A Hybrid Modelling Framework for Real-time Decision-support for Urgent and Emergency Healthcare

In healthcare, opportunities to use real-time data to support quick and effective decision-making are expanding rapidly, as data increases in volume, velocity and variety. In parallel, the need for short-term decision-support to improve system resilience is increasingly relevant, with the recent COVID-19 crisis underlining the pressure that our healthcare services are under to deliver safe, effective, quality care in the face of rapidly-shifting parameters. A real-time hybrid model (HM) which combines real-time data, predictions, and simulation, has the potential to support short-term decision-making in healthcare. Considering decision-making as a consequence of situation awareness focuses the HM on what information is needed where, when, how, and by whom with a view toward sustained implementation. However the articulation between real-time decision-support tools and a sociotechnical approach to their development and implementation is currently lacking in the literature. Having identified the need for a conceptual framework to support the development of real-time HMs for short-term decision-support, this research proposed and tested the Integrated Hybrid Analytics Framework (IHAF) through an examination of the stages of a Design Science methodology and insights from the literature examining decision-making in dynamic, sociotechnical systems, data analytics, and simulation. Informed by IHAF, a HM was developed using real-time Emergency Department data, time-series forecasting, and discrete-event simulation. The application started with patient questionnaires to support problem definition and to act as a formative evaluation, and was subsequently evaluated using staff interviews. Evaluation of the application found multiple examples where the objectives of people or sub-systems are not aligned, resulting in inefficiencies and other quality problems, which are characteristic of complex adaptive sociotechnical systems. Synthesis of the literature, the formative evaluation, and the final evaluation found significant themes which can act as antecedents or evaluation criteria for future real-time HM studies in sociotechnical systems, in particular in healthcare. The generic utility of IHAF is emphasised for supporting future applications in similar domains

Architectural stability of self-adaptive software systems

This thesis studies the notion of stability in software engineering with the aim of understanding its dimensions, facets and aspects, as well as characterising it. The thesis further investigates the aspect of behavioural stability at the architectural level, as a property concerned with the architecture's capability in maintaining the achievement of expected quality of service and accommodating runtime changes, in order to delay the architecture drifting and phasing-out as a consequence of the continuous unsuccessful provision of quality requirements. The research aims to provide a systematic and methodological support for analysing, modelling, designing and evaluating architectural stability. The novelty of this research is the consideration of stability during runtime operation, by focusing on the stable provision of quality of service without violations. As the runtime dimension is associated with adaptations, the research investigates stability in the context of self-adaptive software architectures, where runtime stability is challenged by the quality of adaptation, which in turn affects the quality of service. The research evaluation focuses on the effectiveness, scale and accuracy in handling runtime dynamics, using the self-adaptive cloud architectures