"The Road to Debt Deflation, Debt Peonage, and Neofeudalism"

What is called "capitalism" is best understood as a series of stages. Industrial capitalism has given way to finance capitalism, which has passed through pension fund capitalism since the 1950s and a US-centered monetary imperialism since 1971, when the fiat dollar (created mainly to finance US global military spending) became the world's monetary base. Fiat dollar credit made possible the bubble economy after 1980, and its substage of casino capitalism. These economically radioactive decay stages resolved into debt deflation after 2008, and are now settling into a leaden debt peonage and the austerity of neo-serfdom. The end product of today's Western capitalism is a neo-rentier economy—precisely what industrial capitalism and classical economists set out to replace during the Progressive Era from the late 19th to early 20th century. A financial class has usurped the role that landlords used to play—a class living off special privilege. Most economic rent is now paid out as interest. This rake-off interrupts the circular flow between production and consumption, causing economic shrinkage—a dynamic that is the opposite of industrial capitalism’s original impulse. The "miracle of compound interest," reinforced now by fiat credit creation, is cannibalizing industrial capital as well as the returns to labor. The political thrust of industrial capitalism was toward democratic parliamentary reform to break the stranglehold of landlords on national tax systems. But today's finance capital is inherently oligarchic. It seeks to capture the government—first and foremost the treasury, central bank, and courts—to enrich (indeed, to bail out) and untax the banking and financial sector and its major clients: real estate and monopolies. This is why financial "technocrats" (proxies and factotums for high finance) were imposed in Greece, and why Germany opposed a public referendum on the European Central Bank’s austerity program.Debt Deflation; Neofeudalism; Economic Rent; Finance Capitalism; Classical Political Economy; Pension Fund Capitalism; Bubble Economy

A Survey of Green Networking Research

Reduction of unnecessary energy consumption is becoming a major concern in wired networking, because of the potential economical benefits and of its expected environmental impact. These issues, usually referred to as "green networking", relate to embedding energy-awareness in the design, in the devices and in the protocols of networks. In this work, we first formulate a more precise definition of the "green" attribute. We furthermore identify a few paradigms that are the key enablers of energy-aware networking research. We then overview the current state of the art and provide a taxonomy of the relevant work, with a special focus on wired networking. At a high level, we identify four branches of green networking research that stem from different observations on the root causes of energy waste, namely (i) Adaptive Link Rate, (ii) Interface proxying, (iii) Energy-aware infrastructures and (iv) Energy-aware applications. In this work, we do not only explore specific proposals pertaining to each of the above branches, but also offer a perspective for research.Comment: Index Terms: Green Networking; Wired Networks; Adaptive Link Rate; Interface Proxying; Energy-aware Infrastructures; Energy-aware Applications. 18 pages, 6 figures, 2 table

“Large” vs. “small” players: A closer look at the dynamics of speculative attacks

What is the role of “large players” like hedge funds and other highly leveraged institutions in speculative attacks? In recent theoretical work, large players may induce an attack by an early move, providing information to smaller agents. In contrast, many observers argue that large players are in the rear. We propose a model that allows both the large player to move early in order to induce speculation by small players, or wait so as to benefit from a high interest rate prior to the attack. Using data on net positions of “large” (foreigners) and “small” (locals) players,we find that large players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone (NOK) during the1990s: The ERM-crisis of 1992, the NOK-pressure in 1997, and after the Russian moratorium in1998. In 1998 there was a contemporaneous attack on the Swedish krona (SEK) in which large players moved early. Interest rates did not increase in Sweden so there was little to gain by a delayed attack.Speculative attacks, microstructure, international finance, large players

Aid Scepticism and Effective Altruism

In the article, ‘Being Good in a World of Need: Some Empirical Worries and an Uncomfortable Philosophical Possibility,’ Larry Temkin presents some concerns about the possible impact of international aid on the poorest people in the world, suggesting that the nature of the duties of beneficence of the global rich to the global poor are much more murky than some people have made out. In this article, I’ll respond to Temkin from the perspective of effective altruism—one of the targets he attacks. I’ll argue that Temkin’s critique has little empirical justification, given the conclusions he wants to reach, and is therefore impotent

KULLANICI EĞİLİMLERİNE YÖNELİK TASARIM: BANYO ORTAMINDA SU ETKİNLİĞİ İÇİN KİŞİSEL BAKIM VE HİJYEN PRATİKLERİNDE DAVRANIŞ DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİ TEŞVİK ETMEK AMACIYLA ERKEN TASARIM AŞAMALARININ DESTEKLENMESİ

