Struggles with Survey Weighting and Regression Modeling

The general principles of Bayesian data analysis imply that models for survey responses should be constructed conditional on all variables that affect the probability of inclusion and nonresponse, which are also the variables used in survey weighting and clustering. However, such models can quickly become very complicated, with potentially thousands of poststratification cells. It is then a challenge to develop general families of multilevel probability models that yield reasonable Bayesian inferences. We discuss in the context of several ongoing public health and social surveys. This work is currently open-ended, and we conclude with thoughts on how research could proceed to solve these problems.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0710.5009], [arXiv:0710.5012], [arXiv:0710.5013], [arXiv:0710.5015], [arXiv:0710.5016]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0710.5019]. Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000691 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Social Struggles as Epistemic Struggles

__Abstract__ This contribution offers a view on social struggles as epistemic struggles to critically engage with the Activism 2010+ debate. Our core idea is that socia

NACCS 37th Annual Conference

Chicana/o Environmental Justics Struggles for a Post-Neoliberal AgeApril 7-10, 2010Grand Hyatthttps://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/naccs_programs/1027/thumbnail.jp

Political power struggles in Aceh

This paper looks at how political power in Aceh is moving away from the old Free Aceh Movement government-in-exile. Introduction Political dynamics within the top ranks of the former rebel Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) suggest that a generational transfer of power is underway. The old diaspora elite, led from abroad by Malik Mahmud until the 2005 Helsinki peace agreement, is losing influence. Authority derived from long-term service to the movement and closeness to its late founder, Hasan Tiro, is being replaced by authority derived from control of local resources and political institutions. By this measure, Muzakir Manaf, the former GAM guerrilla commander, who is simultaneously vice-governor, CEO of a business conglomerate and head of the Aceh Party (Partai Aceh), GAM’s main political vehicle for winning local elections, is the most powerful person in Aceh. His willingness to defer to his old political superiors in the struggle appears to be coming to an end. This is particularly apparent in his ongoing rift with Gov. Zaini Abdullah. Distancing itself from the old guard could weaken Partai Aceh in several ways. Its claim to be the party of peace because of its role in the Helsinki pact could lose force with the electorate. There would be fewer positives to balance against its rent-seeking and sometimes thuggish tactics. It could be more prone to splinters, especially as ex-combatants resentful of Muzakir’s authoritarian tendencies opt out or are expelled from the party. It could have less access to top officials in Jakarta, where the main link was between Jusuf Kalla and Malik as a result of the peace process. Partai Aceh strategists close to Muzakir, however, are trying to strengthen the political base through two methods. One is rejuvenation, relying less on ex-combatants for political office since as a group they have performed poorly, and more on younger, better educated cadres. The second is reaching out to conservative clerics by promising to strengthen the role of Islam in everyday life. This may be at odds with the largely secular outlook of many top GAM leaders but it is seen as important to shoring up GAM’s grassroots constituency. Three other factors could affect how the party evolves. One is the political ambition of former governor Irwandi Yusuf, newly reconciled with Muzakir after a bitter electoral fight in 2012. He sees a political partnership with Muzakir under the Partai Aceh banner as the best way of uniting GAM and ensuring that Jakarta delivers on the unfulfilled promises of Helsinki. Muzakir supporters are not so sure. The second is whether national parties continue to eat into Partai Aceh’s strength, as they did in the 2014 election. The new party Nasdem in particular has some popular elected legislators with ambitions to run for executive office; they might be able to capture some district and municipal posts in 2017. Civil society activists are also interested in trying to groom their own cadres to enter the political arena. The third is how Jakarta reacts. Throughout the Yudhoyono administration, the president was personally engaged in trying to keep Partai Aceh and the old guard on side in the interest of strengthening the peace. President Jokowi is likely to be less focused on Aceh, and his conservative security advisers are more likely to favour a weak and divided GAM than one united behind a new generation of leaders. The 2017 election for governor and district heads will be a chance to assess Partai Aceh’s ability to survive the founding generation. Its candidate for governor will likely win. The question is whether the percentage of victory will be more or less than in 2012, when the ticket of Zaini-Muzakir won 54 per cent of the vote after a campaign marked by violence and intimidation. A reconciliation ticket with Muzakir and Irwandi could send those numbers soaring, but few think it will transpire, especially since both want to be governor. A less than 50 per cent performance, even if still secures the governorship, could be a harbinger of a further decline for the party in the 2019 legislative elections

Pioneering Women\u27s Committee Struggles with Hard Times

[Excerpt] The Women\u27s Committee of IUE Local 201, established informally in 1976 and officially in 1978, is one of the oldest and longest-lived union women\u27s committees in the country. It took root and thrived within a large and overwhelmingly male General Electric manufacturing complex in the Greater Boston area and within one of the oldest, most democratic and most progressive union locals in the labor movement. For the past 11 years, the Committee has battled an extremely insensitive and recalcitrant GE management over a wide range of issues — winning substantial victories for training and entry of women into skilled jobs, for comparable worth wage adjustments in traditional jobs, and for pregnancy disability benefits and parental leave. Committee members have counseled hundreds of women and spearheaded fights for individual grievances on pregnancy disability, sexual harassment and discrimination. Within the local, the Committee\u27s activities have created a more positive climate for women to become stewards and committee members and to run for offices on the Policy Board. Most of the Committee leaders and many of the active members are a key part of the progressive wing within Local 201. But the local now faces massive layoffs triggered by GE\u27s transfer of work to other plants in the U.S. and abroad. The cuts began in June 1987 and are expected to reach 3,000 or 4,000 members by the middle of 1989. With its ranks being cut in half, Local 201 membership is understandably uneasy about its future, and many of the Women\u27s Committee\u27s past accomplishments are now in jeopardy. As preparations begin for the national GE contract, which expires in June, GE is pushing for major concessions as the price to pay for job security. The progressive movement is faced with the dual tasks of opposing concessions and pushing to save jobs. In this context, the Women\u27s Committee\u27s challenge is to push ahead with its agenda in a very difficult political climate. As 1988 begins, both Local 201 and its Women\u27s Committee are in rapid transition

Helping the World\u27s Poor

What began as a health screening project for orphans ended with eye-opening lessons on the struggles facing some of the world’s most vulnerable people

Heritage, gentrification, participation : remaking urban landscapes in the name of culture and historic preservation : introduction

This special issue explores the relationship between heritagization, shifting economies, and urban struggles in different cities around the globe. Our aim is to examine the conditions that have brought history, culture, an old/new urban aesthetics, real estate values, and housing struggles in a relational nexus by looking at the ways in which differently-situated actors mobilize the language of cultural heritage to act upon urban spaces. Ideas of what constitutes a beautiful and livable city are changing along with capital accumulation strategies and urban social geographies. The growing heritagization of historic neighborhoods enables local governments and real-estate developers to engender massive spatial and social changes in the urban landscape. City authorities renovate last swaths of urban fabrics in the name of historic preservation and of the ‘common good’, but this often means that local residents are evicted while private developers allied with these authorities realize huge profits by ‘regenerating’ depressed areas. Yet, local residents also resort to the language of cultural heritage to combat the destruction of their urban worlds. What are the consequences for those who cannot afford to live in the newly restored quarters? What kinds of heritage rhetoric are being mobilized by involved actors? How do rooted political cultures shape the local instantiation of this globalizing phenomenon? Recent urban struggles in the Middle East and Europe reveal an inextricable link between heritagization, gentrification, and urban politics. We invite contributors to submit papers dealing with such links between heritagization and housing struggles, evictions, cultural capitalism, and changing urban aesthetics.

Together

Many struggles are now becoming visible. And many self-motivated people motivate me, in turn, to address problems. Unpaid activist work is a double burden. The work is exhausting and looking the imbalances one sees squarely in the eye is demanding. But unpaid activist work also has its own compensation. It helps me to escape powerlessness. Swallowing something down certainly avoids the immediate fury—but it leaves me helpless and alone, and I really just can’t with that.It’s necessary to connect many different struggles. Because then it’s suddenly about a better life for everyone. There’s always something to do. This is overwhelming. But there are also always people with whom one can do it together. And that empowers