Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2012 report is based on a survey of 469 experts from industry, government, academia and civil society that examines 50 global risks across five categories. The report emphasizes the singular effect of a particular constellation of global risks rather than focusing on a single existential risk. Three distinct constellations of risks that present a very serious threat to our future prosperity and security emerged from a review of this year's set of risks. Includes a special review of the important lessons learned from the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and the subsequent nuclear crisis at Fukushima, Japan. It focuses on therole of leadership, challenges to effective communication in this information age and resilient business models in response to crises of unforeseen magnitude

China, the United States, and the Climate Change Challenge

Outlines China's climate change policy, U.S. concerns about transfer of carbon-intensive jobs to China and ways to address them, ways for U.S. policy and legislation to spur China's adoption of clean technologies, and specific mechanisms for cooperation

Urban Myths and the Mis-use of Data that Underpin them

This paper describes the gaps and limitations in the data available on urban populations for many low- and middle-income nations and how this limits the accuracy of international comparisons – for instance of levels of urbanization and of the size of city populations. It also discusses how the lack of attention to data limitations has led to many myths and misconceptions in regard to growth rates for city populations and for nations’ levels of urbanization. It ends with some comments on how data limitations distort urban policies.urbanization, city populations, censuses

Tourism carbon Kuznets-curve hypothesis: a systematic literature review and a paradigm shift to a corporation-performance perspective

Since the introduction of the carbon Kuznets-curve hypothesis in the mid-1990s, the inverted U–shaped relationship between economic development and carbon emissions has remained a subject of debate in the social sciences. We engage tourism research in this debate, in a fourfold manner. First, we offer a systematic literature review concerning the role of tourism in the carbon Kuznets-curve hypothesis using a protocol-based reporting process. Second, we present the level of consensus with the carbon Kuznets-curve hypothesis and the conceptual gaps in the identified literature (n = 22). Third, we introduce an emerging concept, offering a novel tourism corporate/performance orientation to the carbon Kuznets-curve hypothesis. Fourth, we provide evidence of empirical validity using different econometric techniques from an international tourism corporation (n = 86) data set (2005–2018). The inverted U–shaped relationship between measures of economic and carbon performance among tourism corporations is a robust result under many different specifications

Urbanisation as a Threat or Opportunity in the Promotion of Human Wellbeing

It is possible to present a credible picture of urbanisation as one of the greatest threats to human health, wellbeing and development, although this paper will argue that to do so requires focusing on a limited set of cities. There is a stronger evidence base on cities and urbanisation underpinning good health, fulfilment of civil rights, democracy and freedom from deprivation, although with important exceptions. It is possible to present urbanisation as the most serious driver of human-induced climate change (and of most other kinds of ecological damage). But cities also have the potential to be places where high living standards can be delinked from unsustainable ecological footprints and high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (and there are some cities that demonstrate this). Of course, a very different set of urban centres get highlighted, depending on which of these points one wants to substantiate. What this paper seeks to do is to highlight both the threats and the opportunities posed by urbanisation

Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets

What is the magnitude of uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, GDP and emissions intensity of economies? Is there a link between fluctuations in economic activity and fluctuations in emissions? These questions are crucial to understand the extent and composition of cost uncertainty under emissions trading schemes, the degree to which it can be reduced by mechanism design options such asintensity targets, and for calibrating models of emissions trading under uncertainty.This paper provides empirical analyses, using historical emissions data in forecast models and in country-level analysis over time. The results indicate that uncertainty about future energy sector CO2 emissions and emissions intensity is greater than uncertainty about future GDP; that uncertainties are greater in non-OECD than in OECD countries; and that there is a strong positive correlation between fluctuations in GDP and fluctuations in CO2 emissions, but not in all cases and not outside the energy sector.Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity targets; forecasting.Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity

Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data

The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the Hadley global temperature data up to 1950 (time period before anthropogenic emissions became the dominant forcing mechanism), and then extrapolated from 1951 to 2009. After subtraction of the model, the residuals showed an approximate linear upward trend after 1942. Herein we assume that the residual upward warming observed during the second half of the 20th century has been mostly induced by a worldwide rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, urbanization and land use change. The warming observed before 1942 is relatively small and it is assumed to have been mostly naturally induced by a climatic recovery since the Little Ice Age of the 17th century and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 19th century. The resulting full natural plus anthropogenic model fits the entire 160 year record very well. Residual analysis does not provide any evidence for a substantial cooling effect due to sulfate aerosols from 1940 to 1970. The cooling observed during that period may be due to a natural 60-year cycle, which is visible in the global temperature since 1850 and has been observed also in numerous multisecular climatic records. New solar activity proxy models are developed that suggest a mechanism for both the 60-year climate cycle and a portion of the long-term warming trend. Our results suggest that because current models underestimate the strength of natural multidecadal cycles in the temperature records, the anthropogenic contribution to climate change since 1970 should be around half of that previously claimed by the IPCC [2007]. A 21st Century forecast suggests that climate may warm less than 1^{\circ}C by 2100

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AS A VEHICLE FOR ADAPTING TO GLOBAL WARMING

This study assesses the potential interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish between two dimensions of agricultural trade policy: market insulation and subsidy levels. Building on the previous work of Tsigas, Frisvold and Kuhn (1997) we find that, in the presence of current levels of agricultural subsidies, increased price transmission- as called for under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture- reduces global welfare in the wake of climate change. this is due to the positive correlation between productivity changes and current levels of agricultural support. Increases in subsidized output under climate change tend to exacerbate inefficiencies in the global agricultural economy in the absence of market insulation. However, once agricultural subsidies have also been eliminated, price transmission via the global trading system contributes positively to economic adaptation under climate change.Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade,