inequality implies a leveraging opportunity that substantial mitigation can be achieved by 32 super-emitting cities. If the super-emitting cities adopt their differentiated mitigation pathway based on affluence, industrial structure, and role of supply chains, up to 1.4 Gt carbon quota can be created, raising 30% of the projected carbon quota to carbon peak. The additional carbon quota allows the average living standard of the other 60% of Chinese people to reach an upper-middle-income level, highlighting collaborative mechanism at the city level has a great potential to lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets

Outsourced carbon mitigation efforts of Chinese cities from 2012 to 2017

Outsourced carbon mitigation between cities means that some cities benefit from the carbon mitigation efforts of other cities more than their own. This problem conceals the recognition of cities’ mitigation contributions. Here we quantify local and outsourced carbon mitigation levels from 2012 to 2017 and identified ‘outsourced mitigation beneficiaries’ relying on outsourced efforts more than their own among 309 Chinese cities by using a city-level input–output model. It found that the share of outsourced emissions rose from 78.6% to 81.9% during this period. In particular, 240 cities (77.7%) were outsourced mitigation beneficiaries, of which 65 were strong beneficiaries (their local carbon emissions still grew) and 175 cities were weak beneficiaries (with larger outsourced mitigation efforts than local mitigation efforts). Strong beneficiaries were often industrializing cities with more agriculture and light manufacturing, focusing on local economic growth. In contrast, weak beneficiaries were mainly at the downstream of supply chains with services and high-tech manufacturing, which have stronger connections with upstream heavy industry cities. The findings suggest the need for policies to manage outsourced mitigation of supply chains and encourage transformation, improving the fair acknowledgment of cities’ carbon mitigation efforts

An integrated decision support tool for the prediction and evaluation of efficiency, environmental impact and total social cost of forestry projects in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol

For the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, governments of annex I countries need to develop strategies and policies for greenhouse gas reduction. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) offer CO2 emission reduction opportunities both home and abroad. Selection of effective forestry opportunities is a complex decision process based on multiple information concerning the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, the environmental impacts and the cost efficiency of potential scenarios. In this paper, a decision support framework to evaluate forestry scenarios for greenhouse gas emission reduction was presented and tested on five different scenarios (existing and new multifunctional forest in Flanders, Belgium, energy crop with short rotation poplar, energy crop with annually harvested Miscanthus, forest plantation in the subtropics, and conservation of tropical rainforest). The framework is organized as a serial connection of a carbon accounting module, an environmental module and an economic module. Modules include a combination of models and quantitative assessments procedures. In order to make scenarios comparable, the environmental and economic modules calculate their outputs on a functional unit basis of 1 ton CO2 emission reduction. The framework is universally applicable, straightforward, transparent and quantitative. Data requirements are medium, but applicability is fairly complex due to the interdisciplinary character of the tool. Further developments would require automated data flows between models and a user interface. As to the results of the scenario analysis, the only attractive possibility for sinks in Flanders is the establishment of new multifunctional forests. This even yields a net benefit because it replaces the generally loss-making agriculture and, in addition, yields other environmental and recreational benefits. The establishment of bioenergy plantations is a very efficient way of reducing CO2 as far as land occupation and environmental impacts are concerned. However, it also turns out to be a very expensive option. Plantation forestry in the tropics is advantageous when evaluated over longer periods of time. Conservation of tropical forest does not come into consideration as a CDM project, but is nevertheless economically attractive for Flanders since the cost per ton CO2 emission reduction is in the neighborhood of the world market price.CO2 emission reduction, carbon balance, Life Cycle Assessment, Land use impact, Cost benefit analysis

Leveraging opportunity of low carbon transition by super-emitter cities in China

Funding Information: The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (7224100119), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFE0208700 and 2022YFE0208500), and the Norwegian Research Council (287690/F20). We appreciate the suggestions from Prof. Edgar Hertwich of Norweign University of Science andTechnology. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Science China PressChinese cities are core in the national carbon mitigation and largely affect global decarbonisation initiatives, yet disparities between cities challenge country-wide progress. Low-carbon transition should preferably lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets among cities. Inter-city supply chains that link the production and consumption of cities are a factor in shaping inequality and mitigation but less considered aggregately. Here, we modelled supply chains of 309 Chinese cities for 2012 to quantify carbon footprint inequality, as well as explored a leverage opportunity to achieve an inclusive low-carbon transition. We revealed significant carbon inequalities: the 10 richest cities in China have per capita carbon footprints comparable to the US level, while half of the Chinese cities sit below the global average. Inter-city supply chains in China, which are associated with 80% of carbon emissions, imply substantial carbon leakage risks and also contribute to socioeconomic disparities. However, the significant carbon inequality implies a leveraging opportunity that substantial mitigation can be achieved by 32 super-emitting cities. If the super-emitting cities adopt their differentiated mitigation pathway based on affluence, industrial structure, and role of supply chains, up to 1.4 Gt carbon quota can be created, raising 30% of the projected carbon quota to carbon peak. The additional carbon quota allows the average living standard of the other 60% of Chinese people to reach an upper-middle-income level, highlighting collaborative mechanism at the city level has a great potential to lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets.Peer reviewe

WIATEC: A World Integrated Assessment Model of Global Trade Environment and Climate Change

This paper describes the structure of the World Integrated Assessment model of global Trade, Environmental, and Climate change (WIATEC).The model consists of a multi-regional multi-sectoral core CGE model linked to a climate model. The core CGE is based on an existing global trade and environment model called GTAP-E (Truong, 1999; Burniaux and Truong, 2002). A suite of different and interchangeable 'modules' are then built around this 'core' to enable the model to be able to handle a range of different policy issues such as CO2 emissions, abatement, trading, non-CO2 (CH4 and N2O) emissions, land use land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities, and changing technologies in the electricity generation sector. The approach which uses a core model structure with different additional modules built around this core structure allows the overall model to be flexible and can be adapted to a range of different policy issues. We illustrate the usefulness of this approach in a policy experiment which looks at the interaction between emissions trading scheme and the promotion of renewable energy targets in the European Union climate policy.Integrated Assessment Model, Technological Change, Climate Policy

Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Biofuels are being promoted as an important part of the global energy mix to meet the climate change challenge. The environmental costs of biofuels produced with current technologies at small scales have been studied, but little research has been done on the consequences of an aggressive global biofuels program with advanced technologies using cellulosic feedstocks. Here, with simulation modeling, we explore two scenarios for cellulosic biofuels production and find that both could contribute substantially to future global-scale energy needs, but with significant unintended environmental consequences. As the land supply is squeezed to make way for vast areas of biofuels crops, the global landscape is defined by either the clearing of large swathes of natural forest, or the intensification of agricultural operations worldwide. The greenhouse gas implications of land-use conversion differ substantially between the two scenarios, but in both, numerous biodiversity hotspots suffer from serious habitat loss. Cellulosic biofuels may yet serve as a crucial wedge in the solution to the climate change problem, but must be deployed with caution so as not to jeopardize biodiversity, compromise ecosystems services, or undermine climate policy.This study received funding from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is supported by a onsortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors