Estimating Maximally Probable Constrained Relations by Mathematical Programming

Estimating a constrained relation is a fundamental problem in machine learning. Special cases are classification (the problem of estimating a map from a set of to-be-classified elements to a set of labels), clustering (the problem of estimating an equivalence relation on a set) and ranking (the problem of estimating a linear order on a set). We contribute a family of probability measures on the set of all relations between two finite, non-empty sets, which offers a joint abstraction of multi-label classification, correlation clustering and ranking by linear ordering. Estimating (learning) a maximally probable measure, given (a training set of) related and unrelated pairs, is a convex optimization problem. Estimating (inferring) a maximally probable relation, given a measure, is a 01-linear program. It is solved in linear time for maps. It is NP-hard for equivalence relations and linear orders. Practical solutions for all three cases are shown in experiments with real data. Finally, estimating a maximally probable measure and relation jointly is posed as a mixed-integer nonlinear program. This formulation suggests a mathematical programming approach to semi-supervised learning.Comment: 16 page

Scalable Audience Reach Estimation in Real-time Online Advertising

Online advertising has been introduced as one of the most efficient methods of advertising throughout the recent years. Yet, advertisers are concerned about the efficiency of their online advertising campaigns and consequently, would like to restrict their ad impressions to certain websites and/or certain groups of audience. These restrictions, known as targeting criteria, limit the reachability for better performance. This trade-off between reachability and performance illustrates a need for a forecasting system that can quickly predict/estimate (with good accuracy) this trade-off. Designing such a system is challenging due to (a) the huge amount of data to process, and, (b) the need for fast and accurate estimates. In this paper, we propose a distributed fault tolerant system that can generate such estimates fast with good accuracy. The main idea is to keep a small representative sample in memory across multiple machines and formulate the forecasting problem as queries against the sample. The key challenge is to find the best strata across the past data, perform multivariate stratified sampling while ensuring fuzzy fall-back to cover the small minorities. Our results show a significant improvement over the uniform and simple stratified sampling strategies which are currently widely used in the industry