21,383 research outputs found

    Computing Replenishment Cycle Policy under Non-stationary Stochastic Lead Time

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    Analysis of Scarp Profiles: Evaluation of Errors in Morphologic Dating

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    Morphologic analysis of scarp degradation can be used quantitatively to determine relative ages of different scarps formed in cohesionless materials, under the same climatic conditions. Scarps of tectonic origin as well as wavecut or rivercut terraces can be treated as topographic impulses that are attenuated by surface erosional processes. This morphological evolution can be modelled as the convolution of the initial shape with erosion (or degradation) function whose width increases with time. Such modeling applies well to scarps less than 10m high, formed in unconsolidated fanglomerates. To a good approximation, the degradation function is Gaussian with a variance measuring the degree of rounding of the initial shape. This geometric parameter can be called the degradation coefficient. A synthetic experiment shows that the degradation coefficient can be obtained by least squares fitting of profiles levelled perpendicular to the scarp. Gravitational collapse of the free face is accounted for by assuming initial scarp slopes at the angle of repose of the cohesionless materials (30°–35°). Uncertainties in the measured profiles result in an uncertainty in degradation coefficient that can be evaluated graphically. Because the degradation coefficient is sensitive to the regional slope and to three-dimensional processes (gullying, loess accumulation, stream incision, etc.), a reliable and accurate determination of degradation coefficient requires several long profiles across the same scarp. The linear diffusion model of scarp degradation is a Gaussian model in which the degradation coefficient is proportional to numerical age. In that case, absolute dating requires only determination of the propotionality constant, called the mass diffusivity constant. For Holocene scarps a few meters high, in loose alluvium under arid climatic conditions, mass diffusivity constants generally range between 1 and 6 m^2/kyr. Morphologic analysis is a reliable method to compare ages of different scarps in a given area, and it can provide approximate absolute ages of Holocene scarplike landforms

    Assessing the influence of the Merzbacher Lake outburst floods on discharge using the hydrological model SWIM in the Aksu headwaters, Kyrgyzstan/NW China

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    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) often have a significant impact on downstream users. Including their effects in hydrological models, identifying past occurrences and assessing their potential impacts are challenges for hydrologists working in mountainous catchments. The regularly outbursting Merzbacher Lake is located in the headwaters of the Aksu River, the most important source of water discharge to the Tarim River, northwest China. Modelling its water resources and the evaluation of potential climate change impacts on river discharge are indispensable for projecting future water availability for the intensively cultivated river oases downstream of the Merzbacher Lake and along the Tarim River. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWIM was calibrated to the outlet station Xiehela on the Kumarik River, by discharge the largest tributary to the Aksu River. The glacial lake outburst floods add to the difficulties of modelling this high-mountain, heavily glaciated catchment with poor data coverage and quality. The aims of the study are to investigate the glacier lake outburst floods using a modelling tool. Results include a two-step model calibration of the Kumarik catchment, an approach for the identification of the outburst floods using the measured gauge data and the modelling results and estimations of the outburst flood volumes. Results show that a catchment model can inform GLOF investigations by providing ‘normal’ (i.e. without the outburst floods) catchment discharge. The comparison of the simulated and observed discharge proves the occurrence of GLOFs and highlights the influences of the GLOFs on the downstream water balance. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

    Assessment of different modelling studies on the spatial hydrological processes in an arid alpine catchment

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    To assess the model description of spatial hydrological processes in the arid alpine catchment, SWAT and MIKE SHE were jointly applied in Yarkant River basin located in northwest China. Not only the simulated daily discharges at the outlet station but also spatiotemporal distributions of runoff, snowmelt and evapotranspiration were analyzed contrastively regarding modules' structure and algorithm. The simulation results suggested both models have their own strengths for particular hydrological processes. For the stream runoff simulation, the significant contributions of lateral interflow flow were only reflected in SWAT with a proportion of 41.4 %, while MIKE SHE simulated a more realistic distribution of base flow from groundwater with a proportion of 21.3 %. In snowmelt calculation, SWAT takes account of more available factors and got better correlations between snowmelt and runoff in temporal distribution, however, MIKE SHE presented clearer spatial distribution of snowpack because of fully distributed structure. In the aspect of water balance, less water was evaporated because of limitation of soil evaporation and less spatially distributed approach in SWAT, on another hand, the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in MIKE SHE clearly expressed influence of land use. Whether SWAT or MIKE SHE, without multiple calibrations, the model's limitation might bring in some biased opinions of hydrological processes in a catchment scale. The complementary study of combined results from multiple models could have a better understanding of overall hydrological processes in arid and scarce gauges alpine region

    Mesozoic–Tertiary exhumation history of the Altai Mountains, northern Xinjiang, China: New constraints from apatite fission track data

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    This study uses apatite fission track (FT) analysis to constrain the exhumation history of bedrock samples collected from the Altai Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China. Samples were collected as transects across the main structures related to Palaeozoic crustal accretion events. FT results and modeling identify three stages in sample cooling history spanning the Mesozoic and Tertiary. Stage one records rapid cooling to the low temperature part of the fission track partial annealing zone circa 70 ± 10 °C. Stage two, records a period of relative stability with little if any cooling taking place between 75 and 25–20 Ma suggesting the Altai region had been reduced to an area of low relief. Support for this can be found in the adjacent Junngar Basin that received little if any sediment during this interval. Final stage cooling took place in the Miocene at an accelerated rate bringing the sampled rocks to the Earth's surface. This last stage, linked to the far field effects of the Himalayan collision, most likely generated the surface uplift and relief that define the present-day Altai Mountains
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