Studying blog features over link popularity

The study of the blogosphere can provide sociologically relevant data. We analyze the links between blogs in the portuguese blogosphere, in order to understand how they group and interact, to identify clusters and to characterize them. Our data set contains post data for more than 70,000 blogs, with over 400,000 links. The linkage data is represented as a blog graph and partitioned into several slices, according to their in-degree. We then study the evolution of blog features, and observe a consistent pattern of decrease in posting frequency, number of out-links, and post length, as we move from the highly-cited blogs to the less cited ones. Copyright 2010 ACM

The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity

News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84% accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web

Precursors and Laggards: An Analysis of Semantic Temporal Relationships on a Blog Network

We explore the hypothesis that it is possible to obtain information about the dynamics of a blog network by analysing the temporal relationships between blogs at a semantic level, and that this type of analysis adds to the knowledge that can be extracted by studying the network only at the structural level of URL links. We present an algorithm to automatically detect fine-grained discussion topics, characterized by n-grams and time intervals. We then propose a probabilistic model to estimate the temporal relationships that blogs have with one another. We define the precursor score of blog A in relation to blog B as the probability that A enters a new topic before B, discounting the effect created by asymmetric posting rates. Network-level metrics of precursor and laggard behavior are derived from these dyadic precursor score estimations. This model is used to analyze a network of French political blogs. The scores are compared to traditional link degree metrics. We obtain insights into the dynamics of topic participation on this network, as well as the relationship between precursor/laggard and linking behaviors. We validate and analyze results with the help of an expert on the French blogosphere. Finally, we propose possible applications to the improvement of search engine ranking algorithms

Precursors and Laggards: An Analysis of Semantic Temporal Relationships on a Blog Network

We explore the hypothesis that it is possible to obtain information about the dynamics of a blog network by analysing the temporal relationships between blogs at a semantic level, and that this type of analysis adds to the knowledge that can be extracted by studying the network only at the structural level of URL links. We present an algorithm to automatically detect fine-grained discussion topics, characterized by n-grams and time intervals. We then propose a probabilistic model to estimate the temporal relationships that blogs have with one another. We define the precursor score of blog A in relation to blog B as the probability that A enters a new topic before B, discounting the effect created by asymmetric posting rates. Network-level metrics of precursor and laggard behavior are derived from these dyadic precursor score estimations. This model is used to analyze a network of French political blogs. The scores are compared to traditional link degree metrics. We obtain insights into the dynamics of topic participation on this network, as well as the relationship between precursor/laggard and linking behaviors. We validate and analyze results with the help of an expert on the French blogosphere. Finally, we propose possible applications to the improvement of search engine ranking algorithms