Finding Core Members of Cooperative Games using Agent-Based Modeling

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful paradigm to gain insight into social phenomena. One area that ABM has rarely been applied is coalition formation. Traditionally, coalition formation is modeled using cooperative game theory. In this paper, a heuristic algorithm is developed that can be embedded into an ABM to allow the agents to find coalition. The resultant coalition structures are comparable to those found by cooperative game theory solution approaches, specifically, the core. A heuristic approach is required due to the computational complexity of finding a cooperative game theory solution which limits its application to about only a score of agents. The ABM paradigm provides a platform in which simple rules and interactions between agents can produce a macro-level effect without the large computational requirements. As such, it can be an effective means for approximating cooperative game solutions for large numbers of agents. Our heuristic algorithm combines agent-based modeling and cooperative game theory to help find agent partitions that are members of a games' core solution. The accuracy of our heuristic algorithm can be determined by comparing its outcomes to the actual core solutions. This comparison achieved by developing an experiment that uses a specific example of a cooperative game called the glove game. The glove game is a type of exchange economy game. Finding the traditional cooperative game theory solutions is computationally intensive for large numbers of players because each possible partition must be compared to each possible coalition to determine the core set; hence our experiment only considers games of up to nine players. The results indicate that our heuristic approach achieves a core solution over 90% of the time for the games considered in our experiment.Comment: 19 page

Humans and the Core Partition: An Agent-Based Modeling Experiment

Although strategic coalition formation is traditionally modeled using cooperative game theory, behavioral game theorists have repeatedly shown that outcomes predicted by game theory are different from those generated by actual human behavior. To further explore these differences, in a cooperative game theory context, we experiment to compare the outcomes resulting from human participants’ behavior to those generated by a cooperative game theory solution mechanism called the core partition. Our experiment uses an interactive simulation of a glove game, a particular type of cooperative game, to collect the participant’s decision choices and their resultant outcomes. Two different glove games are considered, and the outputs from 62 trial games are analyzed. The experiment’s outcomes show that core coalitions, which are coalitions in a core partition, are found in about 42% of games. Though this number may seem low, a trial’s outcome is more complex than whether the human player finds a core coalition or not. Finding the core coalition depends on factors such as the other possible feasible solutions and the payoffs available from these solutions. These factors, and the complexity they generate, are discussed in the paper

Interactive Agent-Based Simulation for Experimentation: A Case Study with Cooperatve Game Theory

Incorporating human behavior is a current challenge for agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). Human behavior includes many different aspects depending on the scenario considered. The scenario context of this paper is strategic coalition formation, which is traditionally modeled using cooperative game theory, but we use ABMS instead; as such, it needs to be validated. One approach to validation is to compare the recorded behavior of humans to what was observed in our simulation. We suggest that using an interactive simulation is a good approach to collecting the necessary human behavior data because the humans would be playing in precisely the same context as the computerized agents. However, such a validation approach may be suspectable to extraneous effects. In this paper, we conducted a correlation research experiment that included an investigation into whether game theory experience, an extraneous variable, affects human behavior in our interactive simulation; our results indicate that it did not make a significant difference. However, in only 42 percent of the trials did the human participants’ behavior result in an outcome predicted by the underlying theory used in our model, i.e., cooperative game theory. This paper also provides a detailed case study for creating an interactive simulation for experimentation

A study of strategic group based on main melody analysis - application on an industry in China

At present, the tremendous change in the industrial environment affects both enterprise and industry, while the core values of strategic management are also being transformed into innovation, collaboration and common development in line with the idea of sustainable development. In this paper, a method of studying strategic group was proposed on the basis of current thinking about the relationship between enterprises in industry and corporate strategic behavior and subsequently its application was illustrated in the performance data of 41 listed companies in an industry in China in 2012–2016. The main melody analysis based on synergy and Jingyou theory was used to classify and analyze the strategic groups in industry. Results obtained from this study such as the distributive features of strategic groups in industry, the main developing mode of industry, the main strategic group, the benchmark and synergistic partner will be of significance in the development of strategic group theory and the practice of modern strategic management

Finding Core Members of a Hedonic Game

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a frequently used paradigm for social simulation; however, there is little evidence of its use in strategic coalition formations. There are few models that explore coalition formation and even fewer that validate their results against an expected outcome. Cooperative game theory is often used to study strategic coalition formation but solving games involving a significant number of agents is computationally intractable. However, there is a natural linkage between ABM and the study of strategic coalition formation. A foundational feature of ABM is the interaction of agents and their environment. Coalition formation is primarily the result of interactions between agents to form collective groups. The ABM paradigm provides a platform in which simple rules and interactions between agents can produce a macro level effect without large computational requirements. This research proposes a hybrid model combining Agent-based modeling and cooperative game theory to find members of a cooperative game’s solution. The algorithm will be applied to the core solution of hedonic games. The core solution is the most common solution set. Hedonic games are a subset of cooperative games whereby agents’ utilities are defined solely by a preference relation over the coalitions of which they are members. The utility of an agent is non-transferrable; there can be no transfer, wholly or in part, of the utility of one agent to another. Determining the core of a hedonic game is NP-complete. The heuristic algorithm utilizes the stochastic nature of ABM interactions to minimize computational complexity. The algorithm has seven coalition formation functions. Each function randomly selects agents to create new coalitions; if the new coalition improves the utility of the agents, it is incorporated into the coalition structure otherwise it is discarded. This approach reduces the computational requirements. This work contributes to the modeling and simulation body of knowledge by providing researchers with a generalized ABM algorithm for forming strategic coalition structures. It provides an empirically validated model based on existing theory that utilizes sound mathematics to reduce the computational complexity and demonstrates the advantages of combining strategic, analytical models with Agent-based models for the study of coalition formation

Data-driven & Theory-driven Science : Artificial Realities and Applications to Savings Groups

Paper I and Paper II is not published yet. They are excluded from the dissertation until they will be published.The scientific process is neither unique nor nomic. Two processes of scientific inquiry are theory-driven and data-driven science. This dissertation analyzes savings groups using theory-driven and data-driven methods. Simulated realities-based on data-driven theory-are used to understand the emerging dynamics of savings groups. Savings groups are grassroots, community-based organizations composed of 15 to 30 members. These organizations-usually supported by international development agencies-have weekly meetings during a cycle of operations that typically lasts a year. In the groups, savings are kept in two funds: a fund for loans and a social welfare fund that covers life-cycle events. The findings of Papers A to D in this dissertation provide new large-sample evidence about savings groups, their dynamics, and the factors affecting their financial performance. In practice, the results of Paper A to D shed light on the best policies to promote sustainable development with informal finance in a cost-effective way. A theory-driven approach indicates that the social fund in savings groups stimulates loan allocation among risk-sharing members, while implicitly covering idiosyncratic risks (Paper A). A data-driven approach based on Bayesian data-mining reveals that the macroeconomic environment and the facilitation model of development agencies have a strong influence on the profit-generating capacity of savings groups (Paper B). Machine-learning methods further show that business training is not the most frequent program implemented by development agencies, but it is in fact the most powerful intervention to encourage profits, particularly when a development agency stops working with a group and leaves a community (Paper C). Finally, the simulation of a village with artificial agents indicates that the businesses of savings groups can have higher profits due to the consolidation of social capital and the competitive advantage created through a process of homophily (Paper D). Metatheoretically, the theory-driven and data-driven approaches of this dissertation-and the complementarity between these approaches-contribute to the epistemology of data-intensive science. The dissertation concludes that the gelstaltic and quasi-teleological explanations of the data-driven approach help to the formulation of theories through inductive and abductive reasoning.publishedVersio

Emergency operations center organizational structure during disasters a qualitative study

This dissertation explores the State of Oklahoma Emergency Operations Center (EOC) organizational structure before and during disaster response. I utilized the lens of contingency theory to review prior EOC research and linked it with mechanistic and organic structures. After the review of literature, I developed the following research question: in what ways is a state-level emergency operations center (EOC) mechanistic or organic, and how do these organizational constructs influence disaster response?I utilized two methodological analyses to answer this research question. Content analysis is the first methodology I employed. Subsequently I analyzed three training documents from the federal government and one planning document from the State of Oklahoma. My analysis of the four documents revealed: 1) EOC organization swings between mechanistic and organic, 2) there are hidden organic structural elements, and 3) staff networking is essential. To better explore these three concepts, I conducted a second methodology involving semi-structured qualitative interviews. I used grounded theory methodology (GTM) and data driven codes to interpret the interview data. Interview results demonstrated 1) EOCs are dynamic organizations, 2) environmental cues are vital to staff completing their job, and 3) staff networking leads to relationship building and trust.Utilizing the literature I reviewed and the two qualitative analyses I conducted, I arrived at four suggestions: 1) training documents should illustrate EOC structure as dynamic, 2) networking among staff allows for trust and coordination, 3) staff refine their role during disasters and throughout the next disaster, and 4) staff must learn the hidden organic elements of the EOC. I combined all these elements into suggestions for future scholarly research on EOCs

행위자 기반 모형을 바탕으로

학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :환경대학원 환경계획학과,2019. 8. 윤순진.Development of ecotourism focusing on forest recreation and healing services is expanding by utilizing geographical conditions rich in forest resources. Participation in community decision making is essential for sustainable development based on full consideration of the economic, social and environmental impacts that development projects can have on the region. The agent-based model which is used in many fields, is useful for in-depth analysis of the relationship between the major factors of the village project decision making process through computer simulation by simplifying the behavior rules and attributes of actors. The agent-based model of this study was based on the questionnaire of Cheongyang-gun Gwanggeum-ri, and discussed how the support and participation of the residents in the development of forest healing tourism was changed. Deliberative democracy means a process in which citizens participate in a common problem and form consensus by forming and changing preferences through reflective communication and learning. If the unanimous rational consensus based on enlightened understanding and validity argument is first generation deliberation, recently second generation deliberation, which considers the consensus on the competing preferences of acceptable extent to respect narratives, feelings and differences, has been highlighted. On the other hand, social capital is intangible asset formed by actors' cooperative social action, and it has been studied that community development and residents' attitude are influenced. According to social influence theory which emphasizes the actor's interaction in the network as social capital, actors conform the opinions and actions of others. The consensus formation model of opinion dynamics as a mechanism of deliberation and social capital assumes that opinions converge to other actors. The FJ model and the Deffuant model are the representative mechanisms of opinion dynamics that are recognized to explain the process of exchanging actors through various experiments and case studies. In the former, the smaller the influence of the other, the more the stereotypes of the person are maintained. In the latter, the exchange of opinions occurs when the disagreement with the other is smaller than the uncertainty of oneself. In order to examine the process of change of the support for the project in the rural village, we compared the FJ model, the FJ expansion model, the Deffuant model and the Deffuant relative model. The FJ extension model considers both positive and negative impacts in addition to a single opinion of support, and Deffuant's relative model exchanges opinions on the basis of the relative agreement between the range of oneselfs opinion and the range of the others opinion. Each scenario was analyzed by various factors. The baseline scenario was set up to periodically study and discuss the village project through village meetings run by the intermediary support organization along with neighborhood communication. It is possible to grasp the degree of consensus based on the high degree of support for village projects and high opinion convergence, which can help understand how deliberation works. As a result of the simulation, the intermediary support organization meeting increases the level of project support and the level of opinion convergence. This is mainly due to learning and there is a tendency to converge a little more through discussions. Learning shows both the features of the first generation and the second generation deliberation, and discussion can be approached from the perspective of the second generation deliberation. The difference between the two models is that the FJ models has a slightly lower project support and a higher degree of opinion convergence than the Deffuant models. Because of the stereotypical effect, the tendency for opinions to converge to a single point in the FJ series is weaker but forms a mutually agreeable set of opinions in a similar direction category, which is a second generation deliberation. Deffuant models can be viewed as a first generation deliberation because it tends to converge to a single point. Depending on the degree of difference and uncertainty, the opposition residents may not change their opinions, which could act as a conflict factor in the consensus of the community. In addition, the FJ expansion model has a slightly lower project support due to the positive impact recognition and the negative impact recognition as compared with the FJ model, and the Deffuant relative model was characterized by a slightly less increase in project support because it emphasized the similarity of opinions compared with the Deffuant model. The major feature of the project support model simulation result is the deliberation function of social capital. It can be seen that the opinions about the project converge in the scenarios where only the neighborhood communication are performed without the intermediary support organization meeting. Project support has declined somewhat, because the people who strongly support the project are more open to accepting opinions from less open-minded people. When social capital is actively exchanged for project through the network, consensus-oriented decision-making has been carried out as a process of gradually narrowing down the opinions. Therefore, the function of deliberation has been carried out in a pluralistic society, which can be interpreted as the second generation deliberation. Although there are some cases where the residents do not communicate with their neighbors about the project, opinions are less likely to converge than those of the intermediate support organization meetings. However, when many residents exchange opinions about the project, opinions are grouped into similar categories at a certain level. In the case of scenarios in which interim support organization meetings are held and operated, it may be seen as negative for the decline of project support due to neighbors' communication, but there is a positive aspect from the viewpoint of the second generation deliberation as the degree of convergence is maintained or slightly converged. The project participation model based on the theory of planned action is a mechanism which residents participate if the participation intention utility is above a certain threshold. The participation intention utility consists of attitude that comprehensively assesses the economic impact of the project, subjective norm as perceived social influence of others connected to the network, perceived behavioral control as confidence in project performance based on project knowledge and decision making influence as deliberation. Since the subjective norm utility is greatly influenced by the level of the percentage of participants in the previous year, the common finding in various scenarios is a clear social capital effect as subjective norm. The increase in project knowledge through intensive learning leads to an increase in the perceived behavioral control utility and the effect of exceeding the threshold of the total participation intention utility. This leads to an increase in the number of participants, and the subjective norm is a basis for exercising a great influence on the residents. The education absence scenario shows the lowest participation rate, which shows the important role of education. In the scenario where education is conducted every five years, the higher participation rate in the second half than the baseline scenario confirms the need for periodic education. In addition to education, the factor that plays the role of deliberation in the participation model is the attitude. As the rational calculation of the cost benefit, the deliberation may affect the participation of the residents in the project. In the support model for the village project decision making process, the intermediary support organization meeting is characterized by the first generation deliberation and the second generation deliberation, and the social capital of the neighbor communication is characterized by the characteristics of the second generation deliberation and may be contrary to the first generation deliberation of the intermediary support organization meeting . In the participation model, it was found that the deliberation process such as learning plays a role of promoting the social influence of social capital. The policy suggestions based on the results of this study are that it is necessary to strengthen the on-site consulting of the intermediary support organization in order to activate the deliberation of the village project decision making, and it is desirable to integrate it as part of the social impact assessment process. On the other hand, the decision making model of rural village tourism development project of this study can be applied to other types of project such as non-economic community development project in city or large scale conflict project through revision.산림 자원이 풍부한 지리적 여건을 활용하여 산림휴양치유 서비스에 초점을 맞춘 생태 관광 개발이 확대되고 있다. 개발 사업이 지역에 미칠 수 있는 경제적, 사회적, 환경적 영향에 대한 충분한 고려를 바탕으로 지속가능한 발전이 이루어지기 위해서는 공동체의 의사결정 참여가 필수적이다. 많은 분야에서 활용되고 있는 행위자 기반 모형은 행위자들의 행동 규칙과 속성을 단순화시켜서 컴퓨터 시뮬레이션을 통해 마을 사업 의사결정 과정의 주요 요인 간 관계를 심층적으로 분석하는 데 있어 유용하다. 이 연구의 행위자 기반 모형은 청양 광금리 설문조사를 바탕으로 산림휴양치유 관광 개발 과정에서 주민들의 사업에 대한 지지와 참여가 어떻게 달라지는지 심의와 사회 자본의 관점을 중심에 두고 살펴보았다. 심의 민주주의는 공통의 문제에 대해 시민들이 참여하여 성찰적 의사소통과 학습을 통해 선호를 형성하고 변화시키면서 합의를 도출하는 과정을 의미한다. 계몽된 이해와 타당성 논증에 기반한 하버마스식 만장일치의 합리적 합의가 1세대 심의라면, 내러티브, 감정, 차이를 존중하며 수용가능한 범위의 경쟁하는 선호에 대한 동의를 합의로 간주하는 2세대 심의가 최근 중요하게 부각되고 있다. 한편 사회 자본이 행위자들의 협력적 사회 작용에서 형성되는 무형의 자산으로 공동체 개발과 주민 태도에 영향을 미친다는 연구가 많이 이루어졌다. 사회 자본으로서 네트워크를 통한 행위자의 상호작용을 강조하는 사회 영향 이론에 따르면, 타자의 의견과 행동을 따라가는 동조 현상이 나타난다. 심의와 사회 자본의 작동 메커니즘으로서 의견 역학의 합의 형성 모형은 다른 행위자 쪽으로 의견이 이동하여 수렴하는 것을 가정한다. 여러 실험과 사례 연구를 통해 행위자들의 의견 교환 과정을 잘 설명하는 것으로 인정받는 대표적인 의견 역학 메커니즘으로 FJ 모형과 Deffuant 모형이 있다. 전자는 상대방의 영향력이 작을수록 본인의 고정관념이 더 유지되고, 후자는 상대방과 의견 차이가 본인의 불확실성보다 작을 때 의견 교환이 일어난다. 농산촌에서 산림휴양치유사업을 추진할 때 사업에 대한 지지도의 변화 과정을 다양한 측면에서 살펴보기 위해 FJ 모형, FJ 확장 모형, Deffuant 모형, Deffuant 상대 모형을 비교 검토하였다. FJ 확장 모형은 지지도의 단일 의견 이외에 긍정 영향 인식과 부정 영향 인식을 함께 고려하고, Deffuant 상대 모형은 상대방의 의견 범위와 본인의 의견 범위의 상대적 동의 정도를 기준으로 의견을 교환한다. 각 모형에 대해 다양하게 요인을 조정한 시나리오 분석을 수행하였다. 기준 시나리오는 이웃 교류와 함께 중간지원조직이 운영하는 마을 회의를 통해 마을 사업에 대한 학습과 토의가 주기적으로 진행되는 것으로 설정하였다. 마을 사업에 대한 높은 지지도와 높은 의견 수렴성을 기준으로 합의 정도를 파악할 수 있으며, 이를 통해 심의가 어떤 식으로 기능하는지 이해할 수 있다. 시뮬레이션 결과 중간지원조직 회의를 통해 사업 지지도가 상승하고 의견 수렴 정도가 높아지는데, 이는 주로 학습에 의한 것이며 토의를 통해 약간 더 수렴되는 측면이 있다. 학습은 1세대 심의와 2세대 심의 특징을 모두 보이며, 토의는 2세대 심의 측면에서 접근할 수 있다. 모형 간 차이로는 FJ 계열이 Deffuant 계열보다 사업 지지도가 상대적으로 약간 더 적게 상승하고, 의견 수렴 정도는 상대적으로 더 높았다. 고정관념 효과가 있기 때문에 FJ 계열에서 의견이 단일 지점으로 모이는 경향은 더 약하지만 비슷한 방향성의 범주에서 상호 동의가능한 수준의 의견 집합이 형성되는데, 이는 2세대 심의에 해당된다. Deffuant 계열의 경우 단일 지점으로 수렴되는 경향이 강하기 때문에 일정 부분 1세대 심의로 볼 수 있는데, 의견 차이와 불확실성 정도에 따라 반대 주민이 의견을 전혀 바꾸지 않으면 공동체의 합의에 갈등 요소로 작용할 수 있다. 그리고 FJ 확장 모형은 FJ 모형과 비교하여 긍정 영향 인식과 부정 영향 인식에 의해 사업 지지도가 약간 덜 상승하고, Deffuant 상대 모형은 Deffuant 모형과 비교하여 의견 유사성이 더 강조되기 때문에 사업 지지도가 약간 덜 상승하는 결과를 보이는 특징이 있었다. 사업 지지도 모형 시뮬레이션 결과 나타난 큰 특징은 사회 자본의 심의 기능이다. 중간지원조직 회의 없이 이웃 교류만 이루어지는 시나리오에서 사업에 대한 의견이 수렴되는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 사업 지지도는 다소 하락했는데, 사업을 강하게 지지하는 주민들의 개방성이 높아서, 덜 개방적인 사람들의 의견을 수용했기 때문이다. 네트워크를 통한 사업에 대한 활발한 의견 교환을 사회 자본이라고 할 때, 조금씩 의견을 좁혀나가는 과정으로서 합의지향적 의사결정이 이루어졌기 때문에, 다원주의 사회에서 심의 기능이 수행되었다고 볼 수 있으며, 이는 2세대 심의로 해석될 여지가 있다. 주민에 따라 이웃과 사업에 대한 소통을 하지 않는 경우도 있기 때문에 중간지원조직 회의보다 의견 수렴 정도는 약하지만, 다수의 주민이 사업에 대해 의견을 교환하다보면 의견이 일정 수준 이상 비슷한 범주로 묶이게 된다. 중간지원조직 회의가 운영되다가 중단되는 시나리오의 경우 이웃 교류에 의해 사업 지지도가 하락하는 것에 대해 부정적으로 볼 수도 있지만, 의견 수렴 정도는 유지되거나 약간 더 수렴되기 때문에 2세대 심의 관점에서는 긍정적인 측면도 있다. 계획 행동 이론에 기반한 사업 참여 모형은 사업의 경제적 영향을 종합적으로 평가하는 심의로서 태도, 네트워크에 연결된 타인의 사회적 영향으로서 주관적 규범, 심의 요인으로 사업 지식과 의사결정 영향력에 의한 행동 수행 능력의 자신감을 나타내는 지각된 행동 통제의 효용에 의해 참여 의도가 결정되고, 효용이 일정 기준 이상이면 참여하는 메커니즘이다. 태도와 지각된 행동 통제가 시간에 따른 변동폭이 크지 않은 것에 비해, 주관적 규범 효용은 전년도 사업 참여자 비율 수준에 크게 영향을 받기 때문에, 여러 가지 시나리오에서 공통적으로 발견되는 사항은 주관적 규범으로서 사회 자본의 분명한 효과라고 할 수 있다. 집중적인 학습을 통한 사업 지식 상승은 지각된 행동 통제 효용의 증가와 전체 참여 의도 효용의 기준치를 넘기는 효과로 이어지고, 이는 참여자 수의 증대로 연결되면서 주관적 규범이 주민들에게 큰 영향을 행사하는 기반이 된다. 교육 부재 시나리오는 가장 낮은 참여율을 보이는데, 이는 교육의 중요한 역할을 알려준다. 5년 마다 교육이 이루어지는 시나리오에서, 후반기에 기준 시나리오보다 참여율이 높은 것은 주기적인 교육의 필요성을 확인시켜준다. 교육과 함께 참여 모형에서 심의 기능을 담당하는 요인은 태도인데, 비용 편익에 대한 합리적 계산으로서 심의는 주민의 사업 참여에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 마을 사업 의사결정 과정에 대한 지지도 모형에서는 중간지원조직 회의가 1세대 심의와 2세대 심의 특성이 있고, 이웃 교류의 사회 자본이 2세대 심의 특성과 함께 중간지원조직 회의의 1세대 심의에 반하는 측면을 나타낼 수 있음을 파악하였다. 참여 모형에서는 학습 등의 심의 과정이 사회 자본의 사회적 영향의 촉진제 역할을 하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 연구 결과를 바탕으로 도출한 정책 제언은 마을 사업 의사결정의 심의 활성화를 위해 중간지원조직의 현장 컨설팅이 강화될 필요가 있으며, 이는 사회영향평가 과정의 일환으로 통합되는 것이 바람직하다는 것이다. 한편 이 연구의 농산촌 관광 개발 사업 의사결정 모형은 수정보완을 통해 도시의 비경제적 마을만들기사업이나 대규모 갈등 사업과 같은 다른 사업 유형에 적용해볼 수 있을 것이다.제 1 장 서 론 1 제 1 절 연구의 배경과 목적 1 1. 연구 배경 1 2. 연구 목적 6 제 2 절 연구의 내용과 구성 10 1. 연구 대상 10 2. 연구 방법 14 3. 연구의 흐름과 구성 16 제 2 장 이론적 배경과 선행연구 검토 18 제 1 절 심의 민주주의와 사회 자본 이론 18 1. 심의 민주주의 18 2. 사회 자본 30 제 2 절 행위자 기반 모형 선행연구 검토 42 1. 행위자 기반 모형과 의사결정 42 2. 의사결정 모형 주요 요소 50 제 3 절 관광 개발 의사결정 선행연구 검토 60 1. 관광 개발 지지와 참여 60 2. 농산촌 관광 개발 71 제 4 절 개념적 분석틀 83 제 3 장 분석 방법 89 제 1 절 조사 설계 89 1. 설문 구성 89 2. 설문 대상과 분석 방법 93 3. 마을 정보 96 제 2 절 모형 설계 101 1. 마을 사업 의사결정 모형 101 2. 사업 지지도 모형 106 3. 사업 참여 모형 143 제 3 절 시나리오 구성 167 1. 사업 지지도 모형 167 2. 사업 참여 모형 173 제 4 절 민감도 분석 176 1. 개요 176 2. 분석 결과 179 제 4 장 심의와 사회 자본의 효과 184 제 1 절 기준 시나리오 184 1. 사업 지지도 모형 184 2. 사업 참여 모형 191 제 2 절 사업 지지도 모형 비교 197 1. 학습과 토의 197 2. 사회 자본 202 제 3 절 시나리오 비교 206 1. 학습과 토의 206 2. 사회 자본 211 제 4 절 종합 및 시사점 216 1. 심의와 사회 자본의 관계 216 2. 정책 제언 228 3. 다른 사업 유형 적용 235 제 5 장 결 론 240 제 1 절 연구의 요약 240 제 2 절 연구의 의의와 한계 247 참고문헌 251 부록Ⅰ: 설문조사지 280 부록Ⅱ: 민감도 분석 결과 286 Abstract 293Docto