A Reexamination of the Effect of Rapid Military Spending on Inflation

The hypothesis that rapid defense buildups contribute to inflation recently has been rejected by Donald F. Vitaliano. In this paper, it is argued that this result is misleading, given that it is obtained under the implausible assumption of constancy of the expected real rate of interest. The hypothesis is reexamined using a well-known measure of the expected inflation rate, and it is found that growth of defense spending has a statistically significant positive effect on the rate of price inflation

Probability Density of the Multipole Vectors for a Gaussian Cosmic Microwave Background

We review Maxwell's multipole vectors, and elucidate some of their mathematical properties, with emphasis on the application of this tool to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). In particular, for a completely random function on the sphere (corresponding to the statistically isotropic Gaussian model of the CMB), we derive the full probability density function of the multipole vectors. This function is used to analyze the internal configurations of the third-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe quadrupole and octopole, and we show the observations are consistent with the Gaussian prediction. A particular aspect is the planarity of the octopole, which we find not to be anomalous.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, MNRAS styl

Total Factor Productivity and the Efficiency of Rice Farms in Bangladesh: a Farm Level Panel Data Comparison of the Pre- and Post-Market Reform Period

The market reform policy in agriculture and the trade liberalization during the early 1990s has led to structural changes in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. The question of whether market reform policies in Bangladesh facilitated rice production is examined in this paper. This paper uses stochastic frontier production function to measure total factor productivity (TFP), technical change, and technical efficiency change covering the period of pre-market reform (1987) and post-market reform (2000 and 2004). To fulfill the objective, the study used panel data of 73 same farm households from a field survey of 1987–1988, 1999-2000 and 2003-04. It is evident from the study results that over time period (1987-2004), the TFP increased (31.76%) only due to upward shift in the technology. Technological change increased 59.99% in post reform period. However, although TFP increased substantial inefficiencies remain in Bangladesh rice sector. Technical efficiency change (-34.46%) developed negatively over the years of study at farm level. Market reform policy has negative impact on technical efficiency change but positive in technical change and TFP change although all are declining over the time period. Therefore, government policies need for further reform of domestic market and trade policies focusing on institutional changes, tariff and nontariff barriers in order to develop a competitive environment in rice sector.Farm Management,

High frequency market microstructure noise estimates and liquidity measures

Using recent advances in the econometrics literature, we disentangle from high frequency observations on the transaction prices of a large sample of NYSE stocks a fundamental component and a microstructure noise component. We then relate these statistical measurements of market microstructure noise to observable characteristics of the underlying stocks and, in particular, to different financial measures of their liquidity. We find that more liquid stocks based on financial characteristics have lower noise and noise-to-signal ratio measured from their high frequency returns. We then examine whether there exists a common, market-wide, factor in high frequency stock-level measurements of noise, and whether that factor is priced in asset returns.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS200 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Further evidence of the absence of Replica Symmetry Breaking in Random Bond Potts Models

In this short note, we present supporting evidence for the replica symmetric approach to the random bond q-state Potts models. The evidence is statistically strong enough to reject the applicability of the Parisi replica symmetry breaking scheme to this class of models. The test we use is a generalization of one formerly proposed by Dotsenko et al. and consists in measuring scaling laws of disordered-averaged moments of the spin-spin correlation functions. Numerical results, obtained via Monte Carlo simulations for several values of q, are shown to be in fair agreement with the replica symmetric values computed by using perturbative CFT for the second and third moments of the q=3 model. RSB effects, which should increase in strength with moment, are unobserved.Comment: 7 pages, some minor modifications (mainly misprints). To Appear in Europhysics Letter