Adaptive Survival Trials

Mid-study design modifications are becoming increasingly accepted in confirmatory clinical trials, so long as appropriate methods are applied such that error rates are controlled. It is therefore unfortunate that the important case of time-to-event endpoints is not easily handled by the standard theory. We analyze current methods that allow design modifications to be based on the full interim data, i.e., not only the observed event times but also secondary endpoint and safety data from patients who are yet to have an event. We show that the final test statistic may ignore a substantial subset of the observed event times. Since it is the data corresponding to the earliest recruited patients that is ignored, this neglect becomes egregious when there is specific interest in learning about long-term survival. An alternative test incorporating all event times is proposed, where a conservative assumption is made in order to guarantee type I error control. We examine the properties of our proposed approach using the example of a clinical trial comparing two cancer therapies.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

Locally Adaptive Function Estimation for Binary Regression Models

In this paper we present a nonparametric Bayesian approach for fitting unsmooth or highly oscillating functions in regression models with binary responses. The approach extends previous work by Lang et al. (2002) for Gaussian responses. Nonlinear functions are modelled by first or second order random walk priors with locally varying variances or smoothing parameters. Estimation is fully Bayesian and uses latent utility representations of binary regression models for efficient block sampling from the full conditionals of nonlinear functions

Integrated context-aware and cloud-based adaptive home screens for android phones

This is the post-print version of this Article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2011 Springer VerlagThe home screen in Android phones is a highly customizable user interface where the users can add and remove widgets and icons for launching applications. This customization is currently done on the mobile device itself and will only create static content. Our work takes the concept of Android home screen [3] one step further and adds flexibility to the user interface by making it context-aware and integrated with the cloud. Overall results indicated that the users have a strong positive bias towards the application and that the adaptation helped them to tailor the device to their needs by using the different context aware mechanisms

Generalized structured additive regression based on Bayesian P-splines

Generalized additive models (GAM) for modelling nonlinear effects of continuous covariates are now well established tools for the applied statistician. In this paper we develop Bayesian GAM's and extensions to generalized structured additive regression based on one or two dimensional P-splines as the main building block. The approach extends previous work by Lang und Brezger (2003) for Gaussian responses. Inference relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques, and is either based on iteratively weighted least squares (IWLS) proposals or on latent utility representations of (multi)categorical regression models. Our approach covers the most common univariate response distributions, e.g. the Binomial, Poisson or Gamma distribution, as well as multicategorical responses. For the first time, we present Bayesian semiparametric inference for the widely used multinomial logit models. As we will demonstrate through two applications on the forest health status of trees and a space-time analysis of health insurance data, the approach allows realistic modelling of complex problems. We consider the enormous flexibility and extendability of our approach as a main advantage of Bayesian inference based on MCMC techniques compared to more traditional approaches. Software for the methodology presented in the paper is provided within the public domain package BayesX

Every Cloud Has a Push Data Lining: Incorporating Cloud Services in a Context-Aware Application

We investigated context-awareness by utilising multiple sources of context in a mobile device setting. In our experiment we developed a system consisting of a mobile client, running on the Android platform, integrated with a cloud-based service. These components were integrated using pushmessaging technology.One of the key featureswas the automatic adaptation of smartphones in accordance with implicit user needs. The novelty of our approach consists in the use of multiple sources of context input to the system, which included the use of calendar data and web based user configuration tool, as well as that of an external, cloud-based, configuration file storing user interface preferences which, pushed at log-on time irrespective of access device, frees the user from having to manually configure its interface.The systemwas evaluated via two rounds of user evaluations (n = 50 users), the feedback of which was generally positive and demonstrated the viability of using cloud-based services to provide an enhanced context-aware user experience

Time-varying return predictability in the Chinese stock market

China's stock market is the largest emerging market all over the world. It is widely accepted that the Chinese stock market is far from efficiency and it possesses possible linear and nonlinear dependence. We study the predictability of returns in the Chinese stock market by employing the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test and the generalized spectral test. We find that the return predictability vary over time and significant return predictability is observed around market turmoils. Our findings are consistent with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis and have practical implications for market participants.Comment: 11 Latex pages including 2 figures and 1 tabl