Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases and their Collective Outcome

This work discusses the boom and bust dynamics which are a common feature of a large range of different industries. especially but not only new born ones. The common managerial behavior underpinning such dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period ultimately yielding excess capacity turning the boom into bust. This paper examines the underlying cognitive and behavioral factors responsible for strategic decisions driving boom and busts, nested in the interaction between cognitive biases and capacity adjustment delay, and together tries to identify some tentative heuristics which tend to mitigate them. At the same time, we shall conjecturally conclude, there might be a positive collective side to boom and bust behavio r fostering accumulation of knowledge and physical infrastructure, especially regarding new technological paradigms.Boom and bust; Overconfidence; Capacity adjustment; Adaptive behavior

A board game simulator for promoting system thinking for sustainable pastoralism among Maasai in Southern Kenya

A culturally-anchored board game simulator named ERAMAT! was created in cooperation with faculty members and members of the Maasai community and then piloted with US students and members of Maasai communities in southern Kenya during the summer of 2012. The game provides an alternative to a computer-based simulator, and hence provides a culturally credible simulation of the system dynamics associated with an accelerating boom/bust cycle of drought and hunger in the region. Factors driving the phenomena include greatly increased population densities, pastoralist cultural values, evolving pastoral practices, the ebb and flow of the semi-arid environment in which Maasai pastoralists live, and political and ecological pressures. The game encourages deeper understanding of these dynamics for pastoralists and non-pastoralists alike, and can generate conversations leading to insights on effective strategies for reducing the impact of the inevitable periods of low rainfall. This thesis reports on the underlying dynamics, the game design, and the results of the pilot. ERAMAT’s rules, symbols and language attuned to Maasai core values and pastoral praxis allowed players to engage in conversations about past experiences and outcomes, as well as explore alternative strategies for livestock and livelihood survival

Would Re-Criminalizing U.S. Gambling Pump-Prime the Economy and Could U.S. Gambling Facilities Be Transformed into Educational and High-Tech Facilities?: Will the Legal Discovery of Gambling Companies' Secrets Confirm Research Issues?

Economists and sociologists noted that the economic justifications for decriminalized gambling such as claims of new jobs, public revenues, and business development were the same types of arguments that Lincoln decried as being utilized to justify slavery in the 1800s, and which could still be utilized to justify decriminalizing illegal drugs in the present era. ... Thereafter, as pro-gambling interests returned to Nebraska, they were repeatedly rebuffed by the academic community, which was exemplified in one instance by 40 economists publicly rejecting new gambling proposals that would "cannibalize" the consumer economy. ... To conceptualize the socio-economic impacts of decriminalized gambling, it is beneficial to illustrate or visualize the gambling industry's identified "feeder markets" for a particular gambling facility, such as a casino. ... The secondary "feeder market" is typically a 100-mile radius around the casino and can include a quasi-tourist market -- although a gambling tourist should not be defined as a pre-existing tourist, but a new tourist from out-of-state who would not otherwise cross the state line if not for the gambling facility. ... If pro-gambling interests can focus the geographic scope of any study to within a mile or a few miles of the gambling activity, such as a casino, the limited scope generally influences the results to reflect favorably on economic and crime statistics. ... Contradicted and embarrassed by their own "feeder market" analyses, after the mid-1990s it became increasingly difficult to find gambling interests that publicly identified their feeder markets. ...published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewe

Between the Information Economy and Student Recruitment: Present Conjuncture and Future Prospects

In university programs and curricula, in general we react to the need to meet market needs. We respond to market stimulus, or at least try to do so. Consider now an inverted view. Consider our data and perspectives in university programs as reflecting and indeed presaging economic trends. In this article I pursue this line of thinking. I show how various past events fit very well into this new view. I provide explanation for why some technology trends happened as they did, and why some current developments are important now.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure

Title IX: Boom or Bust?

Athletics has been significantly impacted by Title IX through an increase the number of female athletes, the number of teams available, and indirectly, the development of women\u27s professional leagues. However, women in leadership positions in athletics have declined significantly since Title IX was signed into law. A concern about the discontinuation of some men\u27s non-revenue producing sports influenced the Department of Education to form the Commission on Opportunities in Athletics to review Title IX. The process and findings of the Commission are discussed, as well as the possible impact of the Commission\u27s recommendations

We Must Do Better: It's Time to Make Alberta Poverty-Free

This report, authored by Jim Gurnett (in partnership with the ESPC, Public Interest Alberta, and the Bissell Centre), is a follow up to the We Can Do Better report released in 2009. We Must do Better overviews: the results of 5 poverty forums held across the province in 2009;recent statistics on poverty and unemployment in Alberta; and,potential public policy and program options that would help to reduce or eliminate poverty

All-Star or benchwarmer? relative age, cohort size and career success in the NHL

We analyze the performance outcomes of National Hockey League (NHL) players over 18 seasons (1990-1991 to 2007-2008) as a function of the demographic conditions into which they were born. We have three main findings. First, larger birth cohorts substantially affect careers. A player born into a large birth cohort can expect an earnings loss of roughly 18 percent over the course of an average career as compared to a small birth cohort counterpart. The loss in earnings is driven chiefly by supply-side factors in the form of excess cohort competition and not quality differences since the performance of players (as measured by point totals for non-goalies) is actually significantly greater for players born into large birth cohorts. Performance-adjusted wage losses for those born in large birth cohorts are therefore greater than the raw estimates would suggest. Second, career effects differ by relative age. Those born in early calendar months (January to April) are more likely to make it into the NHL, but display significantly lower performance across all birth cohorts than later calendar births. In short, those in the top echelon of NHL achievement are drawn from fatter cohorts and later relative age categories, consistent with the need to be of greater relative talent in order to overcome significant early barriers (biases) in achievement. We find league expansions increase entry level salaries including the salaries of those born into larger birth cohorts, but they do not affect salaries of older players. Finally we find that the 2004-05 lockout appears to have muted the differentials in pay for large birth cohort players relative to their smaller birth cohort counterparts

A Report on the Economic Competitiveness of the District of North Vancouver

The District of North Vancouver entered into a process of data collection, analysis and public consultation to develop an understanding of the economic competitiveness of the District. This report addresses the importance of industrial clusters in regional economies