Grey Numbers in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis and Conflict Resolution

Definitions of grey numbers are adapted for incorporation into Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis and the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in order to capture uncertainty in decision making. The main objective is to design improved methods for dealing with decision problems under uncertainty, characterized by limited input data and uncertain preferences of decision makers. A literature review is carried out in order to understand the problems of representing uncertainty using grey numbers within two key decision making contexts: comparing alternative solutions within an multiple criteria decision analysis framework, and deciding upon meaningful courses of action by decision makers involved in a conflict. Then two methodologies that rely on grey numbers to represent uncertain information are provided, and relevant definitions, procedures, and solution concepts are presented

Great Lakes Regional Water Conflict Analyses

This research proposes a holistic framework to help understand and mitigate the interrelated and successive conflicts that occur over water resources in the Great Lakes and the rivers flowing into them. Local Canadian governments, in addition to many public and private companies, are heavy water consumers, who extract vast amounts of water from water sources such as the Great Lakes. Moreover, temperature changes, and increasing storm water in the past few decades, added to pollutants such as phosphorous pouring into the Great Lakes from various origins, place more pressure on these valuable, yet vulnerable water sources. Various NGOs and the states and provinces surrounding the Great Lakes strive to protect the Great Lakes from excessive water extractions and pollutants. The different priorities of the aforementioned stakeholders have become sources of various disputes. Traditional conflict resolution publications tend to focus on investigating each of the conflicts independently from the other disputes existing among the stakeholders. However, a holistic view is required to understand the conflicts, acknowledging the previous disputes, which have transpired in the past when analyzing each conflict. This broader perspective approach presents a better ability to study potential future conflicts, since it enhances the predictability of the scenarios, which might occur later during other disputes. In the first step, after identifying the relevant stakeholders associated with the Great Lakes, conflicts among them are analyzed using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) approach. However, the input for each conflict's GMCR model is highly influenced by the previous conflicts' outputs. Modeling and analyzing this influence are accomplished through intricately assessing the results of the previous conflicts' GMCRs and linking them to the gathered information on the current conflict of interest. In the next step, major external variables that affect the current steady-state system are investigated. Political happenings, economic factors, social trends, technological advances, legal changes, and environmental crises are some of the key variables that are investigated. Then, several scenarios based on this external analysis of the system are proposed and utilized for enhancing future decision-making. The aforementioned steps are showcased using three case studies of disputes among the Great Lakes stakeholders. The main studied case is the Lake Erie pollution conflict which is investigated in two instances of 1970s and 2010s. It is concluded in this thesis that if the 1970s dispute had been investigated using the causal loops, GMCR, external analysis, and scenario analysis, the stakeholders, especially local authorities in the Lake Erie watershed, would have been able to make better decisions in the more recent dispute in 2010s. This research with the current holistic framework should also enhance understanding of the interrelated conflicts over essential topics such as financial, health, and environmental concerns caused by pollution (specifically algae blooms) in the Great Lakes and the rivers flowing into them. The developed understanding, in addition to the results of the conducted external analysis, should help decisionmakers, especially water utility providers, who carry a huge responsibility towards millions of water users, predict and prevent potential water disputes with other stakeholders. Although the case studies in this research focus on the Great Lakes and their stakeholders, the proposed framework is applicable in other contexts as well

