The Effect of Change in GDP on FDI in the Saudi Oil Sector Using the Adhocks Model of the Lagged External Variables, for Period, 1994-2017 an Econometrics Study

تظهر الأهمية الكبيرة لاستقطاب الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر بالنسبة للقطاع النفطي السعودي كغيرها من دول العالم التي تعد الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر أحد الروافد الهامة والمكملة للاستثمار المحلي, كما إن الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر لم يعد يتعلق فقط بانتقال رأس المال بل أصبح أحد المصادر الضرورية لنقل المعرفة في مجال الإدارة الحديثة ونقل التقنية المتقدمة وتدريب وتطوير الكوادر الفنية المحلية وخلق المزيد من فرص العمل للمواطنين. الا ان هناك  انخفاض في درجة انفتاح البيئة التشريعية الجاذبة للاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر من ناحية الشفافية , بالرغم مما متوفر من تشريعات قانونية وإدارية لدى السعودية, اذ أن حجم الاستثمار الأجنبي المتدفق الى القطاع النفطي السعودي شهد تذبذب وعدم استقرار معدلات تموه السنوي لا سباب عدة, فضلا عن   ان  نسب التغير في الناتج المحلي الاجمالي خلال المدة 1990-2000 كانت متصاعدة الا في بعض السنوات نتيجة لازمة الخليج الاولى وحرمان العراق من المورد النفطي وزيادة انتاج السعودية لتعويض النقص الحاصل في السوق النفطية وهكذا كانت الزيادة بعد حرب الخليج الثانية في عام 2003 اذ ازداد نسب التغير زيادة متواترة بسبب النقص الحاصل بعد ان كانت الامم المتحدة تصدر النفط العراقي في اتفاقية النفط مقابل الغذاء اضافة الى ذلك ارتفاع اسعار النفط المتصاعدة ,مما ادى ذلك الى تزايد انتاج النفط السعودي وادى بالتالي الى زيادة نسبة التغير الحاصل في الناتج المحلي الاجمالي  ,فضلا عن انه في النموذج المقدر في المرحلة الثامنة من جدول 3 تم اختبار بياناته باختبار Cooks Distance test  فتبين ان القيم الاعتيادية والقيم الشاذة كانت قريبة المسافة ونسبتها اقل من 20% والتي يوصي بها  العالم الاحصائي Cooks والتي ظهرت نسبتها التقديرية من النموذج المقدر  بحدود 12% ولذا فان بيانات المرحلة الثامنة مستقرة بينما اغلب المراحل كانت هناك شواذ في بياناته وان المسافة التقديرية حسب الاختبار اكثر من 20%  ولذا فان هذا النموذج يعتبر الافضل من النماذج وبالتالي سيكون اختياره ليمثل العلاقة ما بين نسبة التغير في الناتج المحلي الاجمالي والاستثمارThe importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the Saudi oil sector, like other countries in the world, which is considered one of the important and complementary sources of domestic investment, is very important. FDI is no longer only about the transfer of capital, but is also a necessary source of knowledge transfer in modern management. The transfer of advanced technology, the training and development of local technical cadres and the creation of more jobs for citizens. However, there is a decline in the degree of openness of the legislative environment attractive to foreign direct investment in terms of transparency, in spite of the available legal and administrative legislation in Saudi Arabia, as the volume of foreign investment flowing into the Saudi oil sector has fluctuated and instability of annual decay rates for several reasons, The rate of change in GDP during the period 1990-2000 was only increasing in some years as a result of the first Gulf crisis, depriving Iraq of the oil resource and increasing the production of Saudi Arabia to compensate for the shortage in the oil market and so the increase was after the second Gulf war in 2003 The rate of change has increased steadily due to the shortage after the United Nations exported The importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the Saudi oil sector, like other countries in the world, which is considered one of the important and complementary sources of domestic investment, is very important. FDI is no longer only about the transfer of capital, but is also a necessary source of knowledge transfer in modern management. The transfer of advanced technology, the training and development of local technical cadres and the creation of more jobs for citizens. However, there is a decline in the degree of openness of the legislative environment attractive to foreign direct investment in terms of transparency, in spite of the available legal and administrative legislation in Saudi Arabia, as the volume of foreign investment flowing into the Saudi oil sector has fluctuated and instability of annual decay rates for several reasons, The rate of change in GDP during the period 1990-2000 was only increasing in some years as a result of the first Gulf crisis, depriving Iraq of the oil resource and increasing the production of Saudi Arabia to compensate for the shortage in the oil market and so the increase was after the second Gulf war in 2003 The rate of change has increased steadily due to the shortage after the United Nations exported Iraqi oil in the oil-for-food agreement, in addition to the rising oil prices, which led to an increase in Saudi oil production and consequently increased the rate of change in GDP, In the estimated model in the eighth phase of Table 3, the data were tested by the COOKS DISTANCE TEST, indicating that the normal values ​​and abnormal values ​​were close to the distance and less than 20%, which is recommended by the statistical world COOKS, which is estimated by the estimated model of 12% The data for the eighth stage is stable, while most of the stages were different in the data and the estimated distance by the test is more than 20%. Therefore, this model is considered the best of the models and therefore it will be chosen to represent the relation between the ratio of change in GDP and investment.    Iraqi oil in the oil-for-food agreement, in addition to the rising oil prices, which led to an increase in Saudi oil production and consequently increased the rate of change in GDP, In the estimated model in the eighth phase of Table 3, the data were tested by the COOKS DISTANCE TEST, indicating that the normal values ​​and abnormal values ​​were close to the distance and less than 20%, which is recommended by the statistical world COOKS, which is estimated by the estimated model of 12% The data for the eighth stage is stable, while most of the stages were different in the data and the estimated distance by the test is more than 20%. Therefore, this model is considered the best of the models and therefore it will be chosen to represent the relation between the ratio of change in GDP and investment.  &nbsp