9 research outputs found
Analyzing and Developing Technique for Mining Very Large Databases to Support Knowledge Exploration
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THE JOINT COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS AS A TOOL TO AVOID LIQUIDITIES IN THE CURRENT CRISIS CONTEXT
The main joint commercial operations are counterpart, re-export and switch operations. Regardless of the evolution of barter, these arrangements may be made at the firm level, as well as at the governmental one. Delivery in counterpart has extended relatively a lot in the contemporary international trade and it implies the elimination or the reduction of the traditional paying tools and its replacement with the exchange of goods and services normally sustained by financial deals. The counterpart operations are mainly based on the oldest form of trade â the barter (exchanging goods for goods) which precedes the use of money. The barter as an arrangement between Governments of different countries has some specific features such as: the high value level of the occasional barter exchanges, the long-term convention, an agreement regarding different safeguarding stipulations.clearing agreement; buy-back; switch; off-sets; compensation; barter
Efficient Decision Support Systems
This series is directed to diverse managerial professionals who are leading the transformation of individual domains by using expert information and domain knowledge to drive decision support systems (DSSs). The series offers a broad range of subjects addressed in specific areas such as health care, business management, banking, agriculture, environmental improvement, natural resource and spatial management, aviation administration, and hybrid applications of information technology aimed to interdisciplinary issues. This book series is composed of three volumes: Volume 1 consists of general concepts and methodology of DSSs; Volume 2 consists of applications of DSSs in the biomedical domain; Volume 3 consists of hybrid applications of DSSs in multidisciplinary domains. The book is shaped decision support strategies in the new infrastructure that assists the readers in full use of the creative technology to manipulate input data and to transform information into useful decisions for decision makers
Rethinking construction cost overruns: an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation
The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to
meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an
acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance
indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is
undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information
in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely
overrun their estimates.
Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error
in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play
and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as
tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project
have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their
measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and
intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors
in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore
largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded.
The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on
construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help
in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project.
The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of
overruns â referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists.
Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which
cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of
overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term âcost overrunâ
itself.
The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two
industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and
ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost
models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation
predictions were within Âą10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models
will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a
benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation
of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios.
The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction âcost
overrunsâ, now proposed to be more appropriately known as âcost growthâ based
on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The
second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost
estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and
ensemble modelling
Winona Daily News
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