The Inflationary Process in Israel: Shocks and Accommodation

The rate of inflation in Israel increased from 8 percent in 1965 to 300-400 percent in the first half of 1984. The inflationary process until 1977 was not qualitatively different from that in the OECD countries, but after the financial liberalization of 1977 the economy appeared to move into a new era in which the inflation rate seemed capable only of rising. Our explanation of the inflationary process is that because of institutional adaptations, and as a result of accommodating monetary and fiscal policies, the stabilizing forces in the economy are so weak that the inflation rate is in a meta-stable equilibrium. We ascribe the apparent asymmetry of the inflation to the expansionary underlying thrust of monetary and fiscal policy. We develop an analytical framework that assigns roles to indexation, to the financial structure, and to the exchange rate system in determining the dynamics of the economy. We place very little blame for the inflation on wage indexation, which has been incomplete, but we regard the extensive indexation of the returns on financial assets, and the steady shift out of nominal assets, as major contributing factors, for the economy is now left with virtually no nominal anchor. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of alternative stabilization plans, arguing that a successful stabilization program will have to be comprehensive and rapid.

Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan's Money Market Data

This paper quantifies the policy duration effect of the zero interest rate policy implemented in Japan from February 1999 to August 2000. Our empirical analysis shows that the policy duration effect observed in Japanese financial markets emerged via the expectations channel on the future course of monetary policy actions, supplemented significantly by liquidity effects in the severe financial conditions. This finding leads to the policy implication that the effectiveness of the zero interest rate policy depends crucially on the financial and economic conditions.

THE BRITISH OPT-OUT FROM THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MONETARY POLICY RULES

We analyze the current state of the monetary integration in Europe focusing on the UK position regarding the European Monetary Union. The interest rates decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are compared through different specifications of the Taylor Rule. The comparison of the monetary conducts provides a useful feedback when looking for the differences claimed by the British government as motivating the UK refusal to join the European Monetary Union. Testing for a forward looking behavior and possible asymmetries in the policy responses, we show evidence supporting the opt-out by the UK monetary authorities.Taylor rule; European monetary integration; Regime switching models; Interest rate smoothing.

Monetary policy in an economy with nominal wage contracts

A demonstration that optimal monetary policy can be either procyclical or countercyclical in a model where wages are "sticky" because of a nominal contracting constraint.Monetary policy ; Wages

Effects of Global Financial Crisis

The financial crisis of 2007–2009 has been called the worst financial crisis since the one related to the Great Depression by leading economists, and it contributed to the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars, substantial financial commitments incurred by governments, and a significant decline in economic activity. Many causes have been proposed, with varying weight assigned by experts. Both market-based and regulatory solutions have been implemented or are under consideration, while significant risks remain for the world economy.financial crisis; globalization; consumer wealth; financial markets; corporate governance.

Unconventional monetary policy in the UK: a modern money critique

The ongoing Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has posed a growing challenge to the implementation of monetary stimulus measures in both sovereign (e.g. US, UK, Japan) and non-sovereign (eurozone) economies. With the policy rate close to the zero nominal bound, the UK has relied on quantitative easing, ostensibly to improve market liquidity and/or stimulate economic activity, despite being freed from the policy constraints of a non-sovereign economy. The evidence regarding the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing is, however, largely inconclusive. Meanwhile, UK growth forecasts have been revised downwards but, at the time of writing, the government remains committed to its fiscal austerity programme. In this paper we explore the origins of quantitative easing, its underlying objectives, the theoretical arguments for its use and the empirical evidence concerning its impact. Our analysis focuses on the policies of the Bank of England since the advent of the GFC, and is informed by the principles of Modern Monetary Theory

Can financial frictions help explain the performance of the us fed?

This paper analyzes the contribution of additional factors, apart from monetary policy, to the stabilization of the economy observed in the US since the 1980s. I estimate a limited participation model with financial frictions, allowing for changes in the interest rate rule, financial frictions, and shock processes. The results confirm the well-known differences in the interest rate rules between subsamples. However, when monitoring costs are considered, these differences are much smaller. A comparison of fit across several specifications finds that a decrease in financial frictions was more important than changed monetary policy or changed shock processes in stabilizing the economy. These results highlight the important differences in the effects of shocks and policies between limited participation and sticky price models

Why intervention rarely works

Foreign-exchange-market intervention is generally ineffective when undertaken independent of monetary policy. But when undertaken as a goal of monetary policy, exchange-rate management can compromise price stability. This Economic Commentary explains the difficulties of implementing an intervention policy.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation ; Monetary policy