Bayesian testing procedure on the lifetime performance index of products following Chen lifetime distribution based on the progressive type-II censored sample

[[abstract]]With the high demands on the quality of high-tech products for consumers, assuring the lifetime performance is a very important task for competitive manufacturing industries. The lifetime performance index CL is frequently used to monitor the larger-the-better lifetime performance of products. This research is related to the topic of asymmetrical probability distributions and applications across disciplines. Chen lifetime distribution with a bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function has many applications in the lifetime data analysis. We derived the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) for CL, and we used this estimator to develop a hypothesis testing procedure of CL under a lower specification limit based on the progressive type-II censored sample. The Bayesian estimator for CL is also derived, and it is used to develop another hypothesis testing procedure. A simulation study is conducted to compare the average confidence levels for two procedures. Finally, one practical example is given to illustrate the implementation of our proposed non-Bayesian and Bayesian testing procedure.[[notice]]補正完

The evaluation on the process capability index CL for exponentiated Frech’et lifetime product under progressive type I interval censoring

[[abstract]]We present the likelihood inferences on the lifetime performance index CL to evaluate the performance of lifetimes of products following the skewed Exponentiated Frech’et distribution in many manufacturing industries. This research is related to the topic of skewed Probability Distributions and Applications across Disciplines. Exponentiated Frech’et distribution is a generalization of some lifetime distributions. The maximum likelihood estimator for CL for lifetimes with exponentiated Frech’et distribution is derived to develop a computational testing procedure so that experimenters can implement it to test whether the lifetime performance reached the pre-assigned level of significance with a given lower specification limit under progressive type I interval censoring. At the end, two examples are provided to demonstrate the implementation on the algorithm for our proposed computational testing procedure.[[notice]]補正完

Actuarial applications of survival analysis in healthcare

Healthcare actuaries are increasingly responsible for advising their employers and clients in areas of managed care. Managed care links traditional health actuarial financial work to areas of medical practice, to address the fundamental question: what works? These relatively new responsibilities have required an expansion of actuarial techniques into non-traditional areas, and, in particular, epidemiology and biostatistics. This study is about a specific area of statistics, survival analysis, a topic of great potential application in non-traditional managed care actuarial practice. Survival analysis is used frequently in biostatistics to evaluate the efficacy of treatments and to identify factors that contribute to patient survival. In this study, we illustrate three applications of survival models to solve real-world problems in areas of health actuarial practice: the estimation of survival of permanently disabled workers receiving lifetime benefits for occupational illness and injury, the rate at which seriously ill hospice patients, at risk of polypharmacy, are weaned from non-life sustaining drugs, and the ability to predict, using a model incorporating drug dosage information and specifically changes in dosage, changes in expected future lifetimes of hospice patients. All three case studies are examples of practical models that can be applied within a business context. The study will serve a more important purpose, if it shows health actuaries the potential value of the application of a non-traditional technique within their evolving practice

An economic analysis of the quality of primary care for the management of comorbidities in patients living with dementia

The thesis examines the quality of primary care services across a range of comorbid conditions in patients with dementia. The key aims were to assess whether their dementia diagnoses may hinder access to high quality care compared to patients without a cognitive impairment older adults, the health implications of this, and whether quality could be modified. An economic framework is proposed, suggesting that the quality of care received is a function of the supply and demand for quality. Patients with dementia may have a diminishing demand for quality due to a decreased comprehension of their health status as cognitive function declines. On the supply side, quality care provided by physicians may be a function of the availability of resources and the motivation to provide high quality care, which could be financial or not. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis was conducted and highlighted that a diagnosis of dementia is associated with not meeting quality indicators for a range of non-dementia conditions. Subsequent analysis on the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing, including care quality indicators specifically selected for UK older adults, supports these findings in suggesting that quality is unequal between patients with dementia and patients without cognitive impairments. Further analysis showed that meeting some of these indicators was associated with improved survival and could reduce social care use in patients with dementia, implying that care quality should be improved. In order to assess how care quality and the consequential health outcomes could be improved for patients with dementia, later analyses in this thesis aimed to identify interventions or policies that could improve care quality. Pay-for-performance measures (the Quality and Outcomes Framework) as well as higher levels of cognitive function in patients with dementia appear to be associated with higher quality care. I developed an early model to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing a cognition and independence promoting intervention or expanding the QOF to provide additional incentives for patients with dementia. Expanding the QOF does not appear to be cost-effective compared to current practices, though there may be some benefit in promoting cognition and independence in patients with dementia. However, further research on the valuation of health in patients with dementia is required to validate these findings within current willingness-to-pay frameworks for healthcare. The findings of this thesis show that there are some inequalities in the delivery of high-quality primary care, to the detriment of health of patients with dementia. It is implicated that there may be economically efficient strategies to improve health outcomes for patients with dementia by promoting independence

Book of Abstracts of SPE 2021

Book of Abstracts of SPE 202