Analyzing the Cauvery River Dispute Using a Systems of Systems Approach

The Cauvery River conflict in southern India is a water-sharing dispute that has persisted for over a century. Over the last thirty years, the conflict has been exacerbated due to climate change, and population explosion. Addressing this long-standing conflict requires a comprehensive approach. This thesis employs a systems-of-systems (SoS) methodology to analyze the hydrological, socio-economic, and governance systems of the Cauvery River basin, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of this complex conflict. As the provinces of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu dominate the basin, their roles as primary decision-makers are central to resolving the dispute. The thesis integrates systems-of-systems analysis, graph theory, document analysis, and hydrological modeling. Valuable insights are drawn from government reports and legal contexts, unveiling the historical priorities and biases of stakeholders. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) method is used to create a conceptual hydrological model of the Cauvery River basin. Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis is employed to understand the complex socio-economic interactions in the basin and generate consistent scenarios. These consistent scenarios are useful in identifying descriptors or systems that are most influential in possibly resolving this conflict. Finally, a Decision Support System (DSS) called Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is developed that uses the outputs of CIB and demonstrates how a resolution may be achieved. WEAP analysis provided the measure of unmet demand in the Cauvery River basin, and how it affects agricultural productivity. CIB analysis yielded many consistent scenarios, however, after further analysis, a few systems emerged that were more influential in the system than the others. Managing water demand in Karnataka and managing water supply in Tamil Nadu were among the most active descriptors in the analysis. Increasing governmental effectiveness, and reduction of corruption were the other important descriptors from the CIB analysis. GMCR proposes resolutions based on the decision-maker's options and preferences. Cooperative efforts and improved governmental effectiveness emerge as compelling solutions. The analysis identifies unmet basin demands critical for decision-making. The research emphasizes the importance of communication and governance improvements, highlighting the potential for a rapid and amicable resolution between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The study underscores the effectiveness of systems-of-systems methodology in analyzing intricate issues. Future work could involve participatory approaches for judgment score calculations and expert elicitation to enhance research outcomes. As climate change impacts intensify, such methodologies become increasingly vital for crafting sustainable solutions to global challenges. In conclusion, this research showcases the significance of systems-of-systems analysis for understanding and resolving complex problems. The proposed standard operating procedures offer a valuable framework for researchers addressing intricate issues. As the urgency of climate change grows, the utilization of such methodologies becomes paramount for devising effective and sustainable global solutions

Preference Uncertainty and Trust in Decision Making

A fuzzy approach for handling uncertain preferences is developed within the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and new advances in trust modeling and assessment are put forward for permitting decision makers (DMs) to decide with whom to cooperate and trust in order to move from a potential resolution to a more preferred one that is not attainable on an individual basis. The applicability and the usefulness of the fuzzy preference and trust research for giving an enhanced strategic understanding about a dispute and its possible resolution are demonstrated by employing a realworld environmental conflict as well as two generic games that represent a wide range of real life encounters dealing with trust and cooperation dilemmas. The introduction of the uncertain preference representation extends the applicability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to handle conflicts with missing or incomplete preference information. Assessing the presence of trust will help to compensate for the missing information and bridge the gap between a desired outcome and a feared betrayal. These advances in the areas of uncertain preferences and trust have potential applications in engineering decision making, electronic commerce, multiagent systems, international trade and many other areas where conflict is present. In order to model a conflict, it is assumed that the decision makers, options, and the preferences of the decision makers over possible states are known. However, it is often the case that the preferences are not known for certain. This could be due to lack of information, impreciseness, or misinformation intentionally supplied by a competitor. Fuzzy logic is applied to handle this type of information. In particular, it allows a decision maker to express preferences using linguistic terms rather than exact values. It also makes use of data intervals rather than crisp values which could accommodate minor shifts in values without drastically changing the overall results. The four solution concepts of Nash, general metarationality, symmetric metarationality, and sequential stability for determining stability and potential resolutions to a conflict, are extended to accommodate the new fuzzy preference representation. The newly proposed solution concepts are designed to work for two and more than two decision maker cases. Hypothetical and real life conflicts are used to demonstrate the applicability of this newly proposed procedure. Upon reaching a conflict resolution, it might be in the best interests of some of the decision makers to cooperate and form a coalition to move from the current resolution to a better one that is not achievable on an individual basis. This may require moving to an intermediate state or states which may be less preferred by some of the coalition members while being more preferred by others compared to the original or the final state. When the move is irreversible, which is the case in most real life situations, this requires the existence of a minimum level of trust to remove any fears of betrayal. The development of trust modeling and assessment techniques, allows decision makers to decide with whom to cooperate and trust. Illustrative examples are developed to show how this modeling works in practice. The new theoretical developments presented in this research enhance the applicability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. The proposed trust modeling allows a reasonable way of analyzing and predicting the formation of coalitions in conflict analysis and cooperative game theory. It also opens doors for further research and developments in trust modeling in areas such as electronic commerce and multiagent systems

How does regulation affect innovation and technology change in the water sector in England and Wales?