Across many regions of the world, the ever-increasing households water demand, mainly shaped through individuals’ unsustainable behaviors, is threatening the water supplies. It is widely acknowledged that design offers possibilities to mitigate the environmental impacts of use behaviors through structuring the ways individuals engage with their surroundings. Though, since behaviors are determined through a range of factors that are difficult to influence, design interventions aimed at reducing the harmful effects of use may not ensure behavior change. Advancing on this problem, this doctoral study aims to understand the behavioral reasons for intensive use of water, reveal the users’ diverse intentions to adopt sustainable behaviors, and identify design strategies for behavior change to support the development of ideas for influencing behaviors for the effective use of water through a study focusing on personal care and hygiene practices in the bathroom environment. To achieve this, it adopts a generative research approach to reveal the individuals’ existing behaviors, attitudes, and intentions concerning water consumption and a research through design approach to effectively communicate the acquired knowledge to inspire the development of diverse ideas for behavior change. Through cycles of designing, implementing, evaluating, and revising, this thesis offers a generative tool (inspiration cards) and a generative method (DUI workshops) and evaluates their implications on the ideation process through a series of design workshops. The proposed inspirations cards and the DUI workshop provide a valuable knowledge source and guidance for the design researchers and practitioners to influence behaviors towards sustainable directions through enabling them to explore the problem area and the user, generate diverse ideas, refine the developed ideas, reconsider the ideas for different user intentions and support their design decisions.Bireylerin sürdürülebilir olmayan davranışlarıyla şekillenerek sürekli artan evsel su talebi, dünyanın birçok bölgesinde su kaynaklarını tehdit etmektedir. Tasarımın, bireylerin çevreleriyle etkileşim kurma biçimlerini etkileyerek, kullanım davranışlarının çevresel etkilerini azaltmaya yönelik olanaklar sunduğu yaygın olarak kabul edilmektedir. Ancak, davranışlar etkilenmesi zor olan birtakım faktörler tarafından belirlendiğinden, kullanımın zararlı etkilerini azaltmayı amaçlayan tasarım müdahaleleri davranış değişikliğini sağlamayabilir. Bu doktora çalışması banyo ortamındaki kişisel bakım ve hijyen pratiklerine odaklanarak, yoğun su kullanımının davranışsal nedenlerinin anlaşılması, kullanıcıların sürdürülebilir davranışları benimsemeye yönelik farklı eğilimlerinin tanımlanması ve davranış değişikliği için tasarım stratejilerinin belirlenmesi aracılığıyla suyun verimli kullanımı için davranışların etkilenmesine yönelik fikir geliştirme sürecinin desteklenmesini hedeflemektedir. Araştırma, su tüketimiyle ilgili mevcut davranışları, tutumları ve niyetleri ortaya çıkarmak için yaratıcı araştırma yöntemlerini ve bu bilginin etkili bir şekilde paylaşılarak davranış değişikliği için çeşitli fikirlerin geliştirilmesine ilham vermek amacıyla tasarım yoluyla araştırma yaklaşımını benimser. Tasarlama, uygulama, değerlendirme ve düzenleme döngüleri aracılığıyla bu tez kapsamında bir yaratıcı araç (ilham kartları) ve yöntem (DUI çalıştayları) geliştirilmiş ve bunların fikir geliştirme süreçlerine yönelik etkileri tasarım çalıştayları aracılığıyla değerlendirilmiştir. İlham kartları ve DUI çalıştayı, problem alanının ve kullanıcının keşfedilmesini, çeşitli fikirlerin üretilmesini ve detaylandırılmasını, farklı kullanıcı eğilimleri için fikirlerin yeniden ele alınmasını ve tasarım kararlarının savunulmasını destekleyerek, davranışların sürdürülebilir yönlerde etkilenmesine yönelik tasarımcılar ve tasarım araştırmacıları için değerli bir bilgi kaynağı ve rehber niteliği taşır.Ph.D. - Doctoral Progra

Human Computation and Economics

This article is devoted to economical aspects of Human Computation (HC) and to perspectives of HC in economics. As of economical aspects of HC, it is first observed that much of what makes HC systems effective is economical in nature suggesting that complexity being reconsidered as a “HC complexity” and the conception of efficient HC systems as a “HC economics”. This article also points to the relevance of HC in the development of standard software and to the importance of competition in HC systems. As of HC in economics, it is first argued that markets can be seen as HC systems avant la lettre. Looking more closely at financial markets, the article then points to a speed differential between transactions and credit risk awareness that compromises the efficiency of financial markets. Finally, a HCbased credit risk rating is proposed that, overcoming the afore mentioned speed differential, holds promise for better functioning financial markets

Uncertainty, Dangerous Optimism, and Speculation: An Inquiry Into Some Limits of Democratic Governance

