The Welfare Consequences of Hospital Mergers

In the 1990s the US hospital industry consolidated. This paper estimates the impact of the wave of hospital mergers on welfare focusing on the impact on consumer surplus for the under-65 population. For the purposes of quantifying the price impact of consolidations, hospitals are modeled as an input to the production of health insurance for the under-65 population. The estimates indicate that the aggregate magnitude of the impact of hospital mergers is modest but not trivial. In 2001, average HMO premiums are estimated to be 3.2% higher than they would have been absent any hospital merger activity during the 1990s. In 2003, we estimate that because of hospital mergers private insurance rolls declined by approximately .3 percentage points or approximately 695,000 lives with the vast majority of those who lost private insurance joining the ranks of the uninsured. Our estimates imply that hospital mergers resulted in a cumulative consumer surplus loss of over $42.2 billion between 1990 and 2001. It is estimated that all but a modest$95.4 million of the loss in consumer surplus is transferred from consumers to providers.

Robustness of optimal inter-city railway network structure in Japan against alternative population distributions

It takes long time and huge amount of money to construct inter-city railway network. Careful demand forecasting and rational service planning are therefore required. However, long ranged demand forecasting is always facing to unintended change of regional population or change of the service level of competing transportation modes such as airline and inter-city express bus. Those changes sometimes resulted in severe decrease of demand for the constructed railway lines and discussion of abolishment of train service occurs. In order to avoid such tragedy, we want to build a robust network plan not vulnerable for the changes in forecasting conditions. This paper discusses the robustness of optimal inter-city railway network structure in Japan against alternative population distributions. Genetic Algorithm is applied to find best mixture of maximum operation speed category and number of daily train service for each link, which maximize the total consumer surplus of inter-city railway passengers. Consumer surplus is assessed by a gravity demand model considering service level along several routes for each OD pair. Travel time calculated by allocated link speed category, allocated train frequency, and estimated fare regressed by travel speed, will be summarized as route service level via ML route choice model parameters. In the GA, we consider a chromosome consists of two parts; speed category of 275 links and relative operation distance of trains in those links. Besides the real distribution of population in 197 Japanese local areas in the year of 1995, we set four other hypothetic population distributions; two of them concentrate in megalopolises like Tokyo, others disperse along geographically remote areas. We first obtain network structures optimized by the GA for each population setting. Speed category allocation will be compared for the five network plans. Secondly, we calculate total consumer surplus of each network plan under the different population settings and discuss the vulnerability of those plans. Thirdly, we optimize train operation plans for different population settings under the given speed category arrangements. The results shows that spatial arrangement of high speed railway service in 1995 keeps optimality for wide range of population settings, if we adjust number of trains according to alternative population distribution.

A Proposal to Create the Buffalo Green Land Bank

For many years the city of Buffalo has had far more housing units than households. Buffalo has experienced a precipitous population decline over the past fifty years. From 580,000 in 1950, Buffalo residents declined to 462,000 by 1970. In 2006, the population had dropped to 276,059. This flight from the city, a product of both suburbanization and the decline of the Rust Belt, has resulted in numerous vacant properties. With a weak housing market and continued population decline, the surplus of housing infrastructure will persist. Many of Buffalo’s policymakers, citizens, and nonprofit organizations have recognized the need to repair the urban fabric by attracting more people back to the core communities and decreasing the surplus housing stock and infrastructure. While potential solutions abound, the City has not formed a comprehensive plan to incorporate these disparate actors

The Immigration Surplus Revisited in a General Equilibrium Model with Endogenous Growth

We revisit the work of Borjas (1995) which has provided an influential positive theory of immigration policy. An important feature of his framework is the focus on the skill-composition of immigrants and we retain this feature in our paper. Our contribution to this literature is to extend his analysis in a number of directions. First, we study the immigration surplus in the context of a general equilibrium model in which capital is endogenous and the welfare of the indigenous population is set out explicitly. Second, we introduce several sectors into the model so that changing the skill composition leads to changes in sector shares. Third, related to the second development, we introduce and R&D sector and develop a model with long-term endogenous growth. The result is that growth effects on the Immigration Surplus come to dominate the purely static effects in the original analysis of Borjas, but they are not sufficient to eliminate the emergence of losers among the section of natives competing with immigrants in the labour market.immigration surplus, economic growth, income distribution

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and educational level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enable the system to be reduced to one non-linear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.Comment: 4 page

On the Concentration of Allocations and Comparisons of Auctions in Large Economies

We analyze competitive pressures in a sequence of auctions with a growing number of bidders, in a model that includes private and common valuations as special cases. We show that the key determinant of bidders' surplus (and implicitly auction revenue) is how the goods are distributed. In any setting and sequence of auctions where the allocation of good(s) is concentrated among a shrinking proportion of the population, the winning bidders enjoy no surplus in the limit. If instead the good(s) are allocated in a dispersed manner so that a non- vanishing proportion of the bidders obtain objects, then in any of a wide class of auctions bidders enjoy a surplus that is bounded away from zero. Moreover, under dispersed allocations, the format of the auction matters. If bidders have constant marginal utilities for objects up to some limit, then uniform price auctions lead to higher revenue than discriminatory auctions. If agents have decreasing marginal utilities for objects, then uniform price auctions are asymptotically efficient, while discriminatory auctions are asymptotically {\sl in}efficient. Finally, we show that in some cases where dispersed allocations are efficient, revenue may increase by bundling goods at the expense of efficiency.Auction, Competition, Mechanism, Asymptotic Efficiency, Revenue Equivalence

Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?

The Japanese current account has been in surplus since 1981, ranging from 1% to more than 4% of GDP. In this paper, we review the macroeconomic forces that have driven the surplus and describe likely changes in the first part of the next century. In coming years, structural change in Japan's economy-population aging, the globalization of production, and financial market reforms-will alter the underlying determinants of the surplus. While the net effect of these forces is difficult to predict, the most likely outcome is a gradual closing of the current account gap. We use large-model simulation analysis to evaluate the potential for specific developments to alter the current account, and we assess their likely impact on the Japanese economy.Japanese current account, forecast

Impact of the commercial fishery on the population of bait shrimp (Penaeus spp.) in Biscayne Bay, 1986

Monthly population size of bait shrimp in the Bay was estimated from December 1984 to July 1985. Growth rates for male and female P. duorarum showed that pink shrimp exhibit a mean residence time in the nursery area (Biscayne Bay) of approximately 21 weeks. Monthly mortality rates were determined for each sex of pink shrimp. It was estimated that 23% and 26% of the male and female monthly population size, respectively, was absorbed by both the fishery and ecosystem monthly. Monthly proportion of the standing stock expected to die exclusively through fishing was 6.5% and 6.0% for males and females respectively. Estimates of emigration rates showed that approximately 4.0% of the population was lost from the Bay system each month. This surplus production was about 50% of the average monthly catch by the fleet. Fishing mortality represents only 8 - 9% of the losses to the shrimp population. The biggest source of loss is emigration, suggesting that most shrimp beyond the size at recruitment (to the fishery) are not utilized for food while in the Bay. Thus, it appears that the direct impact of the fishery on the bait shrimp population is relatively small. (PDF contains 46 pages