Deep Gaussian processes for regression using approximate expectation propagation

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models and as such are arguably more flexible, have a greater capacity to generalise, and provide better calibrated uncertainty estimates than alternative deep models. This paper develops a new approximate Bayesian learning scheme that enables DGPs to be applied to a range of medium to large scale regression problems for the first time. The new method uses an approximate Expectation Propagation procedure and a novel and efficient extension of the probabilistic backpropagation algorithm for learning. We evaluate the new method for non-linear regression on eleven real-world datasets, showing that it always outperforms GP regression and is almost always better than state-of-the-art deterministic and sampling-based approximate inference methods for Bayesian neural networks. As a by-product, this work provides a comprehensive analysis of six approximate Bayesian methods for training neural networks

Hierarchical Deep Counterfactual Regret Minimization

Imperfect Information Games (IIGs) offer robust models for scenarios where decision-makers face uncertainty or lack complete information. Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) has been one of the most successful family of algorithms for tackling IIGs. The integration of skill-based strategy learning with CFR could potentially enhance learning performance for complex IIGs. For this, a hierarchical strategy needs to be learnt, wherein low-level components represent specific skills and the high-level component manages the transition between skills. This hierarchical approach also enhances interpretability, helping humans pinpoint scenarios where the agent is struggling and intervene with targeted expertise. This paper introduces the first hierarchical version of Deep CFR (HDCFR), an innovative method that boosts learning efficiency in tasks involving extensively large state spaces and deep game trees. A notable advantage of HDCFR over previous research in this field is its ability to facilitate learning with predefined (human) expertise and foster the acquisition of transferable skills that can be applied to similar tasks. To achieve this, we initially construct our algorithm on a tabular setting, encompassing hierarchical CFR updating rules and a variance-reduced Monte-Carlo sampling extension, and offer its essential theoretical guarantees. Then, to adapt our algorithm for large-scale applications, we employ neural networks as function approximators and suggest deep learning objectives that coincide with those in the tabular setting while maintaining the theoretical outcomes