People are often optimistic. Nearly fifty percent of marriages end in divorce, but one survey found that 100 percent of individuals planning to get married believed they would never get divorced. Most people think they drive better than the average driver, and at one university, ninety-four percent of professors placed themselves in the top fifty percent in terms of teaching skills. We often seem to think we are like the youth of Garrison Keillor’s fictional hometown Lake Wobegon, where “all the children are above average.” This is not always a bad thing. Optimism can be advantageous. Without optimism, Columbus might not have discovered the New World and Steve Jobs might not have started Apple Computer in his parents’ garage. Indeed, without optimism, many of us might not be able to rouse ourselves from our beds each morning to face the day. But optimism poses dangers as well. This Article examines one of the more costly and intractable problems that can arise from optimism: the problem of regulating optimism-driven speculation in financial markets. Part I shows how optimism-driven speculative trading can be a kind of market failure that predictably generates economic losses to society. It begins by defining the difference between risk and uncertainty, and demonstrating how uncertainty (unlike risk) permits subjective disagreement over future values. It then offers a simple model of markets in which relative optimism generates disagreement-based trading in financial instruments and derivative contracts by speculators who hope to profit from predicting future events more accurately than others do. It notes how this sort of disagreement-based trading has received relatively little attention in the modern economic literature, which instead tends to implicitly (and somewhat misleadingly) assume that “speculative” trading is driven not by subjective disagreement in the face of uncertainty, but by differences in traders’ risk aversion and liquidity needs, or differences in their access to certain, but costly, information. Nevertheless, disagreement-based speculative trading represents a form of market failure that deserves attention. Part I demonstrates how transactions driven by uncertainty and disagreement can generate net economic losses by increasing traders’ risks, eroding their returns, and distorting consumption decisions in a fashion that leads to boom-and-bust cycles. Part II then turns to a second, and still more daunting, challenge raised by the phenomenon of dangerous optimism: the challenge that societies that rely on democratic governance face in attempting to use law to limit the social costs of disagreement-based speculation. Part II shows how, just as optimism in the face of uncertainty leads to adverse selection among participants in speculative trading markets, it also leads to adverse selection among participants in democratic political systems. In particular, optimism systematically stunts the development of constituencies that favor reining in costly speculation, both before and after social losses have been incurred. This suggests that democratic institutions may be fundamentally unsuited for dealing with the economic problems that can arise from optimism-fueled financial speculation. Part II develops this argument by examining the history of the regulation of derivatives, perhaps the quintessential speculative financial market. History supports the view that only relatively undemocratic institutions—in particular, courts, independent agencies, and private self-regulatory bodies—have proven successful at stemming social losses from speculative trading. It also offers cautionary lessons into the likely success of the newly enacted Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank) as a regulatory response intended to ward off future speculative crises like those we have just experienced

Why the Law Hates Speculators: Regulation and Private Ordering in the Market for OTC Derivatives

A wide variety of statutory and common law doctrines in American law evidence hostility towards speculation. Conventional economic theory, however, generally views speculation as an efficient form of trading that shifts risk to those who can bear it most easily and improves the accuracy of market prices. This Article reconciles the apparent conflict between legal tradition and economic theory by explaining why some forms of speculative trading may be inefficient. It presents a heterogeneous expectations model of speculative trading that offers important insights into antispeculation laws in general, and the ongoing debate concerning over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives in particular. Although trading in OTC derivatives is presently largely unregulated, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently announced its intention to consider substantively regulating OTC derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). Because the CEA is at heart an antispeculation law, the heterogeneous expectations model of speculation offers policy support for the CFTC\u27s claim of regulatory jurisdiction. This model also, however, suggests an alternative to the apparently binary choice now available to lawmakers (i. e., either regulate OTC derivatives under the CEA, or exempt them). That alternative would be to regulate OTC derivatives in the same manner that the common law traditionally regulated speculative contracts: as permitted, but legally unenforceable, agreements. By requiring derivatives traders to rely on private ordering to ensure the performance of their agreements, this strategy may offer significant advantages in discouraging welfare-reducing speculation based on heterogeneous expectations while protecting more beneficial forms of derivatives trading

Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan.

Most Western economists and policymakers agree that the Yuan is significantly undervalued and push for its quick nominal revaluation. This paper defends that many domestic and foreign factors could be responsible for the Yuan’s undervaluation, and the People’s bank of China (PBC) cannot optimally invest growing foreign exchange reserves. It provides a theoretical framework to discuss the optimal strategy associating a gradual nominal revaluation of the Yuan with higher inflation, and structural and macroeconomic policies to bring the real exchange rate to its equilibrium level. This strategy allows absorbing external imbalances while laying down the foundation for China’s long-term growth.Real revaluation; Yuan; Renminbi (RMB); foreign exchange reserves; external imbalance; macroeconomic adjustment measures.