Technology diffusion in communication networks

The deployment of new technologies in the Internet is notoriously difficult, as evidence by the myriad of well-developed networking technologies that still have not seen widespread adoption (e.g., secure routing, IPv6, etc.) A key hurdle is the fact that the Internet lacks a centralized authority that can mandate the deployment of a new technology. Instead, the Internet consists of thousands of nodes, each controlled by an autonomous, profit-seeking firm, that will deploy a new networking technology only if it obtains sufficient local utility by doing so. For the technologies we study here, local utility depends on the set of nodes that can be reached by traversing paths consisting only of nodes that have already deployed the new technology. To understand technology diffusion in the Internet, we propose a new model inspired by work on the spread of influence in social networks. Unlike traditional models, where a node's utility depends only its immediate neighbors, in our model, a node can be influenced by the actions of remote nodes. Specifically, we assume node v activates (i.e. deploys the new technology) when it is adjacent to a sufficiently large connected component in the subgraph induced by the set of active nodes; namely, of size exceeding node v's threshold value \theta(v). We are interested in the problem of choosing the right seedset of nodes to activate initially, so that the rest of the nodes in the network have sufficient local utility to follow suit. We take the graph and thresholds values as input to our problem. We show that our problem is both NP-hard and does not admit an (1-o(1) ln|V| approximation on general graphs. Then, we restrict our study to technology diffusion problems where (a) maximum distance between any pair of nodes in the graph is r, and (b) there are at most \ell possible threshold values. Our set of restrictions is quite natural, given that (a) the Internet graph has constant diameter, and (b) the fact that limiting the granularity of the threshold values makes sense given the difficulty in obtaining empirical data that parameterizes deployment costs and benefits. We present algorithm that obtains a solution with guaranteed approximation rate of O(r^2 \ell \log|V|) which is asymptotically optimal, given our hardness results. Our approximation algorithm is a linear-programming relaxation of an 0-1 integer program along with a novel randomized rounding scheme.National Science Foundation (S-1017907, CCF-0915922

Lobbies and Technology Diffusion

This paper explores whether lobbies slow down technology diffusion. To answer this question, we exploit the differential effect of various institutional attributes that should affect the costs of erecting barriers when the new technology has a technologically close predecessor but not otherwise. We implement this test in a unique dataset compiled by us that covers the diffusion of 20 technologies for 23 countries over the past two centuries. We find that each of the relevant institutional variables that affect the costs of erecting barriers has a significantly larger effect on the diffusion of technologies with a competing predecessor technology than when no such a technology exists. These effects are quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that lobbies are an important barrier to technology adoption and to development.

Technology diffusion in a differentiated industry

This paper investigates the adoption timing pattern of a cost-reducing innovation in a differentiated oligopolistic industry. It compares price and quantity market competition with the second-best optimal adoption rule. The diffusion pattern typically depends on the degree of product differentiation, and on the ability of firms to precommit, or not, to a certain adoption date. When goods are imperfect substitutes, market competition leads always to later adoption dates than it is socially optimal. When goods are sufficiently close substitutesı the last adoption occurs always earlier than in the optimum; the first adoption might also occur earlier but only if preemption is a credible threat

An Exploration of Technology Diffusion

We develop and estimate a model where technology diffusion depends on the level of productivity embodied in capital and where this is, in turn, determined by two key mechanisms: the rate at which the quality embodied in new technology vintages increases (embodiment) and the gains from varieties induced by the introduction of new vintages (variety). In our model, these two effects are related to technology adoption decisions taken at two different levels. The capital goods suppliers%u2019 decisions of when to adopt a given vintage determines the embodiment margin. The workers%u2019 decisions of which of the adopted vintages to use in production determines the variety margin. Estimation of our model for a sample of 19 technologies, 21 countries, and the period 1870-1998 reveals that embodied productivity growth is large for many of the technologies in our sample. On average, increases in the variety of vintages available is a more important source of growth than the increases in the embodiment margin. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity across technologies. Where adoption lags matter, they are largely determined by lack of educational attainment and lack of trade openness.

The Diffusion and Adoption of Advanced Technologies in Canada: An Overview of the Issues

The adoption of advanced technologies is a means of fostering productivity improvement. Many theories seek to explain the process of advanced technology diffusion and adoption. Canadian firms generally trail their U.S. counterparts in the adoption of advanced technology. There are many critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of technological diffusion in Canada. Key gaps include the identification of leading and lagging industries in terms of adoption; key barriers to technological diffusion in Canada including economic-policy-related barriers; appropriate direct policy interventions to overcome specific barriers; the impact of increasing globalization and the economic ascendancy of the large developing countries on diffusion in Canada; and specific challenges small and medium enterprises face in adopting technology. Another issue requiring more research is whether strong R&D performance is a prerequisite for the broad diffusion of technologies. Possible tradeoffs between supporting R&D and supporting diffusion in the presence of limited public funds to promote innovation merit discussion.Diffusion, Adoption, Technologies, Technological diffusion, Innovation, Research and Development, R&D, Advanced technology, Technological competitiveness

Economic Development and Technology Diffusion

I first present a New Economic Geography model and analyze the impact of R&D on economic development of integrating countries. I find that technology diffusion and skilled labor migration stimulates economic development through fix cost reduction on a firm level. As the inclusion of foreign technology matters for structurally backward countries, I second use time series data for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland representing European integration during the 1980s and 1990s. In considering three different technology diffusion channels, estimates, however, reduces to Portugal as test procedures confirm nonstationarity and cointegration only for this country. I find empirical evidence for bilateral trade as a diffusion channel but not for FDI or foreign patents.Economic Geography, Agglomeration, Technology Diffusion, Nonstationary Time Series

Avoiding Stffness: Perspectives of agile technology diffusion

The increased pervasiveness of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) within the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) sector, not only introduces unparalleled opportunities for enhancing the performance of design/engineering/construction processes per se, but also serves as a unique lever for improving and delivering overall competitiveness. However, whilst the onset and evolution of ICT keeps improving, it is also recognised that organisations often fail to match this evolution, most notably through the adoption, diffusion and dissemination of this technology. This has also been acknowledged as a barrier, particularly concerning innovation opportunities. Cognisant of this, organisations are increasingly looking to secure full advantage of emerging ICT developments. On this theme, this study identifies a series of priority areas for organisations, with the specific remit of securing agility (in the market) through ICT diffusion. A questionnaire, based on an Agile-Technology Diffusion framework, was used to capture the perceptions of management professionals working in the Turkish AEC sector. The ranking analysis of the survey results and comparison of the different management perceptions (levels) are presented for discussion. Research findings identify several priority areas that need to be addressed. These findings also uncover significant differences in the perceptions of different management levels - which can help decision makers appreciate the holistic interdependencies, especially the factors which impinge (or impede) overall competitiveness

IE WP 20/03 An Evolutionary Approach to the Process of Technology Diffusion and Standardization

The study described here aims to make a threefold contribution to the analysis of technology diffusion. First of all, it tries to offer a new approach to the study of the dynamic of innovation diffusion, not from the traditional perspective of the rate at which one new technology is fully adopted, but the extent of the diffusion of several technologies and the related phenomenon of standardization. Secondly, it aims to show a broadened and evolutionary view of the process of technology standardization, avoiding the habitual determinism of conventional models of technology diffusion and lock-in. Finally, it tries to identify and evaluate the relationships existing between the main characteristics of industries and the attributes of the technology standardization processes in them. To achieve these goals we have developed an agent based model (ABM), using distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) concepts drawn from the general methodology of social simulation.Technology diffusion; standardization; lock-in; evolutionary models; agent-based models

Technology diffusion and postwar growth

In the aftermath of WorldWar II, the world's economies exhibited very different rates of economic recovery. We provide evidence that those countries that caught up the most with the U.S. in the postwar period are those that also saw an acceleration in the speed of adoption of new technologies. This acceleration is correlated with the incidence of U.S. economic aid and technical assistance in the same period. We interpret this as supportive of the interpretation that technology transfers from the U.S. to Western European countries and Japan were an important factor in driving growth in these recipient countries during the postwar decades.Technology - Economic aspects

Cross-Border Flows of People, Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Productivity

A number of empirical studies have investigated the hypothesis that cross-border flows of goods (international trade) and capital (FDI) lead to international technology diffusion. The contribution of the present paper consists in examining an as yet neglected vehicle for technology diffusion: cross-border flows of people. We find that increasing the intensity of international travel, for the purpose of business and otherwise, by 1% increases the level of aggregate total factor productivity and GDP per worker by roughly 0.2%.technology diffusion; productivity; IV estimation