This thesis examines the role of regulation in technological change in the water sector in England and Wales. Based on a combination of Social-Ecological Systems (SES) theory and the Multi-Level Perspective on technological transitions a Comparative Information-Graded Approach (CIGA) is developed in Part 1. As part of the CIGA, a series of tools is used for characterizing and evaluating the relationship between regulation and technology. In Part 2, the CIGA is applied to characterize the relationship between regulation and water innovation in England and Wales based on official publications, Environment Agency data, and interviews. In particular, 7 mechanisms are identified by which regulation affects innovation and 5 issues of trust negatively interact with innovation. As trust is established through these mechanisms, opportunities for innovation are at times sacrificed. Part 3 develops and analyses a set of models based on findings in Part 2. Dynamical systems and fictitious play analysis of a trustee game model of regulation exhibits cyclicality providing an explanation for observed cycles which create an inconsistent drive for innovation. Trustee and coordination models are evaluated in Chapter 7 highlighting how most tools struggle with the issue of technological lock-in. Chapter 8 develops a model of two innovators and a public good water technology over time, showing the role foresight plays in this context as well as the disincentive to develop it. Taken together, the CIGA characterization and modelling work provide a series of recommendations and insights into how the system of regulation affects technology change.Open Acces

The Political Ecology of Food Insecurity in Smallholder Coffee Cooperatives in Northern Nicaragua

Food insecurity in smallholder coffee growing communities is recognized as a problem "deserving of a response that reflects its reach" (Caswell 2012, 1). Subject to structural factors including unstable coffee prices, extreme weather shocks, food price swings, smallholder coffee farming households must also access sufficient food and healthy diets amidst an historical trajectory that has incentivized homogenization of available land to coffee cultivation, and restriction of food production, leaving them even more vulnerable to seasonal hunger and chronic malnutrition. Although the relationship between coffee and food insecurity is recognized, its multiscalar dynamics have not been well understood. In this study I investigate and outline the "chain of explanation" (Robbins 2012, 88) of why food insecurity is so persistent in smallholder coffee growing communities. I explore the manifestations of seasonal and chronic hunger, as well as food resilience, which play out in eight first-level cooperatives that are participants in the Youth Leadership and Food Sovereignty Project executed by the cooperative organization the UCA San Ramón, in the department of Matagalpa in northern Nicaragua. Using a combined framework of political ecology, agroecology, and food security and sovereignty, I focus especially on the relationships that contribute to the phenomenon of hunger and insecurity in the eight cooperatives, identifying factors besides overdependence on coffee production on income that contribute to the phenomenon as it manifests in each of the eight cooperatives. My major findings agree with the established understanding that economic dependence on one cash crop (be it coffee or basic grains) leaves farming households unable to provide for themselves during the entire year. I find that more balanced dependence on two or more cash crops is related to longer periods of household provisioning. I also find that finance cycles that farmers must use to purchase seed and food exacerbate the situation. Other factors include the loss of knowledge of seed selection and saving as well as storage infrastructure, loss of healthy food consumption cultures, lack of access to markets for excess production, lack of access to transport and communication infrastructure, and lack of access to water for irrigation and consumption. However, structural factors including a persistent Green Revolution culture, international commodities markets, and contradictory interventions by the state and the coffee industry itself, lead to the conclusion that any set of strategies aiming to relieve seasonal hunger must move beyond price and beyond farm-level interventions to include the participation of actors at all scales

Sustainable Development of Real Estate

Research, theoretical and practical tasks of sustainable real estate development process are revised in detail in this monograph; particular examples are presented as well. The concept of modern real estate development model and a developer is discussed, peculiarities of the development of built environment and real estate objects are analyzed, as well as assessment methods, models and management of real estate and investments in order to increase the object value. Theoretical and practical analyses, presented in the monograph, prove that intelligent and augmented reality technologies allow business managers to reach higher results in work quality, organize a creative team of developers, which shall present more qualitative products for the society. The edition presents knowledge on economic, legal, technological, technical, organizational, social, cultural, ethical, psychological and environmental, as well as its management aspects, which are important for the development of real estate: publicly admitted sustainable development principles, urban development and aesthetic values, territory planning, participation of society and heritage protection. It is admitted that economical crises are inevitable, and the provided methods shall help to decrease possible loss. References to the most modern world scientific literature sources are presented in the monograph. The monograph is prepared for the researchers, MSc and PhD students of construction economics and real estate development. The book may be useful for other researchers, MSc and PhD students of economics, management and other specialities, as well as business specialist of real estate business. The publication of monograph was funded by European Social Fund according to project No. VP1-2.2-ŠMM-07-K-02-060 Development and Implementation of Joint Master’s Study Programme “Sustainable Development of the Built Environment”