A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin

The Caspian Sea basin holds large quantities of both oil and natural gas that could help meet the increasing global demand for energy resources. Consequently, the oil and gas potential of the region has attracted the attention of the international oil and gas industry. The key to realizing the energy producing potential of the region is the development of transnational export routes to take oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian Sea basin to world markets. The evaluation and selection of alternative transnational export routes is a complex multi-criteria problem with conflicting objectives. The decision makers (DMs) are required to consider a vast amount of information concerning internal strengths and weaknesses of the alternative routes as well as external opportunities and threats to them. This paper presents a hybrid model that combines strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) analysis with the Delphi metho

Cultural Differences in Perceiving Transitions in Emotional Facial Expressions: Easterners Show Greater Contrast Effects than Westerners

Past research suggests that East Asians (Easterners) are more likely than North Americans and Western Europeans (Westerners) to incorporate information from concurrent affective contexts when judging facial expressions. The present research extends this literature by investigating the impact of temporal affective contexts on emotion perception. Specifically, two experiments tested the hypothesis that when judging smiles, Easterners are more likely than Westerners to be influenced by preceding facial expressions. In Experiment 1, participants from China and Canada judged the valence of low-intensity smiles that were preceded by expressions of anger or high-intensity smiles. The results indicated that, compared to Canadian participants, Chinese perceivers were more influenced by preceding expressions, with larger differences in perceived valence of smiles preceded by different start emotions. Experiment 2 investigated whether this pattern of findings generalized to other Western populations and to other emotional transitions. Participants from China and the Netherlands judged the valence of (high- or low- intensity) smiles preceded by angry, fearful, or neutral expressions. Consistent with Experiment 1, Chinese participants' judgments of smiles were impacted more by the preceding expressions, a finding that was stable across emotions. Together, these findings demonstrate that Easterners, relative to Westerners, are influenced more by the preceding temporal emotional context when judging others' current smiling facial expressions

Beyond the culture effect on credibility perception on microblogs

We investigated the credibility perception of tweet readers from the USA and by readers from eight Arabic countries; our aim was to understand if credibility was affected by country and/or by culture. Results from a crowd-sourcing experiment, showed a wide variety of factors affected credibility perception, including a tweet author's gender, profile image, username style, location, and social network overlap with the reader. We found that culture determines readers' credibility perception, but country has no effect. We discuss the implications of our findings for user interface design and social media systems

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives

Religious atmosphere, seismic impact, and corporate charitable donations in China

This study examines the external socio-cultural and natural environment factors that driving corporate philanthropy in China. We focus on two predominant influences: religiosity, specifically the traditional Three-Teachings (Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism), and seismic activities. Using a large sample of 31,673 firm-year observations from Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2020, our findings reveal that (a) firms immersed in more pronounced religious-cultural presence have higher donation incentives, and (b) firms experiencing higher seismic impacts or are located in high seismic risk areas show heightened corporate philanthropic tendencies. Our multidisciplinary approach bridges various academic disciplines, presenting an innovative framework for understanding the intersection of corporate philanthropy, socio-cultural environments, and natural disasters in China. Overall, we highlight the importance of external environmental factors in shaping corporate charitable behaviours

Identifying Dis/Misinformation on Social Media: A Policy Report for the Diplomacy Lab Strategies for Identifying Mis/Disinformation Project

Dis/misinformation was a major concern in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and has only worsened in recent years. Even though domestic actors often spread dis/misinformation, actors abroad can use it to spread confusion and push their agenda to the detriment of American citizens. Even though this report focuses on actors outside the United States, the methods they use are universal and can be adapted to work against domestic agents. A solid understanding of these methods is the first step in combating foreign dis/misinformation campaigns and creating a new information literacy paradigm. This report highlights the primary mechanisms of dis/misinformation: multimedia manipulation, bots, astroturfing, and trolling. These forms of dis/misinformation were selected after thorough research about common pathways dis/misinformation are spread online. Multimedia manipulation details image, video, and audio dis/misinformation in the form of deepfakes, memes, and out-of-context images. Bots are automated social media accounts that are not managed by humans and often contribute to dis/misinformation campaigns. Astroturfing and trolls use deception to sway media users to join false grassroots campaigns and utilize emotionally charged posts to provoke a response from users. This policy report also defines case studies of disinformation in China, Russia, and Iran, outlining common patterns of dis/misinformation specific to these countries. These patterns will allow for more accurate and quick identification of dis/misinformation from the outlined countries by State Department Watch Officers. Recommendations have also been provided for each type of disinformation and include a list of what individuals should look for and how to make sure that the information they receive is accurate and from a reputable source. The addendum at the end of the paper lists all of the recommendations in one place so that individuals do not have to search the paper for the recommendation they are looking for. This report intends to aid State Department Watch Officers as they work to identify foreign developments accurately. Still, researchers may find this information useful in anticipating future developments in foreign dis/misinformation campaigns

ECOLOGY AND VIOLENCE: THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF WAR

Research reported by Thomas Homer-Dixon characterizes five social effects that can significantly increase the likelihood of violence in the emerging world, effects that are far deeper than can be controlled by security forces: (1) constrained agricultural production, often in ecologically marginal regions; (2) constrained economic productivity, mainly affecting people who are highly dependent on environmental resources and who are ecologically and economically marginal; (3) migration of these affected people in search of better lives; (4) greater segmentation of society, usually along existing ethnic cleavages; and (5) disruption of institutions, especially the state.1 These kinds of social effects create tensions that can erupt in violent expression. It is difficult to envision how additional security forces will solve the embedded social problems that link violence with economic, social, ethnic, and even religious frustrations. This manuscript seeks to address these concerns. Part I elaborates ways in which these issues of violence manifest themselves in a globalized economy. Part II discusses the business implications of these tensions and suggests a way in which business can be a mediating actor to lessen these tensions. Part III concludes with a suggestion for a recharacterization of the corporation in a way to sensitize it to the ecological-mindedness necessary to address the potential issues of violence in societies. We propose sustainable peace as an aim to which businesses should orient their actions both for reasons of the good of avoiding the activities that contribute to the spilling of blood as well as for the good of sustainable economic enterprises, which are fostered by stable, peaceful relationships. Thus, business must do what it does best and address economic development, even in terms of the extraction of natural resources. But it must also be attentive to the rights of others, to the development of community and meaning, and to stop violence when it is likely. Given the dangers ecological stresses pose for the planet, it is hard to think of a more compelling reason to reorient business behavior.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40084/3/wp698.pd

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Adaptive management of Ramsar wetlands

Abstract The Macquarie Marshes are one of Australia’s iconic wetlands, recognised for their international importance, providing habitat for some of the continent’s more important waterbird breeding sites as well as complex and extensive flood-dependent vegetation communities. Part of the area is recognised as a wetland of international importance, under the Ramsar Convention. River regulation has affected their resilience, which may increase with climate change. Counteracting these impacts, the increased amount of environmental flow provided to the wetland through the buy-back and increased wildlife allocation have redressed some of the impacts of river regulation. This project assists in the development of an adaptive management framework for this Ramsar-listed wetland. It brings together current management and available science to provide an informed hierarchy of objectives that incorporates climate change adaptation and assists transparent management. The project adopts a generic approach allowing the framework to be transferred to other wetlands, including Ramsar-listed wetlands, supplied by rivers ranging from highly regulated to free flowing. The integration of management with science allows key indicators to be monitored that will inform management and promote increasingly informed decisions. The project involved a multi-disciplinary team of scientists and managers working on one of the more difficult challenges for Australia, exacerbated by increasing impacts of climate change on flows and inundation patterns